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Buffalo Bulls

Season: 2026-2027 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018
Also known as: Buffalo Bulls
Program History
Coach: Kristen Sharkey

2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)

70.3
PPG
75.7
Opp
-5.3
Margin
51.4%
FG%
27.8%
3P%
72.1%
FT%
39.3
RPG
16.0
APG
24.3
TO
75.6
Est. poss./game
64.8
Adj PPG
72.7
Adj Opp PPG
#295
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 804 (returning production + recruiting): last season 848, returning +22, transfers -66, freshmen +0 More → 812 (#279) Preseason prior 804 (returning production + recruiting): last season 848, returning +22, transfers -66, freshmen +0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +185 elo More → 863 (#284) HCA +185 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +185 elo More → 930 (#274) HCA +185 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → -12.7 (#283) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.7 More → -12.3 (#282) HCA +2.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.161 (#259) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -12.1 More → 0.260 (#287) AdjNet -12.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -11.8 More → 0.258 (#287) AdjNet -11.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 64.8 | AdjD 72.7 More → 0.288 (#295) AdjO 64.8 | AdjD 72.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.8 | AdjD 72.7 More → 0.324 (#295) AdjO 64.8 | AdjD 72.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.266 (#288) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.273 (#287) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 197 | GP 2 More → 865 (#268) RD 197 | GP 2
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Chronological component blend with rest and venue. More → 0.193 (#278) Chronological component blend with rest and venue.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-02 vs Georgia State Panthers W 82 - 81
2026-11-07 @ Youngstown State Penguins L 62 - 86
2026-11-12 vs Sacramento State Hornets W 67 - 60
2026-11-14 vs Mississippi State Bulldogs - Preview
2026-11-19 vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ava LaMonica Ava LaMonica G 3 30.7 17.3 2.7 2.0 0.7 0.0 5.3 10.7 6.7 -37 2 -18.5 -26.7 50.0 40.0 81.8 -2.73 62.4 53.1
Meg Lucas Meg Lucas F 3 36.3 13.7 11.0 2.7 1.3 0.3 3.0 8.3 17.7 -18 2 -9.0 -10.1 76.0 0 50.0 -0.87 74.2 76.0
Asia Wilson Asia Wilson G 3 33.0 12.3 4.0 5.0 1.0 0.3 4.3 11.3 7.0 - - - - 38.2 28.6 87.5 - 49.3 44.1
Ella Corry Ella Corry G 3 24.0 9.0 3.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 7.0 5.3 -7 2 -3.5 -5.4 47.6 28.6 62.5 -0.23 55.1 52.4
Diann Jackson Diann Jackson F 2 23.5 6.0 5.5 1.5 0.0 1.5 4.5 4.5 5.5 - - - - 44.4 0.0 66.7 - 51.5 44.4
Jadeah Marshall Jadeah Marshall C 3 11.3 5.3 2.0 0.0 0.7 1.7 1.7 3.0 5.0 6 2 3.0 7.8 77.8 0 66.7 1.23 77.5 77.8
Ella Wickstrom Ella Wickstrom G 3 20.3 3.7 2.0 2.3 0.3 0.3 1.7 2.3 4.7 3 2 1.5 3.7 28.6 0.0 70.0 0.32 48.2 28.6
Layla Hearne Layla Hearne G 2 12.0 3.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.0 -12 1 -12.0 -21.8 40.0 40.0 0 -1.2 60.0 60.0
Oyinkansola Soetan Oyinkansola Soetan F 2 4.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 -4 1 -4.0 -30.7 50.0 0 66.7 -0.57 60.2 50.0
Briana Young Briana Young G 3 16.7 1.7 3.0 1.7 1.3 0.0 2.3 1.3 4.0 -13 2 -6.5 -11.5 50.0 0 50.0 -0.84 51.2 50.0
Kyleigh Hall Kyleigh Hall F 1 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1 1 -1.0 -16.8 0 0 0 -0.75 0 0
Aniya Rowe Aniya Rowe G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Deana Thompson Deana Thompson G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Natavia Alber Natavia Alber F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Annabelle Day Annabelle Day G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

148 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Lucas33% LaMonica32% LaMonica40% Wilson67% Wilson33% Wilson100% Corry100%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
LaMonica37% Wilson35% Wilson50% Corry100% Wilson40% Hearne100% Wilson43% Corry50% Wilson44%
Misses: who misses most here

Meg LucasAva LaMonicaAsia WilsonElla CorryLayla Hearne

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 36-55 65.5 72 Meg Lucas 33% (24 pts) Ava LaMonica 14% (10 pts) Ava LaMonica 37% (7 misses) Meg Lucas 26% (5 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 22-39 56.4 44 Ava LaMonica 32% (14 pts) Meg Lucas 23% (10 pts) Asia Wilson 35% (6 misses) Ava LaMonica 24% (4 misses)
Mid-range left 5-9 55.6 10 Ava LaMonica 40% (4 pts) Asia Wilson 20% (2 pts) Asia Wilson 50% (2 misses) Ava LaMonica 25% (1 misses)
Mid-range center 0-1 0.0 0 - - Ella Corry 100% (1 misses) -
Mid-range right 3-8 37.5 6 Asia Wilson 67% (4 pts) Meg Lucas 33% (2 pts) Asia Wilson 40% (2 misses) Ava LaMonica 20% (1 misses)
Left corner 3 0-0 - 0 - - - -
Right corner 3 0-1 0.0 0 - - Layla Hearne 100% (1 misses) -
Above-break 3 left 6-20 30.0 18 Asia Wilson 33% (6 pts) Ava LaMonica 33% (6 pts) Asia Wilson 43% (6 misses) Ella Corry 21% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 center 2-4 50.0 6 Asia Wilson 100% (6 pts) - Ella Corry 50% (1 misses) Layla Hearne 50% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 right 2-11 18.2 6 Ella Corry 100% (6 pts) - Asia Wilson 44% (4 misses) Ella Wickstrom 22% (2 misses)