CSUSB
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 979 (#311) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 942 (#362) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 941 (#568) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +6.0 (#155) | HCA +2.9 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -5.4 (#446) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.531 (#349) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.475 (#286) | NetEff -0.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.663 (#332) | AdjNet +5.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.668 (#336) | AdjNet +5.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.577 (#334) | AdjO 66.6 | AdjD 63.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.437 (#487) | AdjO 59.6 | AdjD 62.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.390 (#455) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.390 (#458) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 922 (#337) | RD 94 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | CUI | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Biola | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Fresno Pacific | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Dominican (CA) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Westmont | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Cal St. Dom. Hills | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Cal State LA | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-19 | @ | Stanislaus St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-21 | @ | UC Merced | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-02 | @ | Cal St. East Bay | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Cal St. Monterey Bay | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Cal Poly Pomona | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Chico St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Cal Poly Humboldt | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | San Fran. St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Cal St. East Bay | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Cal St. San Marcos | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Princess Cassell | - | 19 | 23.8 | 11.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 12.3 | 3.8 | -14 | -0.7 | -2.7 | 31.2 | 31.2 | 73.0 | -0.51 | 43.4 | 38.7 |
| Rebecca Saidoff | - | 19 | 21.5 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 76 | 3.6 | 21.0 | 36.9 | 40.2 | 78.9 | 4.29 | 53.2 | 51.4 |
| Jaushlynn Ruffin | - | 19 | 24.6 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 43.5 | 33.3 | 58.2 | -0.98 | 48.4 | 44.6 |
| Citlali Salazar | - | 19 | 21.3 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.0 | -2 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 41.7 | 26.3 | 56.4 | -0.91 | 46.5 | 43.9 |
| Arianna Harper | - | 18 | 14.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.3 | 21.2 | 63.2 | 0.24 | 38.7 | 35.9 |
| Riy Smith | - | 19 | 21.2 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 5.6 | 1.7 | -39 | -1.9 | -8.8 | 28.3 | 7.1 | 63.6 | -2.46 | 32.4 | 28.8 |
| Kendal Alloway | - | 7 | 17.1 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 5.3 | -3 | -0.4 | -6.9 | 41.9 | 0 | 16.7 | 2.19 | 40.1 | 41.9 |
| Sincere Hardwick | - | 19 | 13.1 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 36 | 1.7 | 15.2 | 43.6 | 100.0 | 57.1 | 0.52 | 46.6 | 44.5 |
| Paisley Specht | - | 19 | 19.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 1.1 | -46 | -2.2 | -11.5 | 22.9 | 18.4 | 50.0 | -2.42 | 30.0 | 28.3 |
| Hunter Simon | - | 19 | 10.9 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | -7 | -0.3 | -3.2 | 40.4 | 0.0 | 40.0 | -0.59 | 40.7 | 40.4 |
| Aariah Roa | - | 16 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 11 | 0.6 | 10.2 | 31.4 | 33.3 | 80.0 | 1.42 | 49.7 | 47.1 |
| Nevaeh Lemons | - | 17 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | -27 | -1.5 | -22.1 | 33.3 | 25.0 | 84.6 | -2.54 | 47.6 | 38.3 |
| Alexis Tinnin | - | 17 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.3 | -2 | -0.1 | -1.4 | 50.0 | 0 | 72.7 | -0.41 | 55.5 | 50.0 |
| Ariana Hallstrom | - | 19 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 31 | 1.5 | 22.3 | 23.1 | 14.3 | 85.7 | 3.56 | 32.7 | 25.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG