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Augustana (IL)

Also known as: Augustana (IL)
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1074 (#98) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1029 (#283) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 988 (#492) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +13.4 (#68) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +4.0 (#295) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.441 (#477) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +8.1 More → 0.756 (#249) NetEff +8.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +9.5 More → 0.749 (#297) AdjNet +9.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +9.3 More → 0.752 (#293) AdjNet +9.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 64.1 | AdjD 59.1 More → 0.611 (#294) AdjO 64.1 | AdjD 59.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 62.8 | AdjD 57.9 More → 0.610 (#221) AdjO 62.8 | AdjD 57.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.655 (#256) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.633 (#271) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 94 | GP 22 More → 1023 (#279) RD 94 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ Monmouth (IL) W 94 - 47
2025-11-21 vs St. Catherine L 58 - 67
2025-11-22 vs Greenville W 66 - 45
2025-11-29 @ Webster W 77 - 38
2025-12-02 vs North Central (MN) W 106 - 47
2025-12-03 vs Ill. Wesleyan L 70 - 74
2025-12-13 @ Millikin W 76 - 37
2025-12-16 @ Coe L 39 - 62
2025-12-29 vs Loras W 54 - 52
2025-12-30 @ Dubuque W 83 - 64
2026-01-10 @ Elmhurst L 61 - 64
2026-01-14 @ North Park L 60 - 61
2026-01-17 vs Carroll (WI) L 71 - 75
2026-01-21 vs Wheaton (IL) W 58 - 46
2026-01-24 @ Carthage L 60 - 76
2026-01-28 vs North Park W 72 - 40
2026-02-04 @ North Central (IL) L 55 - 68
2026-02-07 @ Carroll (WI) L 55 - 75

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Isabella Sanneh - 1 20.6 19.0 17.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 27.0 - - - 57.1 0 100.0 - 62.0 57.1
Kristin Edmonds - 1 19.9 17.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 11.0 - - - 54.5 55.6 0 - 77.3 77.3
Mia Donald - 1 19.4 14.0 7.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 7.0 15.0 - - - 71.4 0 50.0 - 66.5 71.4
Greta Dillinger - 1 17.4 12.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 11.0 - - - 66.7 66.7 0 - 100.0 100.0
Cali Papez - 17 23.1 11.8 7.8 1.1 0.5 0.7 1.9 8.9 11.1 28 1.3 9.6 53.0 60.0 86.0 2.26 58.9 54.0
Tia Lewis - 17 24.6 11.0 6.2 1.5 1.5 0.9 2.1 9.5 9.5 -1 -0.0 -0.4 46.6 30.8 73.5 3.18 53.1 50.3
Audrey Erickson - 15 26.9 10.7 4.6 4.1 2.0 0.3 4.8 8.9 7.9 55 2.9 31.8 43.3 34.0 68.4 1.84 53.1 50.0
Clarissa Sauer - 1 21.5 9.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 4.0 - - - 50.0 50.0 0 - 56.2 56.2
Maliyah Elliott - 1 21.9 9.0 2.0 6.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 15.0 - - - 60.0 50.0 100.0 - 76.5 70.0
Paige Melton - 17 32.0 8.6 5.1 1.7 0.9 0.0 2.0 7.5 6.8 -52 -2.5 -13.4 40.9 27.8 64.9 0.61 48.0 42.9
Jazmeriah Jones - 17 26.0 8.2 3.5 1.2 0.9 0.1 1.6 7.3 5.0 -9 -0.4 -2.7 45.2 31.9 70.6 1.59 52.9 51.2
Miranda Lomax - 1 16.3 8.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 8.0 - - - 25.0 25.0 100.0 - 45.0 37.5
Payton Hardy - 1 21.1 7.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 11.0 - - - 40.0 66.7 50.0 - 59.5 60.0
Kadence Tatum - 14 23.6 5.3 2.9 2.3 1.4 0.1 2.0 4.4 5.6 -39 -2.2 -12.0 37.7 50.0 62.5 1.89 49.3 44.3
Giulia Milazzo - 15 12.7 4.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 3.9 1.1 -6 -0.4 -2.8 34.5 22.2 75.0 -1.71 45.7 39.7
Ava Pautz - 1 15.2 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 - - - 100.0 0 100.0 - 106.4 100.0
Marianna Freeman - 1 12.4 4.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 - - - 66.7 0.0 0 - 66.7 66.7
Carly Stone - 10 20.0 3.6 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.2 1.1 5.5 1.2 -43 -3.1 -72.9 23.6 20.6 50.0 -2.59 31.2 30.0
Ciara Hull - 16 14.7 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.6 2.8 2.6 -4 -0.2 -2.7 48.9 0.0 63.6 -2.02 51.2 48.9
Addie Hanna - 1 14.4 3.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 - - - 50.0 50.0 0 - 75.0 75.0
Sophia Semler - 1 5.3 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 -4.0 -3 -3.0 -39.6 25.0 0.0 0 -0.61 25.0 25.0
Lexi Hayes - 14 9.7 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.9 0.3 1.6 2.4 0.8 -21 -1.2 -28.7 26.5 21.4 75.0 -1.28 36.0 30.9
Sophia Klacik - 12 5.2 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.5 -7 -0.5 -10.1 29.2 28.6 50.0 -1.19 42.2 41.7
Jaida Collins - 5 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.2 -10 -2.0 -50.2 20.0 33.3 0 -0.76 30.0 30.0
Grace Lizak - 6 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.8 -0.8 -8 -1.1 -51.5 20.0 0.0 0 -0.33 20.0 20.0
Ella Chapman - 4 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -4 -0.8 -38.1 0 0 0.0 -0.23 0.0 0
Tara Kovacevic - 4 1.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 3 0.8 46.8 0 0 0 0.56 0 0
Kamelia Aziz - 4 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3 1.0 50.0 0 0 0 0.61 0 0
Abby Oster - 1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG