🐻⬇️🏀

Bard

Also known as: Bard
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 757 (#632) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 674 (#643) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 733 (#776) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -28.6 (#410) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -31.3 (#762) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.276 (#615) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -17.0 More → 0.123 (#612) AdjNet -17.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -17.5 More → 0.115 (#619) AdjNet -17.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.7 | AdjD 78.9 More → 0.248 (#592) AdjO 66.7 | AdjD 78.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 60.8 | AdjD 84.3 More → 0.105 (#775) AdjO 60.8 | AdjD 84.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.051 (#774) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.054 (#774) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 121 | GP 21 More → 573 (#648) RD 121 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ Washington Col. L 43 - 68
2025-11-09 @ Sarah Lawrence L 56 - 65
2025-11-14 vs Merchant Marine W 75 - 63
2025-11-15 vs Purchase L 57 - 75
2025-11-21 @ Mt. St. Mary (NY) L 55 - 62
2025-11-22 @ SUNY New Paltz L 73 - 76
2025-12-05 vs Hobart L 68 - 77
2025-12-06 vs RIT L 66 - 83
2025-12-13 vs Rensselaer L 47 - 76
2025-12-31 @ Hartwick L 83 - 86
2026-01-03 @ Rensselaer L 38 - 91
2026-01-09 vs St. Lawrence L 80 - 81
2026-01-10 vs Clarkson L 56 - 82
2026-01-16 @ Union (NY) L 60 - 89
2026-01-17 @ Ithaca L 62 - 116
2026-01-23 @ Skidmore L 33 - 82
2026-01-24 @ Vassar L 50 - 93
2026-01-30 @ Clarkson L 67 - 98
2026-01-31 @ St. Lawrence L 30 - 82
2026-02-06 vs Vassar L 70 - 81
2026-02-07 vs Skidmore L 52 - 74

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Braeden Burns - 1 23.1 22.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 8.0 16.0 21 1.1 3.7 87.5 75.0 83.3 1.34 103.4 106.2
Grayson Wallace - 1 19.5 11.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 5.0 11 0.6 6.9 50.0 42.9 0 -0.8 68.8 68.8
Max Frei - 14 25.3 9.8 4.9 2.3 0.9 0.4 2.4 6.2 9.6 -49 -3.5 -18.5 47.1 44.4 78.3 4.87 60.4 51.7
Lucas Tovar - 20 29.0 9.4 3.8 3.6 1.5 0.2 4.7 10.8 3.1 -161 -7.7 -26.5 34.4 19.6 52.6 -0.44 39.4 37.0
Azikiwe Cuffy-Scott - 18 14.6 9.0 3.8 0.6 0.7 0.3 1.3 6.8 6.2 -141 -7.4 -47.5 52.8 27.3 63.4 -4.04 57.4 55.3
Tyson Maxam - 1 13.7 9.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 1 0.1 0.3 75.0 100.0 0 -0.78 112.5 112.5
Angelos Bratakos - 20 27.5 8.8 4.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 2.5 8.4 3.7 -193 -9.2 -34.5 36.3 36.1 76.0 -2.49 49.2 46.7
Lorenzo Rappa - 1 18.8 8.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 6.0 76 3.8 20.8 42.9 50.0 0 -0.08 57.1 57.1
Steve DeRegis - 1 18.9 7.0 1.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 75 3.8 15.2 60.0 33.3 0 2.54 70.0 70.0
Samuel Gibbs - 13 25.3 6.8 1.8 0.8 1.0 0.2 1.2 6.7 2.5 -141 -9.4 -31.0 33.3 26.8 91.7 -2.71 47.7 44.3
Aydin Kocak - 1 20.1 6.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 5.0 69 3.5 21.2 50.0 50.0 0 0.19 75.0 75.0
Jalen Umstead - 18 17.9 5.7 3.6 1.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 6.6 3.2 -127 -6.7 -43.0 34.7 24.1 66.7 -1.58 41.8 40.7
Seth Dyer - 20 24.6 4.9 3.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 1.3 5.0 3.8 -259 -12.3 -48.8 36.0 31.8 48.0 -1.93 44.1 43.0
Ben Rappa - 1 16.0 4.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 7.0 -41 -2.0 -19.3 50.0 50.0 50.0 -2.5 69.4 75.0
Klaudius Skehel - 20 17.0 3.4 1.9 1.4 0.1 0.1 1.4 3.0 2.5 -149 -7.1 -42.7 36.7 37.0 75.0 -4.76 52.7 50.8
Bryce Sampah - 16 9.2 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.3 2.1 -56 -3.3 -25.4 48.6 22.2 40.0 1.23 50.5 51.4
Dimitrios Zampoukas - 20 15.9 2.0 2.7 1.1 0.6 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.0 -53 -2.5 -19.6 31.4 19.0 80.0 1.53 37.6 35.3
Konstantinos Korfiatis - 10 4.3 1.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 -44 -3.7 -34.9 45.5 25.0 33.3 -2.48 47.7 50.0
Michael Sweeney - 11 5.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.3 -3 -0.2 -3.8 23.1 10.0 80.0 -2.59 36.2 26.9
Luke Ravitz - 16 6.4 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 -23 -1.4 -15.5 40.0 0.0 50.0 -0.4 41.8 40.0
Sebastian Matz - 15 5.5 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.1 -0.6 -8 -0.5 -8.1 17.6 21.4 0 0.66 26.5 26.5
Toure Napier-Rowell - 4 7.1 0.5 1.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 -9 -1.8 -25.2 25.0 0.0 0 -0.74 25.0 25.0
Matt Toscano - 1 16.5 0.0 5.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 8.0 12 0.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 0 3.54 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG