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California (PA)

Also known as: California (PA)
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1168 (#13) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1170 (#59) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1177 (#21) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +13.0 (#63) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +14.0 (#111) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.798 (#161) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +23.3 More → 0.917 (#187) NetEff +23.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +16.7 More → 0.872 (#172) AdjNet +16.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +16.5 More → 0.873 (#171) AdjNet +16.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 85.0 | AdjD 72.3 More → 0.760 (#166) AdjO 85.0 | AdjD 72.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 82.9 | AdjD 71.5 More → 0.738 (#48) AdjO 82.9 | AdjD 71.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.825 (#46) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.820 (#40) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 102 | GP 21 More → 1288 (#14) RD 102 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs Wheeling L 82 - 85
2025-11-15 @ West Liberty L 67 - 84
2025-11-19 vs Charleston (WV) W 90 - 60
2025-11-22 @ Concord L 79 - 81
2025-11-24 vs Daemen L 64 - 83
2025-11-29 @ Wilmington (DE) W 84 - 77
2025-12-06 @ Bloomsburg W 72 - 52
2025-12-08 vs Bowie St. W 73 - 49
2025-12-09 vs Dominican (CA) W 93 - 71
2025-12-16 vs Shippensburg W 95 - 76
2025-12-20 @ Lock Haven W 63 - 61
2025-12-21 @ Mansfield W 93 - 70
2026-01-02 vs East Stroudsburg W 91 - 72
2026-01-03 vs Kutztown W 91 - 68
2026-01-07 vs Seton Hill W 87 - 78
2026-01-10 vs Gannon W 99 - 88
2026-01-14 @ Clarion L 75 - 81
2026-01-17 vs Edinboro W 82 - 77
2026-01-24 @ Slippery Rock W 86 - 75
2026-01-28 @ Indiana (PA) W 84 - 77
2026-01-31 vs Pitt.-Johnstown W 79 - 68
2026-02-07 @ Gannon L 87 - 115

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Justin Pippen - 1 31.1 24.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 14.0 20.0 - - - 42.9 42.9 100.0 - 66.8 53.6
John Camden - 1 31.2 18.0 8.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 14.0 15.0 - - - 42.9 50.0 100.0 - 60.5 57.1
Bryson Lucas - 21 34.5 17.2 9.0 3.4 2.0 1.1 2.6 13.1 17.0 186 8.5 59.7 51.3 34.0 71.4 1.11 59.6 57.5
Antoine Arnett - 20 32.3 16.9 5.8 1.9 0.4 0.2 2.9 13.6 8.8 154 7.3 53.9 50.4 33.3 59.3 -1.78 54.0 52.0
Jordyn Buchanan - 21 35.2 15.4 4.4 2.2 1.5 0.4 1.4 11.6 10.9 166 7.9 49.7 43.2 36.4 74.4 0.8 58.2 54.5
Dai Dai Ames - 1 31.1 14.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 12.0 - - - 42.9 0.0 50.0 - 44.4 42.9
Brayden Reynolds - 17 33.1 11.7 3.6 4.1 1.2 0.4 2.7 7.0 11.3 86 5.1 37.2 52.1 35.0 68.7 0.93 61.2 55.0
Chris Bell - 1 21.3 11.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 7.0 5.0 - - - 42.9 0.0 100.0 - 59.8 42.9
Dalman Alexander - 16 27.0 10.0 5.8 1.1 0.6 1.6 0.9 6.4 11.8 45 2.8 15.9 58.8 20.0 67.2 1.89 62.7 59.3
Semetri (TT) Carr - 1 17.4 10.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 14.0 - - - 33.3 0 88.9 - 71.8 33.3
Lee Dort - 1 23.1 9.0 6.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 - - - 50.0 0 100.0 - 53.3 50.0
Keondre DeShields - 11 16.6 8.9 3.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 6.9 6.5 14 1.3 10.2 50.0 30.0 80.0 0.61 57.8 53.9
Joshua Ray - 20 19.7 5.2 4.5 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 3.3 8.6 110 5.5 83.3 65.2 0.0 58.1 -2.64 65.3 65.2
Jordan Clayton - 20 15.2 4.7 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.9 3.7 4.0 117 5.8 113.4 54.1 7.1 54.2 0.46 55.6 54.7
Nolan Dorsey - 1 12.2 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 -2.0 - - - 20.0 20.0 0 - 30.0 30.0
DeJuan Campbell - 1 13.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 - - - 25.0 0.0 0 - 25.0 25.0
Mantas Kocanas - 1 1.3 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 - - - 50.0 0.0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Duncan Moy - 8 8.7 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.6 - - - 33.3 22.2 50.0 - 40.9 40.0
Brandon Singleton - 13 4.3 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.2 -17 -1.3 -76.8 30.0 13.3 40.0 -0.11 36.0 35.0
Jayden Daisy - 8 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 4 0.5 80.7 50.0 33.3 0 -0.65 62.5 62.5
Lakai Carter - 6 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 -5 -0.8 -49.2 33.3 33.3 0.0 0.46 38.7 50.0
Calvin Winfrey III - 9 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 31 1.4 10.0 20.0 0.0 100.0 1.34 34.0 20.0
Creston Austin III - 6 1.6 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 -10 -2.0 -161.1 50.0 0 0 -0.39 50.0 50.0
Ibrahim Turay - 8 1.7 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 -2 -0.3 -19.7 100.0 0 0 0.46 100.0 100.0
Shane Reago - 3 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Luke Butler - 1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 162 7.4 47.0 0 0 0 2.31 0 0
BJ Fisher - 1 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Milos Ilic - 1 15.6 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Stephon Marbury II - 1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG