Model Outputs
2018-2019
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1180 (#51) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1167 (#66) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1104 (#48) | HCA +68 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +14.9 (#44) | HCA +2.6 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +17.0 (#25) | HCA +2.5 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.704 (#73) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.863 (#52) | AdjNet +15.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.866 (#52) | AdjNet +16.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.738 (#55) | AdjO 80.1 | AdjD 68.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.681 (#39) | AdjO 78.1 | AdjD 69.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.790 (#40) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.781 (#37) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1188 (#46) | RD 109 | GP 33 |
2019 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-02 | @ | Embry-Riddle (FL) | L | 69 - 72 |
| 2018-11-03 | @ | Drury | W | 65 - 62 |
| 2018-11-04 | vs | West Tex. A&M | L | 57 - 65 |
| 2018-11-09 | @ | Cal State LA | - | Preview |
| 2018-11-10 | @ | Cal St. San Marcos | - | Preview |
| 2018-11-16 | @ | Sonoma St. | W | 84 - 68 |
| 2018-11-17 | vs | San Fran. St. | W | 75 - 55 |
| 2018-11-24 | vs | Antelope Valley | - | Preview |
| 2018-11-29 | @ | Dominican (CA) | - | Preview |
| 2018-12-01 | @ | Academy of Art | W | 82 - 79 |
| 2018-12-05 | vs | Azusa Pacific | - | Preview |
| 2018-12-08 | vs | Biola | - | Preview |
| 2018-12-15 | @ | Fresno Pacific | W | 71 - 62 |
| 2018-12-18 | vs | Seattle Pacific | - | Preview |
| 2018-12-29 | vs | Notre Dame de Namur | - | Preview |
| 2018-12-31 | vs | Holy Names | - | Preview |
| 2019-01-05 | @ | Azusa Pacific | - | Preview |
| 2019-01-15 | @ | Hawaii Hilo | W | 84 - 75 |
| 2019-01-17 | @ | Hawaii Pacific | W | 80 - 56 |
| 2019-01-19 | @ | Chaminade | L | 76 - 79 |
| 2019-01-24 | vs | Academy of Art | - | Preview |
| 2019-01-26 | vs | Dominican (CA) | - | Preview |
| 2019-02-02 | vs | Point Loma | - | Preview |
| 2019-02-07 | @ | Holy Names | - | Preview |
| 2019-02-09 | @ | Notre Dame de Namur | - | Preview |
| 2019-02-12 | @ | Biola | - | Preview |
| 2019-02-16 | vs | Hawaii Hilo | - | Preview |
| 2019-02-18 | vs | Hawaii Pacific | - | Preview |
| 2019-02-21 | vs | Fresno Pacific | - | Preview |
| 2019-02-23 | vs | Chaminade | - | Preview |
| 2019-03-02 | @ | Point Loma | L | 83 - 93 |
| 2019-03-08 | vs | Chaminade | - | Preview |
| 2019-03-09 | @ | Point Loma | - | Preview |
| 2019-03-15 | @ | Saint Martin's | L | 60 - 63 |
2019 Roster
No roster data available for this season.