🐻⬇️🏀

Berea

Also known as: Berea
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1068 (#108) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1038 (#267) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1002 (#424) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +4.6 (#142) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -0.3 (#375) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.742 (#339) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +0.8 More → 0.527 (#352) NetEff +0.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +3.8 More → 0.608 (#343) AdjNet +3.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +3.4 More → 0.598 (#344) AdjNet +3.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 64.1 | AdjD 62.3 More → 0.541 (#341) AdjO 64.1 | AdjD 62.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 63.4 | AdjD 63.0 More → 0.509 (#371) AdjO 63.4 | AdjD 63.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.491 (#389) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.495 (#387) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 93 | GP 22 More → 998 (#312) RD 93 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Hardin-Simmons L 52 - 73
2025-11-15 @ East Tex. Baptist L 50 - 63
2025-11-18 vs Asbury W 78 - 68
2025-11-22 vs Spalding W 73 - 67
2025-11-30 vs Wilmington (OH) L 62 - 65
2025-12-03 @ Hanover L 52 - 62
2025-12-13 @ Franklin L 66 - 81
2025-12-17 vs Bluffton W 67 - 57
2025-12-29 @ Oglethorpe L 67 - 73
2025-12-30 @ Sewanee W 88 - 68
2026-01-10 vs Manchester W 83 - 62
2026-01-14 @ Mt. St. Joseph W 52 - 49
2026-01-17 @ Bluffton L 51 - 59
2026-01-21 vs Hanover W 73 - 68
2026-01-23 vs Rose-Hulman W 68 - 51
2026-01-28 vs Transylvania L 58 - 66
2026-01-31 @ Manchester L 61 - 66
2026-02-04 @ Transylvania L 46 - 73
2026-02-07 vs Franklin L 65 - 76

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Lynkaylah James - 19 31.5 18.5 12.3 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.9 12.8 19.2 12 0.5 3.2 57.2 0.0 66.1 2.43 60.2 57.2
Madison Howell - 19 25.8 8.9 5.1 0.8 1.6 0.6 0.9 7.7 8.3 -39 -1.8 -12.7 35.4 32.7 83.3 1.84 51.9 47.3
Atyia Moss - 19 26.1 8.6 3.1 2.7 0.9 0.7 2.4 9.3 4.4 -3 -0.1 -1.0 32.4 26.2 90.6 0.81 43.1 38.4
Payton Bugg - 19 32.9 6.7 3.4 2.7 1.6 0.3 3.1 7.3 4.3 49 2.2 13.9 30.4 19.7 64.6 1.52 40.2 35.1
Joyce Mukalamusi - 18 20.2 6.6 3.9 0.6 1.0 0.2 2.8 6.5 3.0 -29 -1.4 -12.8 34.2 18.2 64.2 -0.17 42.0 35.9
Ariyana Sutton - 19 21.3 5.9 2.6 2.1 1.3 0.2 3.0 6.9 2.2 -43 -2.0 -18.1 32.1 20.4 81.8 -1.68 39.8 35.9
Nevaeh Bates - 19 21.2 3.8 2.2 0.6 1.0 0.1 1.9 4.8 1.1 -7 -0.3 -3.2 22.0 0.0 63.5 -2.75 32.1 22.0
London Sweeney - 19 14.8 3.7 2.0 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.8 3.3 3.9 1 0.0 0.7 34.9 15.4 78.1 0.02 46.1 36.5
Mylee Garrett - 6 4.6 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.8 18 3.0 445.4 42.9 33.3 100.0 -0.4 57.1 50.0
Kayla McClendon - 15 8.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 3.4 -1.7 -29 -1.7 -27.6 11.8 3.3 50.0 -1.73 14.9 12.7
Jada Henderson - 3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Nevaeh Carsby - 1 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG