Auburn
Model Outputs
2003-2004
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | Data withheld: source-integrity hold | Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and includes an unverified participant universe. |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1483 (#69) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 944 (#236) | HCA +114 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +32.9 (#75) | HCA +3.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +6.8 (#73) | HCA +3.5 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.474 (#57) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.698 (#38) | AdjNet +7.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.702 (#38) | AdjNet +7.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.543 (#115) | AdjO 68.7 | AdjD 66.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.653 (#90) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.627 (#97) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1080 (#101) | RD 134 | GP 28 |
2004 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-11-17 | vs | College of Charleston | W | 66 - 62 |
| 2003-11-21 | vs | Western Kentucky | W | 86 - 64 |
| 2003-11-23 | vs | Maryland–Eastern Shore | W | 85 - 61 |
| 2003-11-29 | N | Grambling | W | 105 - 56 |
| 2003-12-01 | vs | Colorado State | W | 84 - 54 |
| 2003-12-07 | vs | Air Force | W | 68 - 49 |
| 2003-12-10 | vs | Montana | W | 73 - 51 |
| 2003-12-20 | @ | Nevada–Las Vegas | L | 69 - 82 |
| 2003-12-22 | vs | Georgia State | L | 72 - 77 |
| 2003-12-30 | vs | Southern Mississippi | W | 78 - 60 |
| 2004-01-02 | vs | New Orleans | W | 70 - 55 |
| 2004-01-07 | @ | Vanderbilt | L | 53 - 59 |
| 2004-01-10 | vs | Mississippi | W | 80 - 53 |
| 2004-01-14 | vs | South Carolina | L | 51 - 53 |
| 2004-01-17 | @ | Alabama | L | 46 - 69 |
| 2004-01-21 | vs | Arkansas | W | 70 - 63 |
| 2004-01-24 | @ | Florida | L | 52 - 68 |
| 2004-01-31 | vs | Mississippi State | L | 68 - 73 |
| 2004-02-04 | @ | Arkansas | L | 52 - 74 |
| 2004-02-07 | vs | Georgia | W | 57 - 54 |
| 2004-02-14 | @ | Mississippi | L | 68 - 72 |
| 2004-02-18 | @ | Louisiana State | W | 80 - 68 |
| 2004-02-21 | vs | Kentucky | L | 59 - 68 |
| 2004-02-24 | vs | Alabama | L | 71 - 72 |
| 2004-02-28 | @ | Tennessee | L | 69 - 75 |
| 2004-03-02 | @ | Mississippi State | L | 91 - 105 |
| 2004-03-06 | vs | Louisiana State | W | 78 - 66 |
| 2004-03-11 | N | Georgia | L | 59 - 73 |
2004 Roster
Minutes by Position
Not enough player minute data to plot.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Killingsworth | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Brandon Robinson | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Ian Young | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Nathan Watson | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Quinnel Brown | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Kyle Davis | C | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Ronny LeMelle | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Lewis Monroe | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Dwayne Curtis | C | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Troy Gaines | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Chris Lollar | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Rodney Tucker | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Jonathan Lewis | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Danny Wicke | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Moses Edun | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG