Cairn
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 884 (#425) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 647 (#594) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 747 (#713) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -48.6 (#422) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -41.9 (#702) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.199 (#583) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.038 (#530) | NetEff -19.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.001 (#723) | AdjNet -60.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.001 (#724) | AdjNet -63.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.035 (#718) | AdjO 45.5 | AdjD 82.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.070 (#710) | AdjO 45.3 | AdjD 73.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.023 (#709) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.025 (#710) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 565 (#572) | RD 114 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | Lehman | L | 52 - 79 |
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Purchase | L | 44 - 77 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Penn St.-Hazleton | L | 54 - 63 |
| 2025-11-17 | vs | Trinity Washington | W | 67 - 45 |
| 2025-11-20 | vs | Bryn Mawr | L | 56 - 65 |
| 2025-11-24 | @ | Penn St.-Berks | L | 54 - 66 |
| 2025-12-01 | @ | Cedar Crest | L | 20 - 72 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Keystone | L | 52 - 54 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Penn St. Brandywine | L | 55 - 61 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Wilson | L | 63 - 73 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Valley Forge | W | 77 - 41 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Penn St.-Abington | L | 53 - 82 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Penn St. Harrisburg | L | 40 - 73 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Notre Dame (MD) | L | 26 - 83 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Cedar Crest | L | 40 - 73 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Gallaudet | L | 48 - 67 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Penn College | L | 49 - 71 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kailee Sobrino | - | 16 | 38.9 | 13.9 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 0.1 | 6.9 | 19.9 | -1.4 | -321 | -16.9 | -48.5 | 25.2 | 19.8 | 75.6 | -5.01 | 33.2 | 30.2 |
| Emily Brittin | - | 17 | 33.4 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 5.3 | 10.5 | 9.3 | -251 | -12.6 | -47.1 | 31.5 | 17.2 | 67.0 | -4.16 | 41.6 | 32.9 |
| Dezaray Bright | - | 15 | 27.2 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 10.5 | 7.4 | -292 | -16.2 | -60.1 | 39.5 | 0.0 | 72.5 | -3.0 | 43.8 | 39.5 |
| Laryssa Robinson | - | 7 | 25.1 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 5.4 | -95 | -13.6 | -77.7 | 43.2 | 20.0 | 50.0 | -0.95 | 47.0 | 45.5 |
| Lexi Cramer | - | 17 | 25.5 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 9.1 | 0.5 | -307 | -15.3 | -59.5 | 23.4 | 18.8 | 38.9 | -5.76 | 28.4 | 27.6 |
| Audrey Elisondo | - | 8 | 11.7 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.1 | -11 | -1.1 | -51.8 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 71.4 | -0.78 | 41.7 | 32.0 |
| Lily Welsh | - | 16 | 26.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 0.2 | -181 | -10.6 | -40.9 | 22.4 | 24.2 | 47.4 | -1.02 | 31.2 | 28.4 |
| Meg Gleason | - | 2 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 0 | 0 | - | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Olivia Logan | - | 13 | 10.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -176 | -11.0 | -94.7 | 27.0 | 23.1 | 0.0 | 0.13 | 30.4 | 31.1 |
| Maddy Birth | - | 11 | 7.2 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | -58 | -4.1 | -50.3 | 34.8 | 0.0 | 42.9 | -1.82 | 36.4 | 34.8 |
| Tatiana Ipri | - | 15 | 22.9 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | -179 | -10.5 | -66.1 | 17.0 | 16.7 | 50.0 | -2.37 | 20.5 | 19.1 |
| Peyton Magie | - | 12 | 8.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.6 | -94 | -6.3 | -165.3 | 13.3 | 10.0 | 66.7 | 0.45 | 25.5 | 16.7 |
| Payton Cline | - | 1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG