🐻⬇️🏀

Cal Poly

Season: 2026
Also known as: Cal Poly
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1132 (#102) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1037 (#227) HCA +62 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +41.2 (#43) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 1.000 (#41) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +56.8 More → 1.000 (#31) NetEff +56.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +74.0 More → 1.000 (#9) AdjNet +74.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +73.5 More → 1.000 (#9) AdjNet +73.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 75.0 | AdjD 34.6 More → 0.975 (#38) AdjO 75.0 | AdjD 34.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.0 | AdjD 48.8 More → 0.800 (#61) AdjO 64.0 | AdjD 48.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.979 (#9) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.968 (#9) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 2 More → 1171 (#90) RD 350 | GP 2

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 vs UC Santa Cruz W 87 - 27
2025-11-24 vs Chapman W 59 - 31

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Vanessa McManus - 2 25.5 19.0 8.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 13.0 15.0 - - - 53.8 28.6 88.9 - 63.4 57.7
Nora Perez - 2 27.1 11.0 8.0 2.0 3.5 0.5 1.5 8.5 15.0 -7 -0.5 -6.9 58.8 0.0 66.7 2.38 60.0 58.8
Charish Thompson - 2 20.4 9.0 4.5 1.5 1.0 0.0 2.5 7.5 6.0 110 5.5 41.0 40.0 0.0 75.0 2.25 48.6 40.0
Avery Knapp - 1 20.9 9.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 8.0 5.0 -1 -0.1 -19.4 50.0 0.0 50.0 -0.05 50.7 50.0
Ana Moleon Hidalgo - 2 31.6 8.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 9.5 3.5 - - - 36.8 66.7 0.0 - 40.2 42.1
Vivian Franklin - 1 12.5 7.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 12.0 - - - 60.0 33.3 0.0 - 59.5 70.0
Katie Peiffer - 1 14.8 7.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 11.0 2.0 - - - 27.3 14.3 0 - 31.8 31.8
Gillian Bears - 2 20.4 6.5 7.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 1.0 6.5 7.5 - - - 38.5 0 50.0 - 41.6 38.5
Alana Goosby - 1 28.4 6.0 5.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 3.0 8.0 8.0 - - - 37.5 0.0 0 - 37.5 37.5
Jordan Billing - 1 29.6 6.0 3.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 5.0 - - - 37.5 0.0 0.0 - 33.8 37.5
Madison Butcher - 2 17.9 2.0 3.5 0.0 1.5 0.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 - - - 40.0 0.0 0 - 40.0 40.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG