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Cal Poly

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: Cal Poly
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1070 (#143) -
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 900 (#530) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1164 (#57) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 814 (#579) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 931 (#634) HCA +56 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -10.9 (#541) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.897 (#240) -
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.006 (#786) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +13.8 More → 0.830 (#221) AdjNet +13.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -51.8 More → 0.002 (#793) AdjNet -51.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +13.6 More → 0.828 (#222) AdjNet +13.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -52.3 More → 0.002 (#793) AdjNet -52.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 84.3 | AdjD 73.1 More → 0.735 (#206) AdjO 84.3 | AdjD 73.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 61.4 | AdjD 100.6 More → 0.028 (#792) AdjO 61.4 | AdjD 100.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 75.9 | AdjD 78.7 More → 0.435 (#532) AdjO 75.9 | AdjD 78.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.365 (#525) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.356 (#542) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 130 | GP 24 More → 959 (#430) RD 130 | GP 24

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 vs VTSU-Johnson W 117 - 55
2025-11-05 vs Pacific Lutheran W 101 - 79
2025-11-08 vs UW-River Falls W 68 - 66
2025-11-09 @ Marian (WI) W 63 - 56
2025-11-11 @ McDaniel L 55 - 84
2025-11-14 @ Saint John's (MN) L 71 - 74
2025-11-15 @ Augsburg W 81 - 73
2025-11-20 @ Valley Forge L 76 - 86
2025-11-21 vs Cornell College W 88 - 74
2025-11-29 vs Redlands W 87 - 81
2025-11-29 vs Gustavus Adolphus L 67 - 77
2025-11-30 vs JWU (Providence) W 122 - 57
2025-12-03 @ Neb. Wesleyan L 67 - 91
2025-12-06 @ Buena Vista L 71 - 88
2025-12-13 vs Dubuque L 49 - 71
2025-12-20 vs Northwestern-St. Paul W 91 - 72
2025-12-29 @ Juniata L 40 - 119
2025-12-29 vs Occidental W 82 - 69
2025-12-30 @ Stevenson L 49 - 89
2025-12-30 @ Bridgewater St. W 100 - 68
2026-01-07 vs Loras L 60 - 90
2026-01-10 @ Luther L 70 - 80
2026-01-14 @ Simpson L 79 - 94
2026-01-17 vs Wartburg W 75 - 69

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Darin Smith, Jr. - 2 18.9 22.0 7.5 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.5 11.5 20.5 78 4.6 27.3 78.3 50.0 100.0 2.91 85.8 82.6
Hamad Mousa - 2 27.8 21.0 7.0 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 12.0 20.5 - - - 54.2 47.1 80.0 - 73.9 70.8
Peter Bandelj - 2 29.4 18.5 5.5 5.5 1.5 0.5 3.5 9.5 18.5 - - - 63.2 50.0 88.9 - 80.6 76.3
Cayden Ward - 2 24.1 18.5 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.0 10.0 14.0 - - - 65.0 33.3 80.0 - 75.8 72.5
Isaiah Reece - 1 18.3 17.0 5.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 12.0 14.0 76 4.5 40.7 66.7 0 100.0 0.05 68.3 66.7
Kyle Cason - 16 22.3 13.2 4.6 1.6 1.2 0.4 1.9 10.6 8.6 -24 -1.2 -6.4 45.9 26.5 82.4 0.56 54.8 49.7
William Lawder - 1 19.4 13.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 10.0 -3 -0.2 -1.2 83.3 0 75.0 0.61 83.8 83.3
Max Frazier - 2 15.9 12.0 9.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 6.0 17.5 - - - 91.7 0 50.0 - 87.2 91.7
Jay Rodgers - 2 17.6 11.0 2.0 6.0 0.5 0.0 1.5 9.5 8.5 - - - 52.6 40.0 0 - 57.9 57.9
Owen Schipper - 16 33.1 10.9 8.1 3.4 1.2 0.3 2.0 9.4 12.4 -3 -0.1 -0.6 41.7 31.0 75.9 0.05 53.1 50.3
