CSUSB
Model Outputs
2018-2019
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 945 (#182) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 996 (#152) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 958 (#187) | HCA +53 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +7.0 (#117) | HCA +2.5 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +3.8 (#139) | HCA +2.4 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.362 (#185) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.594 (#156) | AdjNet +3.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.601 (#157) | AdjNet +3.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.546 (#154) | AdjO 62.1 | AdjD 60.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.482 (#156) | AdjO 61.9 | AdjD 62.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.525 (#156) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.512 (#156) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 950 (#177) | RD 149 | GP 23 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2018-2019 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-09 | vs | Azusa Pacific | L | 53 - 68 |
| 2018-11-10 | @ | Point Loma | W | 67 - 59 |
| 2018-11-16 | @ | Concordia Portland | L | 62 - 68 |
| 2018-11-17 | @ | Central Wash. | L | 48 - 80 |
| 2018-11-29 | vs | Cal State LA | W | 74 - 52 |
| 2018-12-01 | vs | Cal Poly Humboldt | L | 49 - 69 |
| 2018-12-10 | @ | San Diego | T | 0 - 0 |
| 2018-12-13 | @ | San Fran. St. | L | 57 - 69 |
| 2018-12-15 | @ | Sonoma St. | L | 62 - 71 |
| 2018-12-19 | @ | UC San Diego | L | 62 - 81 |
| 2018-12-30 | @ | Stanislaus St. | W | 57 - 52 |
| 2019-01-03 | vs | Chico St. | W | 63 - 55 |
| 2019-01-05 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 70 - 71 |
| 2019-01-10 | vs | Cal St. Monterey Bay | W | 58 - 41 |
| 2019-01-12 | vs | Cal St. East Bay | W | 64 - 59 |
| 2019-01-17 | @ | Cal State LA | W | 63 - 58 |
| 2019-01-19 | @ | Cal St. Dom. Hills | L | 60 - 64 |
| 2019-01-24 | vs | San Fran. St. | W | 68 - 59 |
| 2019-01-26 | vs | Sonoma St. | L | 71 - 79 |
| 2019-01-31 | @ | Cal St. East Bay | L | 40 - 56 |
| 2019-02-02 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | - | Preview |
| 2019-02-07 | vs | Cal St. San Marcos | L | 61 - 72 |
| 2019-02-09 | vs | UC San Diego | L | 49 - 71 |
| 2019-02-14 | @ | Chico St. | W | 87 - 76 |
| 2019-02-16 | @ | Cal Poly Humboldt | L | 66 - 69 |
| 2019-02-23 | vs | Stanislaus St. | L | 52 - 65 |
| 2019-03-02 | @ | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 58 - 62 |
2018-2019 Roster
No roster data available for this season.