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Aurora

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Aurora
Program History

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1160 (#18) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1152 (#57) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → +11.7 (#74) HCA +2.4
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.915 (#228) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +21.0 More → 0.940 (#55) NetEff +21.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +9.6 More → 0.750 (#296) AdjNet +9.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +9.2 More → 0.748 (#297) AdjNet +9.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 71.9 | AdjD 64.8 More → 0.656 (#274) AdjO 71.9 | AdjD 64.8

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-08 @ Judson (IL) W 70 - 68
2024-11-14 @ Beloit W 72 - 58
2024-11-20 vs North Central (IL) W 83 - 63
2024-11-22 @ Earlham W 74 - 70
2024-11-23 vs Wis.-Stevens Point L 67 - 70
2024-11-26 vs Illinois Col. W 94 - 52
2024-12-04 vs Wis. Lutheran L 56 - 71
2024-12-07 vs Marian (WI) W 98 - 71
2024-12-10 vs Trinity Christian W 87 - 52
2024-12-18 @ Knox L 77 - 85
2025-01-08 @ Dominican (IL) W 90 - 43
2025-01-11 @ Marian (WI) W 67 - 42
2025-01-15 @ Edgewood W 81 - 56
2025-01-18 vs St. Norbert L 50 - 56
2025-01-22 @ Rockford W 70 - 60
2025-01-25 @ Wis. Lutheran L 47 - 57
2025-01-29 vs Benedictine (IL) W 81 - 72
2025-02-01 vs Alverno W 92 - 68
2025-02-05 vs Illinois Tech W 96 - 65
2025-02-08 @ MSOE L 49 - 52
2025-02-13 vs Concordia Chicago W 92 - 57
2025-02-15 vs Concordia Wisconsin L 62 - 64
2025-02-19 @ Lakeland W 65 - 54
2025-02-22 @ Benedictine (IL) W 65 - 61
2025-02-25 vs Benedictine (IL) L 72 - 82

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Krystyna Manzanarez - 25 27.0 13.7 4.9 3.0 2.1 0.3 2.4 11.4 10.2 119 3.6 4.6 43.7 32.3 81.0 0.65 54.5 50.9
Riley Doggett - 25 24.2 10.6 4.2 1.6 1.8 0.5 1.8 9.2 7.6 80 2.5 3.9 42.2 33.6 60.9 0.29 52.7 51.3
Eliot Dojutrek - 23 23.5 10.4 3.2 0.9 1.3 0.3 1.9 9.3 5.0 7 0.3 0.5 39.9 25.0 68.2 -0.09 47.7 42.3
Kylie Fischbach - 24 22.4 10.2 4.0 2.5 2.0 0.2 1.9 8.5 8.5 57 1.8 2.8 41.7 25.7 78.9 -0.07 51.9 46.1
Jennifer Heinberg - 25 15.1 7.0 2.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 1.2 6.4 3.0 43 1.3 2.0 36.6 32.5 94.1 0.1 51.6 49.1
Selena Vargas - 25 24.8 5.2 8.2 3.1 1.6 0.5 2.1 3.4 13.0 20 1.0 1.4 58.1 0.0 51.8 -0.03 58.3 58.1
Alina Anderson - 25 16.5 5.2 4.0 1.1 0.8 0.2 1.4 5.2 4.8 60 1.9 2.9 38.0 30.5 65.2 0.03 47.1 45.0
Danielle Antoine - 1 17.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 2.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 100.0 - 25.8 0.0
Kamryn Bullock - 25 15.6 3.9 2.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.9 5.1 1.8 -33 -1.4 -2.3 24.2 22.3 70.0 -0.46 35.5 32.4
Danielle Antione - 23 12.8 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.6 3.5 2.7 -47 -2.0 -3.5 28.7 29.5 80.0 -0.43 45.6 36.9
Aurora Eklund - 24 8.8 3.7 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.0 2.8 2.7 22 0.7 1.4 48.5 21.4 65.5 0.27 54.5 50.7
Elizabeth Griswold - 25 3.7 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.4 11 0.5 1.5 36.8 0.0 60.0 0.27 44.9 36.8
Katheryn Rutherford - 21 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 - - - 50.0 50.0 100.0 - 65.4 58.3
Dallas Poll - 23 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 - - - 20.0 0.0 66.7 - 31.6 20.0
Jessica Oman - 23 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 48 4.0 18.4 28.6 33.3 0 0.39 42.9 42.9
Grace Prucha - 21 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 - - - 40.0 100.0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Courtney Schuk - 23 1.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 50 3.3 12.4 10.0 10.0 25.0 0.32 17.0 15.0
Paulina Geyrhalter - 19 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 - - - 20.0 0.0 0 - 20.0 20.0
Gabrielle Watkins - 21 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -81 -6.2 -8.3 0 0 0 -0.55 0 0
Abigail Becker - 19 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Braxtyn Dunham - 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Kiersten Powell - 20 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -45 -1.8 -4.2 0 0 0 -0.55 0 0
Olivia Moser - 21 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Lexie Austin - 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Gracie Sipes - 14 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG