Azusa Pacific
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1129 (#73) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1105 (#86) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1159 (#33) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +12.6 (#67) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +1.2 (#345) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.867 (#202) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.784 (#194) | NetEff +9.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.900 (#206) | AdjNet +19.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.919 (#195) | AdjNet +20.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.777 (#192) | AdjO 74.7 | AdjD 61.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.559 (#228) | AdjO 69.2 | AdjD 66.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.664 (#222) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.666 (#213) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1194 (#50) | RD 102 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Cal St. San Marcos | L | 52 - 58 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Cal Poly Pomona | W | 54 - 53 |
| 2025-11-18 | vs | Cal State LA | L | 61 - 73 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Seattle Pacific | W | 75 - 59 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Western Wash. | L | 65 - 82 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Cal St. Dom. Hills | W | 79 - 77 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | CUI | L | 53 - 67 |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | Chaminade | W | 91 - 55 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Point Loma | W | 72 - 65 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Westmont | W | 71 - 60 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Jessup | W | 89 - 64 |
| 2026-01-13 | @ | Fresno Pacific | W | 88 - 65 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Point Loma | L | 55 - 80 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Vanguard | W | 74 - 73 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Hawaii Hilo | W | 75 - 64 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Dominican (CA) | W | 82 - 80 |
| 2026-02-02 | vs | Hawaii Pacific | W | 76 - 67 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | CUI | W | 62 - 54 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Jessup | W | 64 - 63 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Jones | - | 18 | 29.2 | 14.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 37.6 | 34.0 | 84.1 | 1.36 | 53.7 | 48.4 |
| Audrey Sayoc | - | 17 | 33.2 | 13.2 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 119 | 6.3 | 23.3 | 42.1 | 39.1 | 67.6 | 0.32 | 52.7 | 50.8 |
| Rachel Roderick | - | 19 | 21.5 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 8.5 | 12.8 | 138 | 6.9 | 31.2 | 45.1 | 0 | 80.8 | 3.81 | 52.8 | 45.1 |
| Elyse Mitchell | - | 17 | 18.9 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 90 | 5.0 | 34.6 | 39.7 | 33.3 | 79.4 | 0.68 | 50.3 | 46.1 |
| Keisharna Lucas | - | 19 | 31.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 20 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 38.8 | 24.1 | 71.4 | 0.99 | 45.5 | 43.9 |
| Rome Falcocchia | - | 19 | 22.6 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 78 | 3.9 | 21.0 | 42.4 | 0.0 | 74.1 | -1.78 | 46.9 | 42.4 |
| Calista Arzaga | - | 19 | 14.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 87 | 4.3 | 43.3 | 45.8 | 34.8 | 53.3 | 4.29 | 53.4 | 52.5 |
| Nivia Glorioso | - | 19 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 54.5 | 0 | 57.1 | -1.72 | 55.6 | 54.5 |
| Vanessa Parilla | - | 19 | 10.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | -80 | -4.0 | -59.5 | 22.1 | 25.0 | 64.7 | -2.95 | 33.1 | 29.2 |
| Sadie Pierce | - | 19 | 11.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | -17 | -0.8 | -11.3 | 26.2 | 23.3 | 100.0 | -1.42 | 39.2 | 34.5 |
| Aaliyah Garcia | - | 9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 0.0 | -26 | -2.4 | -89.5 | 28.6 | 28.6 | 50.0 | 0.33 | 38.1 | 35.7 |
| Petra Falcocchia | - | 14 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | -23 | -1.4 | -78.7 | 11.1 | 0 | 50.0 | -2.35 | 17.0 | 11.1 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG