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Cal State LA

Season: 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2019-2020 2018-2019 2016-2017 2015-2016 2014-2015
Also known as: Cal State LA
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1270 (#23) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1296 (#21) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1176 (#11) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.6 More → +24.5 (#12) HCA +2.6
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More → +21.8 (#14) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.909 (#20) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +25.8 More → 0.952 (#36) AdjNet +25.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +26.1 More → 0.955 (#36) AdjNet +26.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 79.3 | AdjD 61.3 More → 0.837 (#26) AdjO 79.3 | AdjD 61.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 78.2 | AdjD 61.4 More → 0.821 (#7) AdjO 78.2 | AdjD 61.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.883 (#23) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.881 (#18) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 115 | GP 27 More → 1273 (#25) RD 115 | GP 27
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. More → Legacy estimate Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast.

2025-2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Seattle Pacific W 75 - 63
2025-11-15 @ Western Wash. W 79 - 78
2025-11-18 @ Azusa Pacific W 73 - 61
2025-12-04 @ Cal Poly Pomona L 49 - 68
2025-12-06 @ CSUSB W 68 - 60
2025-12-13 @ Pepperdine - Incomplete score
2025-12-15 vs Central Wash. L 59 - 74
2025-12-19 vs San Fran. St. W 80 - 57
2025-12-21 vs Cal St. East Bay W 93 - 63
2026-01-02 @ Chico St. L 57 - 60
2026-01-10 vs UC Merced W 96 - 75
2026-01-15 @ Cal St. San Marcos W 83 - 73
2026-01-17 @ Cal St. Monterey Bay W 82 - 64
2026-01-22 vs Cal St. Dom. Hills - Incomplete score
2026-01-24 @ Cal St. Dom. Hills - Incomplete score
2026-01-29 vs Cal Poly Humboldt - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 vs Chico St. - Incomplete score
2026-02-05 @ Cal St. East Bay W 101 - 57
2026-02-07 @ San Fran. St. W 84 - 66
2026-02-12 vs Cal St. Monterey Bay W 76 - 64
2026-02-14 vs Cal St. San Marcos W 73 - 62
2026-02-19 @ UC Merced W 81 - 41
2026-02-21 @ Stanislaus St. W 93 - 45
2026-02-26 vs CSUSB W 79 - 62
2026-02-28 @ Cal Poly Pomona L 70 - 74
2026-03-06 @ Cal Poly Humboldt W 87 - 55
2026-03-07 @ Cal Poly Pomona W 78 - 62
2026-03-13 @ Vanguard L 75 - 79

2025-2026 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Nevaeh Asiasi - 27 37.0 18.9 8.4 3.6 2.7 0.6 3.3 15.6 15.2 373 28 13.3 14.7 46.4 33.9 71.6 3.8 52.9 48.9
Sofia Fidelus - 24 35.5 14.2 4.6 5.0 1.8 0.4 3.2 13.3 9.5 253 25 10.1 11.7 38.8 34.5 73.7 -0.97 48.4 44.7
Ariyah Smith - 25 32.3 9.1 3.0 5.7 2.0 0.0 2.5 9.3 8.1 343 26 13.2 16.7 36.2 28.7 66.1 3.25 44.4 41.2
Mariah Blake - 27 19.9 9.0 6.9 1.1 1.1 0.4 1.3 8.3 9.0 260 28 9.3 18.7 45.3 12.5 70.6 3.2 49.3 46.2
Amaya Fuentes - 27 25.1 8.7 5.4 1.0 0.5 1.2 1.1 7.6 8.1 180 28 6.4 10.6 46.3 30.2 72.0 -1.09 54.2 52.7
Ronyae Jackson - 27 18.3 6.8 4.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.1 5.9 6.1 149 28 5.3 11.9 40.0 24.2 75.0 0.12 48.9 42.5
Kyara Walter - 27 15.4 6.4 1.8 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.6 4.4 4.9 150 28 5.4 14.4 50.4 46.2 65.4 -1.37 66.3 65.5
Gabriella Rones - 19 13.4 4.8 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.3 5.1 2.3 - - - - 32.0 30.8 83.3 - 45.7 44.3
Mary Cotton - 22 12.8 3.6 3.8 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 3.5 5.5 142 23 6.2 21.2 42.9 17.6 73.3 1.85 47.8 44.8
Jaden Newman - 11 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.1 5 9 0.6 7.8 33.3 33.3 0 -1.32 45.8 45.8
Mason Oberg - 3 4.7 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 -0.7 -8 1 -8.0 -22.9 33.3 0.0 0 -2.25 33.3 33.3
Brianna Thomas - 7 2.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 -11 5 -2.2 -30.2 40.0 0.0 0 -3.23 40.0 40.0
Jocelynn Townsend - 18 2.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 -1 17 -0.1 -0.8 25.0 0 0.0 -4.01 23.3 25.0
Paige Worthem - 4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -4 1 -4.0 -121.5 0.0 0 0 -1.68 0.0 0.0
Destiny Walker - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Nia Johnson - 3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 -0.7 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG