CSUSB
Model Outputs
2016-2017
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1007 (#143) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1046 (#126) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1005 (#139) | HCA +52 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +2.8 (#142) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -2.5 (#187) | HCA +2.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.508 (#139) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.548 (#149) | AdjNet +1.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.553 (#147) | AdjNet +1.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.509 (#157) | AdjO 61.2 | AdjD 60.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.474 (#163) | AdjO 60.6 | AdjD 61.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.508 (#155) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.501 (#156) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 991 (#153) | RD 135 | GP 24 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2016-2017 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-11 | @ | Weber St. | L | 69 - 75 |
| 2016-11-15 | vs | CUI | W | 69 - 59 |
| 2016-11-17 | @ | California Baptist | L | 73 - 91 |
| 2016-11-25 | @ | Central Wash. | W | 66 - 52 |
| 2016-11-26 | vs | Northwest Nazarene | W | 73 - 69 |
| 2016-11-30 | @ | Cal St. San Marcos | W | 69 - 66 |
| 2016-12-03 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | W | 64 - 50 |
| 2016-12-16 | @ | UC San Diego | L | 48 - 82 |
| 2016-12-17 | @ | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 49 - 58 |
| 2016-12-29 | vs | Stanislaus St. | L | 56 - 66 |
| 2017-01-06 | vs | Chico St. | W | 63 - 58 |
| 2017-01-13 | @ | Sonoma St. | W | 65 - 52 |
| 2017-01-14 | @ | San Fran. St. | W | 56 - 52 |
| 2017-01-18 | vs | San Fran. St. | W | 72 - 38 |
| 2017-01-21 | vs | Cal St. San Marcos | L | 61 - 65 |
| 2017-01-27 | @ | Chico St. | L | 54 - 63 |
| 2017-01-28 | @ | Stanislaus St. | W | 68 - 65 |
| 2017-02-03 | vs | Cal St. East Bay | W | 59 - 47 |
| 2017-02-04 | vs | Cal St. Monterey Bay | W | 52 - 49 |
| 2017-02-09 | @ | Cal State LA | L | 53 - 71 |
| 2017-02-11 | @ | Cal St. Dom. Hills | W | 67 - 59 |
| 2017-02-17 | vs | Cal Poly Humboldt | W | 60 - 54 |
| 2017-02-18 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 64 - 76 |
| 2017-02-23 | vs | UC San Diego | L | 60 - 66 |
| 2017-02-25 | vs | Cal St. Dom. Hills | W | 72 - 63 |
| 2017-02-28 | @ | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 49 - 54 |
2016-2017 Roster
No roster data available for this season.