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Buffalo

Season: 2026-2027 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018
Also known as: Buffalo Bulls, Buffalo
Program History
Coach: George Halcovage III

2026-2027 Team Stats (2 games)

63.0
PPG
86.0
Opp
-23.0
Margin
36.3%
FG%
23.7%
3P%
69.8%
FT%
29.0
RPG
8.0
APG
13.5
TO
74.0
Est. poss./game
66.3
Adj PPG
71.9
Adj Opp PPG
#279
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 834 (returning production + recruiting): last season 918, returning -80, transfers +23, freshmen -27 More → 800 (#279) Preseason prior 834 (returning production + recruiting): last season 918, returning -80, transfers +23, freshmen -27
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +224 elo More → 906 (#265) HCA +224 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +223 elo More → 946 (#273) HCA +223 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +1.7 More → -10.6 (#303) HCA +1.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +1.7 More → -10.5 (#304) HCA +1.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.159 (#313) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -14.2 More → 0.305 (#307) AdjNet -14.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -14.1 More → 0.304 (#307) AdjNet -14.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.3 | AdjD 71.9 More → 0.368 (#279) AdjO 66.3 | AdjD 71.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 66.3 | AdjD 71.9 More → 0.393 (#282) AdjO 66.3 | AdjD 71.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.315 (#295) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.319 (#295) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 200 | GP 2 More → 880 (#276) RD 200 | GP 2
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Chronological component blend with rest and venue. More → 0.329 (#246) Chronological component blend with rest and venue.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-02 @ Marshall Thundering Herd L 65 - 92
2026-11-05 @ Pittsburgh Panthers L 61 - 80
2026-11-09 vs Penn State Schuylkill Nittany Lions - Preview
2026-11-15 vs Canisius Golden Griffins - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Antoine Lorick III Antoine Lorick III F 2 28.5 18.0 10.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 13.0 15.0 -18 2 -9.0 -12.6 42.3 20.0 70.6 -0.52 53.8 46.2
Drew Steffe Drew Steffe G 2 37.5 17.0 3.5 2.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 12.0 12.5 -38 2 -19.0 -20.1 54.2 33.3 62.5 -0.13 61.8 60.4
Dylan Ducommun Dylan Ducommun G 2 30.5 9.0 3.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 2.0 11.0 3.0 -30 2 -15.0 -19.8 27.3 22.2 50.0 -1.42 37.9 36.4
JJ Starling JJ Starling G 2 34.0 8.5 3.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 3.5 9.0 2.5 -47 2 -23.5 -27.7 33.3 28.6 50.0 -0.99 41.2 38.9
Matas Buteliauskas Matas Buteliauskas F 2 11.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 3.5 0.5 -15 2 -7.5 -26.8 28.6 33.3 0 -1.15 42.9 42.9
Jalen Pitre Jalen Pitre F 2 10.5 3.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 3.5 -4 2 -2.0 -7.5 100.0 0 100.0 0.27 108.7 100.0
Mikkel Tyne Mikkel Tyne G 2 21.0 2.5 0.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.5 -2.0 -55 2 -27.5 -52.6 9.1 14.3 100.0 -3.13 21.0 13.6
Boluwasefe John Boluwasefe John F 2 9.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 -6 2 -3.0 -13.0 0 0 100.0 -0.38 113.6 0
Kyle Jones Kyle Jones G 2 6.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 -11 2 -5.5 -33.4 100.0 0 0 -0.75 100.0 100.0
JJ Frakes JJ Frakes G 2 11.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.5 0.0 -6 2 -3.0 -11.0 0.0 0.0 0 -0.28 0.0 0.0
Tristan Kuska Tristan Kuska F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Harrison Reede Harrison Reede G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Evan Romano Evan Romano G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Daniel Shao Daniel Shao G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Jahrel Vigo Jahrel Vigo G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

Alumni in the Pros

Every program's alumni →

Former Buffalo players in NBA 2026-2027, matched by provider player ids (ESPN athlete ids, ESPN bios, linked StatsNBA/EuroLeague ids). Only games after their last Buffalo game count. These are observed results, not certified complete seasons. League and team are where each player last played a regular-season or playoff game (NBA ahead of G League when he played in both); recent games include the preseason.

Alumni around the leagues: recent games

Date Player League Team Opponent MIN PTS REB AST Box
2026-10-08 Curtis Jones NBA Preseason Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics 1 0 0 0 Box

2026-2027 Shot Zones

113 located field-goal attempts in 2 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Lorick50% Lorick35% Steffe100% Steffe67% Ducommun50% Tyne100% Steffe33% Lorick67% Steffe40%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Lorick40% Lorick33% Starling33% Steffe67% Starling100% Ducommun50% Tyne67% Lorick21% Ducommun29% Ducommun40%
Misses: who misses most here

Drew SteffeAntoine Lorick IIIDylan DucommunJJ StarlingMikkel Tyne

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 6-11 54.5 12 Antoine Lorick III 50% (6 pts) Drew Steffe 17% (2 pts) Antoine Lorick III 40% (2 misses) Drew Steffe 20% (1 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 17-32 53.1 34 Antoine Lorick III 35% (12 pts) Drew Steffe 35% (12 pts) Antoine Lorick III 33% (5 misses) JJ Starling 27% (4 misses)
Mid-range left 1-4 25.0 2 Drew Steffe 100% (2 pts) - JJ Starling 33% (1 misses) Matas Buteliauskas 33% (1 misses)
Mid-range center 0-3 0.0 0 - - Drew Steffe 67% (2 misses) Dylan Ducommun 33% (1 misses)
Mid-range right 3-4 75.0 6 Drew Steffe 67% (4 pts) JJ Starling 33% (2 pts) JJ Starling 100% (1 misses) -
Left corner 3 2-8 25.0 6 Dylan Ducommun 50% (3 pts) JJ Starling 50% (3 pts) Dylan Ducommun 50% (3 misses) Antoine Lorick III 17% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 1-4 25.0 3 Mikkel Tyne 100% (3 pts) - Mikkel Tyne 67% (2 misses) Dylan Ducommun 33% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 left 3-17 17.6 9 Drew Steffe 33% (3 pts) Dylan Ducommun 33% (3 pts) Antoine Lorick III 21% (3 misses) JJ Starling 21% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 center 3-10 30.0 9 Antoine Lorick III 67% (6 pts) Dylan Ducommun 33% (3 pts) Dylan Ducommun 29% (2 misses) Mikkel Tyne 29% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 right 5-20 25.0 15 Drew Steffe 40% (6 pts) Matas Buteliauskas 40% (6 pts) Dylan Ducommun 40% (6 misses) Antoine Lorick III 20% (3 misses)