Roddy Jones - 2 14.4 10.5 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.5 4.5 17 1.2 29.8 46.7 46.2 100.0 0.57 68.0 66.7
Gabe Spinelli - 2 16.9 10.5 3.5 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 7.0 11.5 - - - 64.3 66.7 100.0 - 72.7 71.4
Deven Dowdie - 1 17.0 10.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 10.0 15 0.8 9.6 33.3 100.0 66.7 0.45 57.9 50.0
Braylon Thomsen - 16 17.8 9.6 3.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.2 7.3 5.7 -50 -2.5 -17.3 45.3 44.3 60.7 -1.29 59.5 58.5
Grant Uecker - 16 25.6 9.6 3.8 3.2 0.6 0.1 2.5 9.1 5.7 10 0.7 7.0 37.9 38.7 71.4 0.32 49.9 47.9
Jason Brice - 1 18.7 9.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 -47 -2.8 -44.4 25.0 50.0 85.7 -2.52 63.6 37.5
Michael Broady - 1 14.9 9.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 4.0 -68 -5.2 -210.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 0.58 65.4 66.7
Luka Tarlac - 1 23.3 9.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 13.0 - - - 100.0 100.0 100.0 - 116.0 116.7
Dahsan King - 1 21.9 9.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 10.0 2.0 69 3.1 17.8 40.0 25.0 0 0.46 45.0 45.0
Sahih Smith - 3 26.3 8.7 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 3.3 10.0 -1.3 - - - 26.7 0.0 55.6 - 34.3 26.7
Anthony Gott - 15 18.9 8.4 5.3 1.0 0.3 1.4 1.3 6.1 8.9 -35 -1.8 -13.6 56.5 0 68.8 -1.13 59.4 56.5
Christian Metivia - 1 14.5 8.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 10.0 - - - 66.7 0.0 0 - 66.7 66.7
Nico Ashley - 2 14.0 8.0 1.5 2.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 4.0 9.0 8 1.1 18.6 87.5 66.7 0 2.15 100.0 100.0
Daniel Etiosa James - 2 11.8 8.0 5.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 4.0 9.5 66 3.7 22.4 87.5 100.0 0 0.21 100.0 100.0
Austin Goode - 2 19.4 7.5 4.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 1.5 5.5 7.0 - - - 54.5 25.0 100.0 - 63.1 59.1
Ashton Reynolds - 2 11.3 7.5 4.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 5.5 9.0 - - - 54.5 0.0 75.0 - 58.8 54.5
Melo Sanchez - 2 16.6 7.5 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 4.5 17 1.3 5.3 50.0 42.9 100.0 2.58 68.9 65.0
Alex Ruba - 16 19.4 7.0 3.9 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 5.7 6.7 -1 -0.1 -0.5 47.3 37.5 77.8 1.7 56.6 53.8
Kaleem Moultrie - 2 14.1 7.0 5.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 6.0 6.5 - - - 58.3 0 0.0 - 46.4 58.3
Mike Gaines - 1 21.7 7.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 4.0 119 10.8 723.0 60.0 50.0 0.0 0.67 64.3 70.0
Dominik McKenney-George - 1 22.3 7.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 13.0 -56 -4.0 -36.8 66.7 0.0 75.0 1.37 73.5 66.7
Elijah Parker - 2 18.8 7.0 4.5 5.5 0.5 1.5 1.0 5.0 13.0 -63 -3.1 -45.0 60.0 40.0 0 -3.22 70.0 70.0
Carson Jones - 16 24.7 6.1 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 1.0 5.1 3.9 -7 -0.4 -1.7 40.2 27.3 76.0 -0.55 52.2 47.6
Jayden Mott - 2 13.2 6.0 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 3.0 7.0 - - - 83.3 50.0 50.0 - 87.2 91.7
Brad Curren - 16 22.2 5.6 1.8 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.9 4.9 4.0 -21 -1.1 -5.5 39.7 37.7 53.3 2.98 53.2 52.6
James Jones - 2 14.6 5.5 5.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.0 8.0 -45 -1.3 -11.6 62.5 50.0 0 -0.67 68.8 68.8
Kaeden Campbell - 3 28.2 5.3 5.0 1.0 0.3 0.3 1.7 8.3 2.0 - - - 16.0 10.0 87.5 - 28.1 18.0
Guzman Vasilic - 2 21.9 5.0 4.5 1.0 2.0 0.5 2.5 6.0 4.5 - - - 25.0 25.0 100.0 - 38.8 33.3
Ja'Kobe Williams - 1 20.3 5.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 9.0 32 2.3 47.9 25.0 33.3 100.0 -2.75 51.2 37.5
Garland Amaker - 1 17.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 - - - 100.0 0 50.0 - 86.8 100.0
