Ball State - 2026-2027

2026-2027 Team Stats (2 games)

77.5

PPG

76.0

Opp

+1.5

Margin

40.1%

FG%

24.0%

3P%

61.1%

FT%

46.0

RPG

13.5

APG

19.0

TO

81.9

Est. poss./game

63.3

Adj PPG

64.5

Adj Opp PPG

#76

Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 1219 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1126, returning +171, transfers -79, freshmen +0 More →	1240 (#58)	Preseason prior 1219 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1126, returning +171, transfers -79, freshmen +0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More →	1169 (#59)	-
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +225 elo More →	1085 (#62)	HCA +225 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +9.3 More →	+9.4 (#77)	HCA +9.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +9.3 More →	+9.0 (#81)	HCA +9.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More →	0.817 (#84)	-
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +4.2 More →	0.703 (#81)	AdjNet +4.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +4.2 More →	0.705 (#81)	AdjNet +4.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 63.3 \| AdjD 64.5 More →	0.680 (#76)	AdjO 63.3 \| AdjD 64.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 63.3 \| AdjD 64.5 More →	0.624 (#83)	AdjO 63.3 \| AdjD 64.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.726 (#73)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.716 (#73)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 218 \| GP 1 More →	1174 (#60)	RD 218 \| GP 1

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2026-11-02	vs	Arkansas State Red Wolves	W	84 - 74
2026-11-07	vs	High Point Panthers	L	71 - 78
2026-11-12	vs	Louisville Cardinals	-	Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Show Alumni If everyone stayed four years

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Numbers	PM	PM GP	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
Grace Kingery	G	2	38.0	23.0	3.5	1.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	18.5	7.0	18	1	18.0	19.8	43.2	25.0	81.8	0.87	55.0	50.0
Tessa Towers	C	2	27.5	20.0	12.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	2.0	15.0	16.0	12	1	12.0	18.4	53.3	0	88.9	2.43	58.9	53.3
Lilli Barnes	G	2	30.0	19.0	11.0	5.0	1.0	1.5	6.0	9.5	22.0	2	1	2.0	2.7	68.4	66.7	62.5	-1.4	73.0	73.7
Karsyn Norman	G	2	28.0	4.0	1.5	3.5	1.0	0.0	2.5	6.0	1.5	2	1	2.0	3.6	16.7	20.0	100.0	-0.19	31.1	25.0
Aniss Tagayi	F	2	23.0	3.5	4.0	2.5	2.0	0.0	2.5	3.5	6.0	5	1	5.0	7.9	28.6	0.0	30.0	0.28	30.7	28.6
Zhen Verburgt	F	2	14.0	3.0	3.0	1.0	0.5	0.5	1.0	8.0	-1.0	0	1	0.0	0.0	12.5	20.0	0	-1.99	18.8	18.8
Helen Holley	F	2	12.5	3.0	2.5	0.0	2.0	1.0	0.5	3.5	4.5	-2	1	-2.0	-5.7	42.9	0.0	0.0	-1.47	38.1	42.9
Faith Walker	G	2	22.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	1.5	3.0	2.0	8	1	8.0	11.1	16.7	33.3	25.0	-2.75	25.8	25.0
Giorgia Gorini	G	2	5.0	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	-0.5	5	1	5.0	23.4	0.0	0.0	0	0.29	0.0	0.0
Klaske Miedema	F	0	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

132 located field-goal attempts in 2 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Points: who the team's points here most likely come from

Misses: who misses most here

Grace KingeryTessa TowersKarsyn NormanAniss TagayiFaith WalkerZhen VerburgtGiorgia Gorini

Zone	FGM-FGA	FG%	Pts	Top scorer	Runner-up	Most misses	Runner-up
Restricted area	26-42	61.9	52	Tessa Towers 38% (20 pts)	Lilli Barnes 31% (16 pts)	Tessa Towers 50% (8 misses)	Zhen Verburgt 19% (3 misses)
Paint (non-RA)	16-41	39.0	32	Grace Kingery 44% (14 pts)	Tessa Towers 31% (10 pts)	Tessa Towers 24% (6 misses)	Aniss Tagayi 12% (3 misses)
Mid-range left	0-2	0.0	0	-	-	Grace Kingery 50% (1 misses)	Lilli Barnes 50% (1 misses)
Mid-range center	1-2	50.0	2	Tessa Towers 100% (2 pts)	-	Aniss Tagayi 100% (1 misses)	-
Mid-range right	0-0	-	0	-	-	-	-
Left corner 3	1-4	25.0	3	Grace Kingery 100% (3 pts)	-	Grace Kingery 33% (1 misses)	Karsyn Norman 33% (1 misses)
Right corner 3	2-7	28.6	6	Grace Kingery 50% (3 pts)	Lilli Barnes 50% (3 pts)	Karsyn Norman 60% (3 misses)	Grace Kingery 20% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 left	4-20	20.0	12	Karsyn Norman 50% (6 pts)	Grace Kingery 25% (3 pts)	Grace Kingery 56% (9 misses)	Zhen Verburgt 19% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 center	2-6	33.3	6	Grace Kingery 100% (6 pts)	-	Zhen Verburgt 50% (2 misses)	Grace Kingery 25% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 right	2-8	25.0	6	Faith Walker 50% (3 pts)	Zhen Verburgt 50% (3 pts)	Giorgia Gorini 33% (2 misses)	Grace Kingery 33% (2 misses)