Bellarmine
Model Outputs
2019-2020
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1073 (#104) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1085 (#107) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1038 (#110) | HCA +67 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +10.4 (#86) | HCA +2.9 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +10.4 (#79) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.706 (#88) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.847 (#78) | AdjNet +14.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.852 (#77) | AdjNet +15.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.680 (#88) | AdjO 69.8 | AdjD 61.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.610 (#93) | AdjO 68.0 | AdjD 63.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.715 (#88) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.702 (#91) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1081 (#106) | RD 97 | GP 25 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2019-2020 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-11-08 | vs | Ohio Dominican | W | 82 - 71 |
| 2019-11-09 | vs | Cedarville | L | 64 - 77 |
| 2019-11-16 | @ | Central St. (OH) | L | 60 - 68 |
| 2019-11-29 | vs | Trevecca Nazarene | W | 70 - 60 |
| 2019-11-30 | vs | Tampa | W | 76 - 63 |
| 2019-12-03 | @ | UIndy | L | 49 - 52 |
| 2019-12-07 | vs | Kentucky St. | W | 73 - 57 |
| 2019-12-18 | vs | Embry-Riddle (FL) | W | 80 - 60 |
| 2020-01-02 | vs | Ill. Springfield | W | 58 - 42 |
| 2020-01-04 | vs | Lewis | L | 76 - 78 |
| 2020-01-09 | @ | McKendree | W | 89 - 86 |
| 2020-01-16 | vs | Mo.-St. Louis | W | 70 - 52 |
| 2020-01-20 | vs | UIndy | L | 53 - 55 |
| 2020-01-23 | vs | Southwest Baptist | W | 86 - 60 |
| 2020-01-25 | vs | Drury | L | 74 - 82 |
| 2020-01-30 | @ | Ill. Springfield | W | 77 - 67 |
| 2020-02-01 | @ | Lewis | L | 71 - 77 |
| 2020-02-06 | @ | William Jewell | L | 47 - 63 |
| 2020-02-08 | @ | Rockhurst | W | 77 - 66 |
| 2020-02-13 | vs | Truman St. | W | 72 - 62 |
| 2020-02-15 | vs | Quincy | W | 64 - 57 |
| 2020-02-20 | @ | Missouri S&T | W | 80 - 58 |
| 2020-02-22 | @ | Maryville (MO) | L | 70 - 93 |
| 2020-02-29 | vs | McKendree | W | 88 - 59 |
| 2020-03-07 | @ | Lewis | L | 65 - 76 |
2019-2020 Roster
No roster data available for this season.