Cal State LA
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1143 (#60) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1119 (#75) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1132 (#49) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +18.5 (#29) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +11.4 (#192) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.715 (#283) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.790 (#191) | NetEff +10.2 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.865 (#238) | AdjNet +16.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.873 (#239) | AdjNet +16.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.728 (#228) | AdjO 74.1 | AdjD 63.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.743 (#56) | AdjO 75.6 | AdjD 63.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.763 (#130) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.767 (#123) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1206 (#43) | RD 100 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Seattle Pacific | W | 75 - 63 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Western Wash. | W | 79 - 78 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Azusa Pacific | W | 73 - 61 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 49 - 68 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | CSUSB | W | 68 - 60 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Pepperdine | L | 72 - 80 |
| 2025-12-15 | vs | Central Wash. | L | 59 - 74 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | San Fran. St. | W | 80 - 57 |
| 2025-12-21 | vs | Cal St. East Bay | W | 93 - 63 |
| 2026-01-02 | @ | Chico St. | L | 57 - 60 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | UC Merced | W | 96 - 75 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Cal St. San Marcos | W | 83 - 73 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | W | 82 - 64 |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Cal St. Dom. Hills | W | 87 - 83 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Cal St. Dom. Hills | W | 78 - 65 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Cal Poly Humboldt | W | 74 - 47 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Chico St. | W | 76 - 66 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Cal St. East Bay | W | 101 - 57 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | San Fran. St. | W | 84 - 66 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevaeh Asiasi | - | 19 | 37.1 | 17.7 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 15.2 | 15.3 | 232 | 11.6 | 26.8 | 43.9 | 40.0 | 70.7 | 2.65 | 51.1 | 47.1 |
| Sofia Fidelus | - | 19 | 36.5 | 14.4 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 13.4 | 10.5 | 204 | 10.2 | 23.2 | 39.0 | 35.6 | 70.5 | 2.46 | 48.6 | 45.3 |
| Amaya Fuentes | - | 19 | 25.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 121 | 6.0 | 21.4 | 49.7 | 32.3 | 73.7 | 0.79 | 57.8 | 56.5 |
| Ariyah Smith | - | 17 | 31.7 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 132 | 7.3 | 16.7 | 37.7 | 28.0 | 69.6 | 1.18 | 46.9 | 42.5 |
| Mariah Blake | - | 19 | 17.9 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 129 | 6.5 | 35.6 | 41.1 | 19.2 | 73.5 | 1.45 | 46.6 | 42.8 |
| Ronyae Jackson | - | 19 | 19.4 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 121 | 6.0 | 25.3 | 37.9 | 19.2 | 74.4 | 3.51 | 45.8 | 39.9 |
| Kyara Walter | - | 19 | 15.9 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 98 | 4.9 | 30.8 | 52.6 | 48.1 | 76.9 | -0.55 | 71.0 | 69.7 |
| Gabriella Rones | - | 10 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 69 | 5.8 | 32.8 | 35.8 | 31.8 | 100.0 | 1.07 | 50.1 | 49.1 |
| Mary Cotton | - | 15 | 11.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 56 | 3.5 | 28.4 | 34.9 | 7.7 | 66.7 | 1.31 | 39.4 | 36.0 |
| Mason Oberg | - | 1 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.58 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Jaden Newman | - | 10 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 8 | 0.9 | 40.1 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | 0.63 | 45.8 | 45.8 |
| Paige Worthem | - | 2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0 | 0.0 | - | 29.1 | 33.3 |
| Brianna Thomas | - | 6 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -8 | -1.6 | -177.8 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.46 | 29.1 | 33.3 |
| Jocelynn Townsend | - | 12 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | -0.1 | -6 | -0.5 | -23.6 | 18.2 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.07 | 16.8 | 18.2 |
| Nia Johnson | - | 1 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 32 | 4.0 | 22.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.23 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG