🐻⬇️🏀

Bluffton

Also known as: Bluffton
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 968 (#304) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 976 (#363) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 952 (#559) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +5.6 (#131) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -3.4 (#417) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.464 (#468) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +6.2 More → 0.708 (#274) NetEff +6.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -3.8 More → 0.392 (#416) AdjNet -3.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -4.2 More → 0.380 (#414) AdjNet -4.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 59.2 | AdjD 62.0 More → 0.435 (#416) AdjO 59.2 | AdjD 62.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 56.1 | AdjD 58.3 More → 0.451 (#480) AdjO 56.1 | AdjD 58.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.432 (#429) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.430 (#434) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 22 More → 923 (#396) RD 97 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Olivet W 77 - 75
2025-11-12 @ Kalamazoo W 66 - 35
2025-11-14 vs Kenyon W 91 - 61
2025-11-18 @ Adrian L 66 - 70
2025-11-25 @ Heidelberg W 81 - 52
2025-12-03 @ Mt. St. Joseph L 48 - 53
2025-12-13 vs Transylvania L 45 - 56
2025-12-17 @ Berea L 57 - 67
2025-12-20 vs Wooster L 66 - 68
2025-12-30 vs Penn St.-Behrend L 51 - 60
2026-01-10 vs Franklin L 54 - 61
2026-01-14 @ Earlham W 57 - 47
2026-01-17 vs Berea W 59 - 51
2026-01-21 vs Mt. St. Joseph L 46 - 53
2026-01-24 vs Hanover W 57 - 51
2026-01-28 @ Manchester L 38 - 65
2026-01-31 @ Franklin L 50 - 61
2026-02-04 vs Earlham W 86 - 63
2026-02-07 @ Transylvania L 53 - 80

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Madison Brown - 16 32.1 15.4 8.8 2.2 1.4 0.0 2.8 14.8 10.2 -58 -2.1 -26.6 36.3 20.0 77.5 -3.54 44.5 37.3
Karlie Niekamp - 19 24.4 10.2 5.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.7 10.1 5.5 15 0.7 4.8 42.4 36.4 56.2 2.01 45.5 43.5
Rachel Clark - 17 33.1 10.0 3.7 2.8 1.4 0.3 2.3 7.8 8.1 -28 -1.4 -8.9 46.6 34.1 75.6 -0.62 56.3 52.3
Lacie Fenstermaker - 19 26.3 7.0 8.1 1.5 1.0 0.3 1.8 7.6 8.4 -86 -3.9 -21.5 35.9 14.3 72.2 -0.41 41.3 36.9
Alexis Stevely - 19 19.7 6.2 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 1.1 6.6 1.8 -23 -1.0 -12.2 34.4 29.9 45.5 -2.68 45.1 44.8
Macee Heckathorn - 19 16.5 5.7 4.3 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.8 7.1 3.9 -31 -1.4 -15.4 32.1 16.7 70.8 -1.12 37.4 34.0
Mackenzea Townsend - 14 14.0 5.5 3.9 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.2 4.5 5.4 -57 -3.6 -33.4 49.2 0 78.9 -3.85 54.0 49.2
Jessica Moore - 19 23.1 2.5 2.8 2.2 0.9 0.1 1.7 2.8 3.9 -33 -1.5 -11.1 26.4 29.7 80.0 -0.28 40.9 36.8
Erin Schaufelberger - 11 6.0 1.5 2.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.4 -13 -1.1 -22.7 30.4 0 33.3 -1.0 31.2 30.4
Hayley Burke - 13 9.8 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 -13 -1.0 -9.4 18.8 22.2 70.0 -0.11 36.8 25.0
Kacey Like - 10 9.2 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.9 1.0 1.3 -19 -2.1 -12.7 30.0 0.0 100.0 -1.22 42.5 30.0
Lillian Wakefield - 6 5.3 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 - - - 33.3 0 50.0 - 42.0 33.3
Katie Sims - 13 5.3 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.3 -0.4 -29 -2.2 -40.3 17.6 15.4 0 0.22 23.5 23.5
Sharon Keefer - 8 5.9 0.5 1.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.1 -0.8 -7 -1.0 -12.3 5.9 0.0 50.0 0.41 10.7 5.9

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG