Cal State Fullerton
2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)
Model Outputs
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 871 (#222) | Preseason prior 865 (returning production + recruiting): last season 994, returning -22, transfers -74, freshmen -34 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 949 (#208) | HCA +206 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 950 (#207) | HCA +205 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -6.8 (#246) | HCA +2.2 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -6.8 (#246) | HCA +2.2 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.297 (#229) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.375 (#232) | AdjNet -7.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.382 (#228) | AdjNet -7.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.411 (#226) | AdjO 75.4 | AdjD 78.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.412 (#226) | AdjO 75.3 | AdjD 78.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.386 (#218) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.386 (#218) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 935 (#212) | RD 196 | GP 2 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.359 (#247) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | @ | San Diego State Aztecs | L | 78 - 102 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ | South Dakota Coyotes | W | 87 - 85 |
| 2026-11-12 | vs | Lincoln (CA) Oaklanders | W | 101 - 71 |
| 2026-11-18 | @ | UCLA Bruins | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Ward
|
G | 3 | 32.7 | 20.7 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 15.7 | 17.3 | -20 | 2 | -10.0 | -12.2 | 46.8 | 40.0 | 77.8 | -1.08 | 56.4 | 51.1 |
Matthew Willenborg
|
G | 3 | 22.3 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 10.0 | 13.0 | -15 | 2 | -7.5 | -10.9 | 50.0 | 35.7 | 25.0 | -0.65 | 56.7 | 58.3 |
Malcolm Bell
|
G | 3 | 17.0 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | -29 | 2 | -14.5 | -35.8 | 58.3 | 42.9 | 66.7 | -1.01 | 65.2 | 64.6 |
Bailey Nunn
|
G | 3 | 22.7 | 10.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 5.7 | 7.7 | -10 | 2 | -5.0 | -9.1 | 47.1 | 41.7 | 75.0 | -0.24 | 67.3 | 61.8 |
Christian Williams
|
G | 3 | 25.0 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 8.7 | 6.0 | -23 | 2 | -11.5 | -18.5 | 34.6 | 29.4 | 100.0 | -0.6 | 46.5 | 44.2 |
Kendrick De Luna
|
F | 2 | 15.0 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 7 | 1 | 7.0 | 25.1 | 54.5 | 100.0 | 50.0 | -0.65 | 58.7 | 59.1 |
Marley Zeller
|
G | 3 | 17.7 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | -2 | 2 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 43.8 | 44.4 | 100.0 | -0.14 | 57.8 | 56.2 |
Anthony Ponga
|
G | 3 | 18.3 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 0.3 | 8 | 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 31.6 | 16.7 | 66.7 | -0.34 | 39.4 | 36.8 |
Rockwell Reynolds
|
F | 3 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 4.0 | -11 | 2 | -5.5 | -24.0 | 42.9 | 20.0 | 25.0 | -0.77 | 44.4 | 46.4 |
Tiernan Stynes
|
G | 3 | 20.3 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | -13 | 2 | -6.5 | -13.8 | 28.6 | 18.2 | 50.0 | -0.44 | 37.0 | 35.7 |
Troy Jenkins
|
G | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Henry Beckett
|
G | 2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -1 | 1 | -1.0 | -20.7 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.26 | 25.8 | 33.3 |
Matthew Quinlan
|
G | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Greg Howard Jr.
|
G | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1 | 1 | -1.0 | -20.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.26 | 0 | 0 |
Andrew McConnell
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Sean Chris Tresvant
|
G | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Davis White
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
Alumni in the Pros
Former Cal State Fullerton players in NBA 2026-2027, EuroLeague 2026-2027, G League 2026-2027, matched by provider player ids (ESPN athlete ids, ESPN bios, linked StatsNBA/EuroLeague ids). Only games after their last Cal State Fullerton game count. These are observed results, not certified complete seasons. League and team are where each player last played a regular-season or playoff game (NBA ahead of G League when he played in both); recent games include the preseason.
Active alumni
| Player | At School | League | Team | GP | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | Last game | Last 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleb Brown | 2024-25 | NBA | Indiana Pacers | 6 | 13.6 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 11-04 0 pts, 1 reb, 0 ast | 6 GP, 4.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.0 APG |
| Kyle Allman Jr. | 2015-19 | EuroLeague | Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | 8 | 16.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 10-28 0 pts, 0 reb, 0 ast | 2 GP, 1.0 PPG, 0.0 RPG, 1.0 APG |
Alumni around the leagues: recent games
| Date | Player | League | Team | Opponent | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | Box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | Kaleb Brown | G League Play-In | Noblesville Boom | vs Iowa Wolves | 34 | 28 | 7 | 6 | Box |
| 2026-11-04 | Kaleb Brown | NBA | Indiana Pacers | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Box |
| 2026-11-02 | Kaleb Brown | NBA | Indiana Pacers | vs Atlanta Hawks | 38 | 16 | 6 | 1 | Box |
| 2026-10-28 | Kyle Allman Jr. | EuroLeague | Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | @ LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Box |
| 2026-10-22 | Kyle Allman Jr. | EuroLeague | Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | vs Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Box |
| 2026-10-15 | Kyle Allman Jr. | EuroLeague | Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | @ Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | Box |
2026-2027 Shot Zones
223 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Josh WardMatthew WillenborgChristian WilliamsBailey NunnAnthony PongaKendrick De LunaTiernan Stynes
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 48-75 | 64.0 | 96 | Josh Ward 35% (34 pts) | Malcolm Bell 19% (18 pts) | Josh Ward 41% (11 misses) | Malcolm Bell 15% (4 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 12-32 | 37.5 | 24 | Matthew Willenborg 25% (6 pts) | Rockwell Reynolds 25% (6 pts) | Josh Ward 35% (7 misses) | Matthew Willenborg 15% (3 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 3-6 | 50.0 | 6 | Bailey Nunn 33% (2 pts) | Christian Williams 33% (2 pts) | Christian Williams 33% (1 misses) | Josh Ward 33% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 2-4 | 50.0 | 4 | Christian Williams 100% (4 pts) | - | Kendrick De Luna 50% (1 misses) | Matthew Willenborg 50% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 2-6 | 33.3 | 4 | Christian Williams 50% (2 pts) | Matthew Willenborg 50% (2 pts) | Christian Williams 25% (1 misses) | Henry Beckett 25% (1 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 3-11 | 27.3 | 9 | Anthony Ponga 33% (3 pts) | Bailey Nunn 33% (3 pts) | Tiernan Stynes 38% (3 misses) | Anthony Ponga 12% (1 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 7-13 | 53.8 | 21 | Anthony Ponga 14% (3 pts) | Bailey Nunn 14% (3 pts) | Tiernan Stynes 33% (2 misses) | Anthony Ponga 17% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 10-28 | 35.7 | 30 | Josh Ward 30% (9 pts) | Malcolm Bell 20% (6 pts) | Bailey Nunn 22% (4 misses) | Anthony Ponga 17% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 6-21 | 28.6 | 18 | Bailey Nunn 17% (3 pts) | Christian Williams 17% (3 pts) | Anthony Ponga 20% (3 misses) | Josh Ward 20% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 6-27 | 22.2 | 18 | Christian Williams 33% (6 pts) | Matthew Willenborg 33% (6 pts) | Christian Williams 29% (6 misses) | Marley Zeller 19% (4 misses) |