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Cal State Fullerton

Season: 2026-2027 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018
Also known as: Cal State Fullerton Titans
Program History
Coach: Sammy Doucette

2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)

66.5
PPG
66.2
Opp
+0.2
Margin
37.7%
FG%
31.1%
3P%
69.8%
FT%
35.3
RPG
13.3
APG
11.3
TO
69.7
Est. poss./game
56.8
Adj PPG
69.8
Adj Opp PPG
#294
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 901 (returning production + recruiting): last season 977, returning -18, transfers -58, freshmen +0 More → 882 (#237) Preseason prior 901 (returning production + recruiting): last season 977, returning -18, transfers -58, freshmen +0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +179 elo More → 914 (#243) HCA +179 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +178 elo More → 949 (#250) HCA +178 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.1 More → -14.7 (#314) HCA +3.1
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.1 More → -14.6 (#313) HCA +3.1
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.087 (#298) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -24.4 More → 0.215 (#307) AdjNet -24.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -23.8 More → 0.214 (#303) AdjNet -23.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 56.8 | AdjD 69.8 More → 0.295 (#294) AdjO 56.8 | AdjD 69.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 56.8 | AdjD 69.9 More → 0.313 (#300) AdjO 56.8 | AdjD 69.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.254 (#294) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.258 (#297) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 195 | GP 2 More → 881 (#257) RD 195 | GP 2
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Chronological component blend with rest and venue. More → 0.234 (#264) Chronological component blend with rest and venue.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-02 @ San Diego State Aztecs L 51 - 77
2026-11-04 vs Hope International Royals W 90 - 59
2026-11-07 vs Westcliff Warriors W 73 - 43
2026-11-12 @ UC Davis Aggies L 52 - 86
2026-11-15 vs Pacific Tigers - Preview
2026-11-19 vs Weber State Wildcats - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Dylan Swindle Dylan Swindle G 4 31.5 18.2 4.8 1.5 1.2 0.5 2.0 15.2 9.0 24 3 8.0 10.1 39.3 36.1 85.7 -0.12 54.3 50.0
Jana Falsdottir Jana Falsdottir G 4 30.5 10.5 5.0 1.2 2.0 0.0 0.8 10.2 7.8 24 3 8.0 11.1 41.5 36.8 100.0 -0.55 50.7 50.0
Juliana Aragon Juliana Aragon G 4 28.0 9.2 2.2 4.5 0.8 0.2 1.0 8.5 7.5 18 3 6.0 9.3 38.2 41.2 80.0 0.91 51.1 48.5
Maxine Sutisna Maxine Sutisna G 2 19.0 9.0 3.5 2.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 8.5 6.0 15 1 15.0 36.3 41.2 40.0 66.7 -0.3 49.1 47.1
Ashari Cassell Ashari Cassell G 4 25.0 6.0 2.2 1.2 1.2 0.0 2.0 7.2 1.5 16 3 5.3 7.3 20.7 0.0 80.0 0.27 33.7 20.7
Talia Maxwell Talia Maxwell F 4 17.8 6.0 5.0 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 4.5 8.0 19 3 6.3 13.3 44.4 0 53.3 0.07 48.8 44.4
Bernadette Carranza Bernadette Carranza G 4 16.0 3.8 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 3.0 3.8 17 3 5.7 11.8 41.7 33.3 50.0 0.29 54.5 54.2
Shadel Ffrench Shadel Ffrench F 4 10.8 3.5 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.2 3.2 7.0 12 3 4.0 14.4 53.8 0 0 -0.53 53.8 53.8
Mimi Moon Mimi Moon G 4 22.5 3.5 1.2 1.5 1.8 0.2 1.8 5.5 1.0 25 3 8.3 13.9 27.3 0.0 50.0 -0.53 29.5 27.3
Anasia Wilcox Anasia Wilcox C 3 9.3 1.7 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.3 2.0 7 2 3.5 17.8 50.0 0 50.0 0.01 51.2 50.0
Alyssa Dreessen Alyssa Dreessen F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Jennifer Hawkins Jennifer Hawkins F 2 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 -0.5 -2 1 -2.0 -39.0 0.0 0 0 -1.09 0.0 0.0
Alexis Price Alexis Price G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Nyemah King Nyemah King G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

252 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Maxwell21% Swindle19% Sutisna33% Swindle67% Cassell25% Swindle50% Swindle67% Swindle50% Falsdottir33% Falsdottir43%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Swindle23% Falsdottir18% Cassell43% Aragon67% Sutisna67% Cassell60% Falsdottir50% Swindle26% Swindle53% Swindle35%
Misses: who misses most here

Dylan SwindleJana FalsdottirJuliana AragonMaxine SutisnaTalia MaxwellAshari Cassell

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 24-46 52.2 48 Talia Maxwell 21% (10 pts) Jana Falsdottir 17% (8 pts) Dylan Swindle 23% (5 misses) Talia Maxwell 23% (5 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 26-77 33.8 52 Dylan Swindle 19% (10 pts) Jana Falsdottir 15% (8 pts) Jana Falsdottir 18% (9 misses) Mimi Moon 18% (9 misses)
Mid-range left 6-13 46.2 12 Maxine Sutisna 33% (4 pts) Ashari Cassell 17% (2 pts) Ashari Cassell 43% (3 misses) Dylan Swindle 29% (2 misses)
Mid-range center 3-6 50.0 6 Dylan Swindle 67% (4 pts) Bernadette Carranza 33% (2 pts) Juliana Aragon 67% (2 misses) Maxine Sutisna 33% (1 misses)
Mid-range right 4-7 57.1 8 Ashari Cassell 25% (2 pts) Dylan Swindle 25% (2 pts) Maxine Sutisna 67% (2 misses) Jennifer Hawkins 33% (1 misses)
Left corner 3 4-9 44.4 12 Dylan Swindle 50% (6 pts) Juliana Aragon 50% (6 pts) Ashari Cassell 60% (3 misses) Dylan Swindle 20% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 3-7 42.9 9 Dylan Swindle 67% (6 pts) Jana Falsdottir 33% (3 pts) Jana Falsdottir 50% (2 misses) Juliana Aragon 25% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 left 12-39 30.8 36 Dylan Swindle 50% (18 pts) Juliana Aragon 25% (9 pts) Dylan Swindle 26% (7 misses) Bernadette Carranza 22% (6 misses)
Above-break 3 center 6-21 28.6 18 Jana Falsdottir 33% (6 pts) Juliana Aragon 33% (6 pts) Dylan Swindle 53% (8 misses) Jana Falsdottir 13% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 right 7-27 25.9 21 Jana Falsdottir 43% (9 pts) Dylan Swindle 29% (6 pts) Dylan Swindle 35% (7 misses) Juliana Aragon 25% (5 misses)