Ball State
Model Outputs
2002-2003
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 980 (#170) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 996 (#163) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 949 (#232) | HCA +112 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +0.5 (#159) | HCA +3.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -1.5 (#181) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.396 (#214) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.475 (#171) | AdjNet -0.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.474 (#171) | AdjNet -0.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.491 (#172) | AdjO 73.0 | AdjD 73.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.435 (#221) | AdjO 73.4 | AdjD 76.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.450 (#184) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.439 (#190) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 958 (#191) | RD 138 | GP 30 |
2003 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002-11-22 | N | Jacksonville State | W | 72 - 64 |
| 2002-11-23 | N | Weber State | L | 67 - 72 |
| 2002-11-24 | N | Nebraska | W | 73 - 65 |
| 2002-11-30 | @ | Butler | L | 45 - 71 |
| 2002-12-03 | vs | IU Indy | W | 85 - 69 |
| 2002-12-07 | vs | Wright State | W | 66 - 59 |
| 2002-12-14 | vs | Indiana State | W | 76 - 68 |
| 2002-12-17 | @ | Dayton | L | 65 - 80 |
| 2002-12-20 | @ | Xavier | L | 58 - 87 |
| 2002-12-31 | vs | Indiana | L | 62 - 76 |
| 2003-01-04 | @ | Akron | L | 104 - 105 |
| 2003-01-07 | @ | Bowling Green | L | 57 - 61 |
| 2003-01-11 | vs | Northern Illinois | L | 64 - 66 |
| 2003-01-15 | vs | Western Michigan | L | 52 - 71 |
| 2003-01-18 | vs | Toledo | W | 77 - 72 |
| 2003-01-21 | @ | Eastern Michigan | W | 91 - 90 |
| 2003-01-25 | @ | Miami (OH) | L | 56 - 58 |
| 2003-01-28 | vs | Marshall | W | 96 - 75 |
| 2003-02-01 | @ | Northern Illinois | L | 60 - 78 |
| 2003-02-06 | vs | Ohio | W | 82 - 68 |
| 2003-02-09 | vs | Miami (OH) | W | 78 - 70 |
| 2003-02-12 | vs | Kent State | W | 83 - 75 |
| 2003-02-15 | @ | Buffalo | W | 80 - 68 |
| 2003-02-19 | @ | Central Michigan | L | 92 - 94 |
| 2003-02-22 | @ | Western Kentucky | L | 79 - 84 |
| 2003-02-26 | vs | Bowling Green | W | 94 - 73 |
| 2003-03-01 | @ | Western Michigan | L | 74 - 86 |
| 2003-03-05 | @ | Toledo | L | 64 - 100 |
| 2003-03-08 | vs | Central Michigan | L | 66 - 86 |
| 2003-03-10 | vs | Bowling Green | L | 81 - 90 |
2003 Roster
No roster data available for this season.