Darius Wallace - 3 17.6 4.3 2.7 0.0 1.3 0.7 2.3 3.3 3.3 - - - 40.0 0 45.5 - 43.8 40.0
Khalil Dukes - 3 22.5 4.0 3.0 0.7 1.0 0.3 4.3 5.3 -0.7 - - - 31.2 20.0 25.0 - 33.8 34.4
Jake Davis - 2 21.4 4.0 1.0 3.5 1.0 0.5 2.0 6.0 2.0 59 3.3 26.8 16.7 14.3 75.0 0.38 29.1 20.8
Jason Scott - 1 9.9 4.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 33 2.4 23.5 0.0 0.0 100.0 4.0 34.7 0.0
Bersy Moundzieho - 1 30.3 4.0 5.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 7.0 5.0 - - - 28.6 0 0 - 28.6 28.6
Ali Assran - 2 16.0 3.5 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 4.0 6.0 - - - 37.5 25.0 0 - 43.8 43.8
Jahiere Walker - 3 15.6 3.0 2.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7 2.0 3.0 28 2.0 7.6 50.0 0.0 50.0 0.26 52.1 50.0
Troy Plumtree - 2 6.5 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.5 1.5 - - - 60.0 0.0 0.0 - 51.0 60.0
Aaron Price, Jr. - 2 9.9 3.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.0 50 2.4 43.4 75.0 0 0 -0.14 75.0 75.0
Jackson Mosley - 1 3.2 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 - - - 100.0 0 50.0 - 79.8 100.0
Amard Pagan - 3 17.8 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.0 -0.3 - - - 33.3 0.0 66.7 - 41.0 33.3
Anthony McClinton - 3 18.5 2.0 2.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.3 0.3 - - - 20.0 33.3 16.7 - 23.7 25.0
Camar Gregorio - 1 9.6 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 -9 -1.0 -74.7 50.0 0 0.0 0.39 34.7 50.0
Denzel Pierre - 1 16.7 2.0 4.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 5.0 -19 -1.1 -9.8 0.0 0.0 50.0 -1.86 17.4 0.0
Kieran Elliott - 1 7.6 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 -9 -1.1 -6.0 25.0 0.0 0 0.9 25.0 25.0
Eric Brown - 1 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 45 2.1 11.1 50.0 0 0 3.95 50.0 50.0
Kip Tupa - 10 7.7 1.7 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 - - - 41.7 40.0 60.0 - 59.9 58.3
Adam Fox - 2 5.9 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.0 10 0.6 3.8 33.3 33.3 0 0.58 50.0 50.0
Boaz Clark - 12 7.0 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 10 0.8 12.1 35.3 18.2 75.0 1.0 45.3 41.2
Sage Suntken - 10 6.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.6 4 0.3 7.8 28.6 23.1 50.0 -0.2 41.2 39.3
Ross Kusel - 6 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.0 - - - 33.3 14.3 0 - 38.9 38.9
Evan Hatcher - 4 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.5 1.0 - - - 50.0 100.0 50.0 - 69.4 75.0
Riley Young - 2 16.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 4.0 -0.5 - - - 12.5 0.0 0 - 12.5 12.5
Jaden Cesar - 1 5.9 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 -1.0 -47 -3.4 -87.9 0.0 0.0 50.0 -1.99 17.4 0.0
Brandon Edwards - 1 7.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -12 -1.7 -56.6 0.0 0.0 50.0 -0.94 26.6 0.0
Alier Agau - 8 3.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.8 - - - 37.5 0 0 - 37.5 37.5
Fulton Flesher - 3 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Derek Thissen - 6 2.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 -0.5 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Patrick Weyrauch - 3 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.3 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Ace Branham - 1 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 -3.0 -68 -6.2 -189.8 0.0 0.0 0 -2.57 0.0 0.0
Charlie Giordano - 1 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 -24 -3.4 -144.0 0.0 0.0 0 -0.99 0.0 0.0
Aiden Littleton - 1 6.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 -1.0 -58 -5.8 -39.5 0.0 0 0 -1.11 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG