Augustana (IL) - 2026-2027

Model Outputs

2026-2027

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More →	1019 (#182)	-
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +68 elo More →	983 (#208)	HCA +68 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +68 elo More →	983 (#208)	HCA +68 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +4.0 More →	-5.0 (#254)	HCA +4.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +4.0 More →	-5.0 (#254)	HCA +4.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More →	0.415 (#213)	-
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 65.8 \| AdjD 66.9 More →	0.470 (#225)	AdjO 65.8 \| AdjD 66.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.9 \| AdjD 67.0 More →	0.470 (#225)	AdjO 65.9 \| AdjD 67.0
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 215 \| GP 1 More →	984 (#207)	RD 215 \| GP 1

Rank through the season

League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.

Elo Points Off/Def Recency

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2026-11-07	@	Illinois St.	L	54 - 96
2026-11-13	vs	Bethany (WV)	W	79 - 75

2026-2027 Roster

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Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions and box-score rates; an unlisted position is inferred from those rates, and missing rates are treated as zero. Legend numbers are each player's share of recorded roster minutes, scaled to five players' regulation minutes; they can differ from minutes per game in the roster below, especially when players miss games or coverage is incomplete. Each position column totals one regulation game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Numbers	PM	PM GP	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
Audrey Erickson	-	1	33.7	23.0	5.0	1.0	3.0	1.0	4.0	19.0	10.0	-	-	-	-	31.6	50.0	100.0	-	51.1	39.5
Jazmeriah Jones	-	1	18.7	10.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	2.0	3.0	10.0	-	-	-	-	66.7	0.0	75.0	-	76.7	66.7
Giulia Milazzo	-	1	26.6	9.0	3.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	12.0	6.0	-	-	-	-	33.3	20.0	0.0	-	33.8	37.5
Paige Melton	-	1	32.2	8.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.0	6.0	-	-	-	-	12.5	0	100.0	-	37.6	12.5
Ciara Hull	-	1	27.6	8.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	6.0	5.0	-	-	-	-	50.0	0.0	28.6	-	44.1	50.0
Tia Lewis	-	1	14.7	6.0	4.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	3.0	10.0	3.0	-	-	-	-	30.0	0.0	0	-	30.0	30.0
Makayla McNally	-	1	15.3	6.0	6.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	9.0	4.0	-	-	-	-	33.3	0	0	-	33.3	33.3
Lexi Hayes	-	1	19.2	6.0	2.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	6.0	5.0	-	-	-	-	33.3	0.0	100.0	-	43.6	33.3
Mikayla Saas	-	1	11.0	3.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	4.0	-	-	-	-	50.0	0	50.0	-	52.1	50.0
Sophia Klacik	-	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-	-	0	0	0	-	0	0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG