Bowling Green Falcons
2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)
Model Outputs
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 953 (#195) | Preseason prior 887 (returning production + recruiting): last season 992, returning -47, transfers -58, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 959 (#201) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 960 (#201) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -8.0 (#241) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -8.0 (#241) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.641 (#123) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.465 (#171) | AdjNet +3.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.457 (#175) | AdjNet +2.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.439 (#191) | AdjO 67.2 | AdjD 67.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.439 (#191) | AdjO 67.2 | AdjD 67.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.438 (#182) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.438 (#182) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 997 (#157) | RD 185 | GP 3 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.422 (#186) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | vs | Georgia Southern Eagles | W | 82 - 59 |
| 2026-11-05 | vs | Cleveland State Vikings | W | 77 - 73 |
| 2026-11-10 | vs | Bellarmine Knights | W | 91 - 66 |
| 2026-11-16 | vs | Lawrence Tech LAWRENCE TECH | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-19 | @ | Penn State Lady Lions | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions and box-score rates; an unlisted position is inferred from those rates, and missing rates are treated as zero. Legend numbers are each player's share of recorded roster minutes, scaled to five players' regulation minutes; they can differ from minutes per game in the roster below, especially when players miss games or coverage is incomplete. Each position column totals one regulation game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lauren Gerken
|
F | 3 | 30.3 | 21.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 15.7 | 14.7 | 42 | 3 | 14.0 | 18.1 | 57.4 | 36.8 | 60.0 | 1.38 | 65.0 | 64.9 |
Carol Silva
|
F | 3 | 29.3 | 19.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 13.3 | 20.3 | 38 | 3 | 12.7 | 17.4 | 55.0 | 56.2 | 45.5 | 0.51 | 64.7 | 66.2 |
Sara Caetano
|
G | 3 | 22.3 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 13.3 | 39 | 3 | 13.0 | 23.4 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 0.96 | 66.3 | 65.0 |
Jaedyn Cook
|
F | 1 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | -6 | 1 | -6.0 | -32.6 | 60.0 | 0 | 75.0 | -2.6 | 66.6 | 60.0 |
Mafalda Monteiro
|
G | 3 | 22.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 50 | 3 | 16.7 | 30.1 | 34.8 | 33.3 | 88.9 | 2.24 | 50.1 | 41.3 |
Joniyah Bland-Fitzpatrick
|
F | 3 | 22.7 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 20 | 3 | 6.7 | 11.6 | 38.1 | 16.7 | 42.9 | -3.68 | 41.5 | 40.5 |
Aurelie Vanderstraeten
|
F | 3 | 17.0 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 30 | 3 | 10.0 | 23.9 | 31.2 | 28.6 | 50.0 | 1.3 | 38.5 | 37.5 |
Kayla Stidham
|
G | 3 | 19.3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 27 | 3 | 9.0 | 18.9 | 15.4 | 12.5 | 87.5 | 0.91 | 36.3 | 19.2 |
Sol Depetris
|
G | 3 | 16.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 20 | 3 | 6.7 | 15.9 | 28.6 | 40.0 | 25.0 | -0.49 | 40.0 | 42.9 |
Sophie Alexander
|
G | 3 | 14.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 4 | 3 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.22 | 38.1 | 42.9 |
Eugenia Ngungo
|
C | 2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -4 | 2 | -2.0 | -15.5 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.75 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Ky'Aira Miller
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Mar Segura
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
201 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Lauren GerkenCarol SilvaMafalda MonteiroJoniyah Bland-FitzpatrickAurelie VanderstraetenJaedyn CookKayla Stidham
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 40-59 | 67.8 | 80 | Lauren Gerken 28% (22 pts) | Carol Silva 18% (14 pts) | Mafalda Monteiro 21% (4 misses) | Carol Silva 16% (3 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 24-55 | 43.6 | 48 | Lauren Gerken 29% (14 pts) | Carol Silva 25% (12 pts) | Carol Silva 23% (7 misses) | Joniyah Bland-Fitzpatrick 16% (5 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 2-2 | 100.0 | 4 | Jaedyn Cook 50% (2 pts) | Mafalda Monteiro 50% (2 pts) | - | - |
| Mid-range center | 0-0 | - | 0 | - | - | - | - |
| Mid-range right | 4-9 | 44.4 | 8 | Lauren Gerken 50% (4 pts) | Mafalda Monteiro 25% (2 pts) | Lauren Gerken 60% (3 misses) | Carol Silva 20% (1 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 2-10 | 20.0 | 6 | Carol Silva 50% (3 pts) | Mafalda Monteiro 50% (3 pts) | Kayla Stidham 25% (2 misses) | Sophie Alexander 25% (2 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 5-9 | 55.6 | 15 | Lauren Gerken 40% (6 pts) | Carol Silva 20% (3 pts) | Aurelie Vanderstraeten 25% (1 misses) | Lauren Gerken 25% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 6-19 | 31.6 | 18 | Carol Silva 67% (12 pts) | Lauren Gerken 33% (6 pts) | Joniyah Bland-Fitzpatrick 23% (3 misses) | Lauren Gerken 23% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 2-8 | 25.0 | 6 | Lauren Gerken 100% (6 pts) | - | Lauren Gerken 50% (3 misses) | Carol Silva 17% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 10-30 | 33.3 | 30 | Carol Silva 30% (9 pts) | Aurelie Vanderstraeten 20% (6 pts) | Lauren Gerken 25% (5 misses) | Carol Silva 20% (4 misses) |