Augustana (IL)
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1002 (#340) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1026 (#287) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 988 (#492) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +12.2 (#95) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +4.0 (#295) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.441 (#477) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.756 (#249) | NetEff +8.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.749 (#297) | AdjNet +9.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.752 (#293) | AdjNet +9.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.611 (#294) | AdjO 64.1 | AdjD 59.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.610 (#221) | AdjO 62.8 | AdjD 57.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.655 (#256) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.633 (#271) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1023 (#275) | RD 94 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Monmouth (IL) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | St. Catherine | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Greenville | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Webster | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-02 | vs | North Central (MN) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Ill. Wesleyan | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Millikin | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Coe | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-29 | vs | Loras | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Dubuque | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Elmhurst | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | North Park | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Carroll (WI) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Wheaton (IL) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Carthage | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | North Park | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | North Central (IL) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Carroll (WI) | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cali Papez | - | 17 | 23.1 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 28 | 1.3 | 9.6 | 53.0 | 60.0 | 86.0 | 3.21 | 58.9 | 54.0 |
| Tia Lewis | - | 17 | 24.6 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 9.5 | 9.5 | -1 | -0.0 | -0.4 | 46.6 | 30.8 | 73.5 | 2.02 | 53.1 | 50.3 |
| Audrey Erickson | - | 15 | 26.9 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 4.8 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 55 | 2.9 | 31.8 | 43.3 | 34.0 | 68.4 | 3.03 | 53.1 | 50.0 |
| Paige Melton | - | 17 | 32.0 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 7.5 | 6.8 | -52 | -2.5 | -13.4 | 40.9 | 27.8 | 64.9 | -0.91 | 48.0 | 42.9 |
| Jazmeriah Jones | - | 17 | 26.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 7.3 | 5.0 | -9 | -0.4 | -2.7 | 45.2 | 31.9 | 70.6 | 1.63 | 52.9 | 51.2 |
| Kadence Tatum | - | 14 | 23.6 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 5.6 | -39 | -2.2 | -12.0 | 37.7 | 50.0 | 62.5 | -1.64 | 49.3 | 44.3 |
| Giulia Milazzo | - | 15 | 12.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | -6 | -0.4 | -2.8 | 34.5 | 22.2 | 75.0 | 0.05 | 45.7 | 39.7 |
| Carly Stone | - | 10 | 20.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 5.5 | 1.2 | -43 | -3.1 | -72.9 | 23.6 | 20.6 | 50.0 | -0.88 | 31.2 | 30.0 |
| Ciara Hull | - | 16 | 14.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | -4 | -0.2 | -2.7 | 48.9 | 0.0 | 63.6 | 0.86 | 51.2 | 48.9 |
| Sophia Semler | - | 1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -4.0 | -3 | -3.0 | -39.6 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Lexi Hayes | - | 14 | 9.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | -21 | -1.2 | -28.7 | 26.5 | 21.4 | 75.0 | -0.52 | 36.0 | 30.9 |
| Sophia Klacik | - | 12 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | -7 | -0.5 | -10.1 | 29.2 | 28.6 | 50.0 | -2.53 | 42.2 | 41.7 |
| Jaida Collins | - | 5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | -10 | -2.0 | -50.2 | 20.0 | 33.3 | 0 | - | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Grace Lizak | - | 6 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | -0.8 | -8 | -1.1 | -51.5 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| Tara Kovacevic | - | 4 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.8 | 46.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Kamelia Aziz | - | 4 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3 | 1.0 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Ella Chapman | - | 4 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -4 | -0.8 | -38.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | 0 |
| Abby Oster | - | 1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG