Cal Lutheran
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1000 (#383) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 987 (#399) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1002 (#440) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -4.3 (#185) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -3.2 (#397) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.770 (#307) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.727 (#265) | AdjNet +8.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.725 (#266) | AdjNet +8.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.634 (#264) | AdjO 76.3 | AdjD 70.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.488 (#436) | AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 72.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.459 (#435) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.469 (#432) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1043 (#298) | RD 97 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-12 | @ | Oberlin | W | 57 - 51 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Manchester | W | 107 - 93 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Marietta | L | 82 - 83 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Whitman | W | 71 - 59 |
| 2025-11-26 | vs | NYU | L | 63 - 78 |
| 2025-11-28 | vs | George Fox | W | 99 - 86 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Whittier | L | 65 - 70 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Caltech | W | 89 - 82 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Emerson | L | 62 - 66 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Hardin-Simmons | W | 60 - 56 |
| 2025-12-31 | vs | Amherst | L | 63 - 71 |
| 2026-01-05 | vs | Chapman | W | 70 - 69 |
| 2026-01-07 | @ | La Verne | W | 86 - 69 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Redlands | L | 62 - 97 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Claremont-M-S | L | 66 - 75 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Occidental | L | 65 - 79 |
| 2026-01-19 | @ | Chapman | L | 55 - 67 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Pomona-Pitzer | L | 59 - 62 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Whittier | W | 95 - 89 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Redlands | W | 82 - 70 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Claremont-M-S | L | 56 - 80 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Caltech | W | 96 - 79 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Williamson | - | 1 | 34.0 | 25.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 15.0 | -103 | -5.7 | -38.8 | 64.3 | 60.0 | 66.7 | 2.38 | 75.1 | 75.0 |
| Dorian Glogovac | - | 1 | 40.0 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | -132 | -6.9 | -40.4 | 46.2 | 44.4 | 77.8 | -0.05 | 67.8 | 61.5 |
| Ryan Rodrigue | - | 1 | 40.0 | 21.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | -159 | -8.8 | -46.6 | 46.2 | 20.0 | 88.9 | -2.17 | 61.9 | 50.0 |
| Will Householter | - | 1 | 29.0 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 14.0 | 10.0 | 56 | 3.7 | 33.5 | 50.0 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 2.18 | 53.9 | 53.6 |
| Brandon Andrews | - | 1 | 29.0 | 15.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 7 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 42.9 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 2.17 | 51.9 | 53.6 |
| Peyton Guerrero | - | 1 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 46 | 3.3 | 38.1 | 71.4 | 66.7 | 0 | -0.1 | 85.7 | 85.7 |
| Joey Kennedy | - | 1 | 25.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 19.0 | 37 | 2.3 | 24.2 | 62.5 | 0 | 100.0 | -0.6 | 67.6 | 62.5 |
| Jaden Young | - | 16 | 22.0 | 11.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | -25 | -1.5 | -7.2 | 43.6 | 39.2 | 87.5 | 3.14 | 55.5 | 53.5 |
| Matthew Verkamp | - | 19 | 25.4 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 9.4 | 6.9 | -61 | -3.0 | -16.4 | 41.6 | 33.3 | 82.7 | -2.03 | 52.8 | 47.5 |
| Ryder Mjoen | - | 19 | 18.3 | 9.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 43.1 | 38.0 | 90.5 | 0.13 | 58.8 | 55.8 |
| Jaden Mathis | - | 1 | 21.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | -11 | -0.8 | -3.4 | 50.0 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 0.69 | 65.4 | 66.7 |
| Tochi Onyeador | - | 1 | 33.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 20.0 | 18 | 1.3 | 4.9 | 100.0 | 0 | 20.0 | 2.78 | 72.6 | 100.0 |
| Aidan Crawford | - | 18 | 19.4 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 8.2 | 3.9 | -39 | -2.3 | -25.8 | 41.5 | 26.4 | 85.0 | 1.26 | 50.7 | 48.0 |
| Jonathan Duley | - | 1 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 33 | 2.4 | 9.3 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -1.68 | 41.5 | 28.6 |
| Brady Karich | - | 1 | 32.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 | 26 | 2.2 | 107.6 | 100.0 | 0 | 100.0 | -1.5 | 103.1 | 100.0 |
| Luke Jacobson | - | 1 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | -15 | -1.4 | -103.4 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.98 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Ze'ev Remer | - | 18 | 19.6 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 4.3 | 7.2 | -28 | -2.3 | -32.6 | 39.0 | 35.9 | 88.2 | -0.27 | 56.5 | 48.1 |
| Cody Shen | - | 15 | 16.2 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 13 | 0.8 | 4.9 | 39.2 | 30.8 | 77.3 | 2.14 | 49.6 | 44.6 |
| Josh DeVore | - | 19 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 37 | 1.9 | 17.7 | 41.4 | 31.9 | 59.1 | 3.89 | 51.7 | 50.0 |
| Ido Geffen | - | 1 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -75 | -3.9 | -67.7 | 66.7 | 100.0 | 0 | -3.46 | 83.3 | 83.3 |
| Tony Angelo | - | 13 | 15.6 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 8.5 | 14 | 1.3 | 29.9 | 52.6 | 50.0 | 84.6 | 0.47 | 68.6 | 64.5 |
| Makaio Morphy | - | 19 | 15.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | -23 | -1.3 | -14.6 | 34.1 | 25.9 | 62.5 | 0.6 | 46.0 | 42.9 |
| Andrew Pipersburgh | - | 14 | 14.3 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 8.9 | -31 | -2.1 | -13.3 | 57.7 | 0 | 71.1 | 2.3 | 66.7 | 57.7 |
| PJ Jourdain | - | 13 | 10.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | -20 | -1.3 | -107.1 | 41.0 | 33.3 | 66.7 | -1.3 | 50.4 | 48.7 |
| Finnegan Fancher | - | 1 | 35.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | -129 | -6.8 | -37.7 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 0 | -1.34 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Hunter Marumoto | - | 5 | 11.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 16 | 5.3 | 20.0 | 55.6 | 50.0 | 0 | -0.12 | 77.8 | 77.8 |
| Camden Hyde | - | 19 | 11.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 11 | 0.6 | 6.4 | 34.9 | 18.2 | 40.7 | -1.35 | 39.2 | 37.2 |
| James Frye | - | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 14 | 1.4 | 156.3 | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Samuel Gibbs | - | 1 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | -141 | -9.4 | -31.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.71 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Stuart Florescu | - | 1 | 25.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 | -83 | -4.4 | -34.6 | 16.7 | 0 | 0 | -0.39 | 16.7 | 16.7 |
| Cade Collins | - | 15 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | -38 | -2.4 | -74.6 | 45.8 | 22.2 | 75.0 | -2.76 | 52.4 | 50.0 |
| Brandon Roundtree | - | 5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 | 72.0 | 75.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.19 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Kai Gibbons | - | 3 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -0.3 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 17.4 | 0.0 |
| Liam Kelly | - | 3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 56.8 | 0 |
| Luke Varechok | - | 11 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -18 | -1.4 | -49.4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.31 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jayden Fakhouri | - | 5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.4 | -1.2 | 5 | 1.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.19 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| David Estes | - | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -17 | -1.5 | -44.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.85 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Andrew Koclanes | - | 1 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -133 | -7.4 | -98.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.48 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG