Augustana (SD)
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1120 (#77) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1115 (#91) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1065 (#70) | HCA +73 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +14.6 (#58) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +13.8 (#47) | HCA +2.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.668 (#82) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.854 (#67) | AdjNet +15.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.859 (#67) | AdjNet +15.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.732 (#70) | AdjO 84.2 | AdjD 73.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.593 (#85) | AdjO 80.0 | AdjD 75.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.757 (#62) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.733 (#68) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1082 (#105) | RD 163 | GP 29 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2025-2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Missouri Western | L | 68 - 69 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Northwest Mo. St. | L | 72 - 85 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | South Dakota Mines | W | 91 - 74 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Black Hills St. | L | 71 - 75 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Wayne St. (NE) | W | 94 - 86 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs | Bellevue | W | 90 - 63 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Southwest Minn. St. | W | 97 - 75 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Sioux Falls | W | 108 - 106 |
| 2025-12-11 | @ | St. Cloud St. | L | 61 - 70 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Minnesota St. | W | 76 - 68 |
| 2025-12-18 | vs | Winona St. | W | 84 - 68 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Concordia-St. Paul | W | 82 - 69 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Wayne St. (NE) | L | 73 - 76 |
| 2026-01-09 | vs | Jamestown | L | 77 - 87 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Northern St. | L | 88 - 91 |
| 2026-01-16 | @ | MSU Moorhead | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Minn.-Crookston | W | 85 - 77 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Minot St. | W | 82 - 75 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Mary | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Bemidji St. | W | 69 - 67 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Minn. Duluth | W | 96 - 84 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Concordia-St. Paul | W | 88 - 81 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Winona St. | W | 62 - 54 |
| 2026-02-12 | vs | Minnesota St. | W | 95 - 83 |
| 2026-02-14 | vs | St. Cloud St. | L | 80 - 87 |
| 2026-02-19 | @ | Southwest Minn. St. | L | 67 - 86 |
| 2026-02-21 | vs | Sioux Falls | W | 104 - 93 |
| 2026-02-28 | vs | MSU Moorhead | W | 83 - 82 |
| 2026-03-02 | vs | Minn. Duluth | L | 62 - 72 |
2025-2026 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tameron Ferguson | - | 29 | 35.8 | 20.0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 14.8 | 16.1 | 134 | 26 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 52.3 | 35.8 | 69.2 | -0.93 | 59.4 | 56.9 |
| Caden Hinker | - | 27 | 29.7 | 15.4 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 72 | 25 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 49.2 | 40.8 | 76.0 | -2.43 | 61.5 | 57.8 |
| Sam Rensch | - | 29 | 30.7 | 14.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 128 | 26 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 47.7 | 41.8 | 83.3 | 3.04 | 60.6 | 56.8 |
| Tanner Te Slaa | - | 29 | 30.2 | 10.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 130 | 26 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 38.9 | 35.2 | 84.5 | 1.65 | 56.2 | 50.9 |
| Bennett Fried | - | 29 | 21.5 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 51 | 26 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 65.7 | 35.7 | 71.9 | 0.18 | 69.9 | 67.5 |
| Brady Helgren | - | 27 | 18.8 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 108 | 24 | 4.5 | 10.2 | 54.6 | 43.8 | 42.6 | 2.67 | 56.2 | 57.9 |
| Amari Westmoreland-Vendiola | - | 29 | 21.1 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 80 | 26 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 43.8 | 31.1 | 86.0 | 0.63 | 58.7 | 51.0 |
| Conner Kraft | - | 17 | 10.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2 | 12 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 43.8 | 57.1 | 78.3 | -1.05 | 55.1 | 47.9 |
| Jack Hastreiter | - | 18 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2.6 | -9 | 16 | -0.6 | -2.8 | 50.0 | 37.5 | 100.0 | -2.59 | 62.3 | 60.0 |
| Markus Talley | - | 27 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | -18 | 24 | -0.8 | -5.6 | 43.9 | 43.5 | 100.0 | -1.76 | 57.3 | 56.1 |
| Matt Eng | - | 8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -4 | 5 | -0.8 | -13.8 | 50.0 | 60.0 | 0 | -0.65 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Jonathan Caicedo | - | 4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.25 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Hayden Brown | - | 7 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -8 | 4 | -2.0 | -37.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.54 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jacob Brandt | - | 8 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.2 | -6 | 5 | -1.2 | -26.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.01 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG