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Aurora

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Aurora
Program History

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1166 (#14) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1234 (#13) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +2.3 (#92) HCA +2.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.660 (#359) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +9.4 More → 0.734 (#154) NetEff +9.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -0.7 More → 0.479 (#362) AdjNet -0.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -0.9 More → 0.474 (#360) AdjNet -0.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 76.4 | AdjD 76.7 More → 0.494 (#355) AdjO 76.4 | AdjD 76.7

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-08 vs Dubuque L 76 - 88
2024-11-12 vs North Central (IL) L 71 - 78
2024-11-16 @ MSOE W 86 - 82
2024-11-20 vs Wis.-Whitewater L 72 - 75
2024-11-26 @ Millikin L 45 - 49
2024-11-30 @ UIC L 76 - 91
2024-12-04 vs Concordia Wisconsin W 75 - 68
2024-12-07 @ St. Norbert L 63 - 74
2024-12-14 @ Marian (WI) L 64 - 72
2024-12-17 @ Albion W 60 - 58
2024-12-30 vs Monmouth (IL) W 74 - 71
2025-01-04 @ Concordia Chicago L 64 - 67
2025-01-08 vs Dominican (IL) W 98 - 64
2025-01-11 vs Marian (WI) L 67 - 68
2025-01-15 vs Edgewood W 96 - 66
2025-01-18 vs St. Norbert W 76 - 62
2025-01-22 vs Rockford W 102 - 90
2025-01-25 @ Wis. Lutheran L 78 - 91
2025-01-29 @ Benedictine (IL) L 73 - 75
2025-02-05 @ Illinois Tech W 96 - 54
2025-02-08 vs MSOE L 86 - 94
2025-02-13 vs Concordia Chicago L 69 - 74
2025-02-15 @ Concordia Wisconsin W 67 - 66
2025-02-19 vs Lakeland W 109 - 60
2025-02-22 @ Dominican (IL) L 97 - 101
2025-02-26 @ St. Norbert L 72 - 83

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Joevonn McCottry - 26 30.9 15.5 4.5 3.3 1.4 0.5 2.1 11.7 11.4 42 3.0 5.3 43.6 33.8 75.3 0.62 54.6 48.0
Isaiah Davis - 26 33.0 12.5 4.7 0.9 1.5 0.3 1.4 9.4 9.1 55 5.0 6.7 42.6 39.7 78.3 1.78 59.9 56.8
Mekhi Doby - 26 27.0 11.5 3.0 2.8 1.3 0.6 2.8 9.4 6.9 90 4.5 12.6 43.7 26.8 64.6 -0.16 50.6 45.9
Dwayne Jervier Jr. - 26 27.2 10.5 7.6 1.4 0.8 0.7 1.2 7.0 12.8 24 1.6 3.0 54.9 35.6 77.3 0.5 63.7 59.3
Maxwell Marius - 26 19.5 7.7 4.0 1.6 0.9 0.3 1.4 5.6 7.5 -4 -0.3 -0.9 50.3 20.0 69.0 1.33 57.0 52.4
Noah Butler - 26 16.3 7.1 2.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.9 5.2 4.7 0 0.0 0.0 43.7 45.0 71.6 0.16 55.9 50.4
Jeffery Hillmer - 25 22.0 5.8 4.2 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.9 4.6 7.2 56 5.6 11.8 55.3 28.6 42.5 1.07 55.1 56.1
Savion Brown - 14 5.4 2.1 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 2.1 1.4 -8 -0.7 -9.2 36.7 26.3 66.7 -0.1 46.3 45.0
Treval Howard - 6 4.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.7 - - - 60.0 33.3 0 - 70.0 70.0
Foster Ogbonna - 25 3.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 -3 -0.6 -20.3 38.9 25.0 80.0 -0.77 53.6 44.4
BJ Harris - 20 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 7 3.5 65.1 46.7 0.0 50.0 -0.89 47.7 46.7
Isaiah Thompson - 25 3.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 16 4.0 24.3 35.3 28.6 100.0 -0.16 50.3 47.1
Isaac Ross - 26 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 8 4.0 117.1 33.3 33.3 0 -1.08 44.4 44.4
Angelo Consorte - 24 1.7 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 3 0.8 9.2 100.0 0 71.4 -0.46 88.6 100.0
James Glazebrooks - 25 4.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 8 1.6 8.8 20.0 28.6 66.7 -0.04 30.6 26.7
Alex Ross - 25 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 15 3.0 260.9 66.7 60.0 0 -1.16 91.7 91.7
Jordan Schroeder - 25 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 - - - 75.0 75.0 0 - 112.5 112.5
Luis Mur Martin - 25 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0 -1.47 125.0 125.0
Gevon Grant - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Mike Jones - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8 -8.0 -118.5 0 0 0 -1.12 0 0
Robert Hutson - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Dillon Harrison - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG