CSUSB
Model Outputs
2018-2019
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 978 (#183) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1070 (#119) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 973 (#189) | HCA +68 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +11.7 (#87) | HCA +2.6 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +6.7 (#136) | HCA +2.5 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.571 (#136) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.827 (#81) | AdjNet +13.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.832 (#81) | AdjNet +13.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.685 (#97) | AdjO 79.0 | AdjD 70.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.531 (#146) | AdjO 75.2 | AdjD 73.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.654 (#130) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.623 (#134) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1019 (#157) | RD 137 | GP 28 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2018-2019 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-09 | vs | Concordia Portland | W | 82 - 75 |
| 2018-11-10 | vs | Central Wash. | W | 87 - 83 |
| 2018-11-20 | @ | UC San Diego | L | 63 - 97 |
| 2018-11-23 | @ | Point Loma | L | 68 - 83 |
| 2018-11-24 | @ | Seattle Pacific | W | 79 - 72 |
| 2018-11-29 | vs | Cal State LA | L | 66 - 72 |
| 2018-12-01 | vs | Cal Poly Humboldt | W | 83 - 73 |
| 2018-12-09 | vs | St. Katherine | W | 91 - 69 |
| 2018-12-13 | @ | San Fran. St. | L | 76 - 80 |
| 2018-12-15 | @ | Sonoma St. | W | 64 - 54 |
| 2018-12-19 | @ | Stanislaus St. | W | 70 - 42 |
| 2019-01-03 | vs | Chico St. | W | 88 - 72 |
| 2019-01-05 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | W | 70 - 67 |
| 2019-01-10 | vs | Cal St. Monterey Bay | W | 96 - 71 |
| 2019-01-12 | vs | Cal St. East Bay | L | 79 - 82 |
| 2019-01-17 | @ | Cal State LA | W | 71 - 40 |
| 2019-01-19 | @ | Cal St. Dom. Hills | L | 76 - 88 |
| 2019-01-24 | vs | San Fran. St. | L | 72 - 81 |
| 2019-01-26 | vs | Sonoma St. | W | 89 - 73 |
| 2019-01-31 | @ | Cal St. East Bay | W | 74 - 73 |
| 2019-02-02 | @ | Cal St. Monterey Bay | - | Preview |
| 2019-02-07 | vs | Cal St. San Marcos | W | 69 - 58 |
| 2019-02-09 | vs | UC San Diego | W | 77 - 75 |
| 2019-02-14 | @ | Chico St. | L | 62 - 73 |
| 2019-02-16 | @ | Cal Poly Humboldt | L | 49 - 53 |
| 2019-02-23 | vs | Stanislaus St. | L | 88 - 97 |
| 2019-03-02 | @ | Cal Poly Pomona | L | 64 - 68 |
| 2019-03-05 | @ | UC San Diego | L | 69 - 98 |
2018-2019 Roster
No roster data available for this season.