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Assumption

Also known as: Assumption
Program History

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1199 (#6) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1236 (#10) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +4.5 (#154) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.773 (#261) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +11.9 More → 0.842 (#97) NetEff +11.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +8.6 More → 0.729 (#309) AdjNet +8.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +9.0 More → 0.743 (#308) AdjNet +9.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 63.5 | AdjD 58.0 More → 0.622 (#313) AdjO 63.5 | AdjD 58.0

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-08 @ Roberts Wesleyan W 68 - 59
2024-11-09 vs Daemen W 77 - 72
2024-11-13 vs Post W 76 - 47
2024-11-16 vs Felician W 74 - 35
2024-11-20 vs Franklin Pierce W 49 - 48
2024-11-23 vs Holy Family L 50 - 56
2024-11-26 vs New Haven W 54 - 52
2024-12-01 @ Mercy W 63 - 60
2024-12-04 @ Saint Michael's L 61 - 63
2024-12-15 @ Dominican (NY) W 64 - 62
2024-12-18 @ Adelphi W 54 - 50
2024-12-22 vs Georgian Court W 69 - 51
2025-01-02 @ Saint Anselm L 61 - 70
2025-01-05 @ Southern Conn. St. L 55 - 70
2025-01-08 vs Southern N.H. L 54 - 59
2025-01-11 vs Bentley L 40 - 68
2025-01-14 @ American Int'l W 53 - 52
2025-01-18 @ Pace L 61 - 67
2025-01-22 @ New Haven L 30 - 39
2025-01-25 vs Adelphi W 53 - 45
2025-01-28 @ Franklin Pierce L 44 - 59
2025-02-01 vs Saint Anselm L 51 - 56
2025-02-05 vs Saint Michael's W 49 - 43
2025-02-08 @ Bentley L 39 - 58
2025-02-11 @ Southern N.H. L 62 - 68
2025-02-15 vs Southern Conn. St. W 63 - 52
2025-02-19 vs American Int'l W 59 - 36
2025-02-25 vs Pace W 53 - 41
2025-02-28 vs Franklin Pierce W 65 - 53
2025-03-02 @ New Haven W 57 - 54
2025-03-06 vs Adelphi W 54 - 48
2025-03-09 @ Bentley L 54 - 64
2025-03-14 @ Holy Family L 53 - 67

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Marina Callahan - 32 29.1 13.3 8.3 2.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 11.9 13.6 -2 -0.1 -0.1 41.1 29.5 71.0 0.35 48.0 42.8
Molly Stokes - 33 31.3 12.8 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.4 1.7 11.8 5.0 11 0.4 0.4 38.7 27.4 86.1 0.44 49.9 45.6
Kaijhe Hall - 32 24.1 8.4 7.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 2.4 6.7 9.4 -37 -1.3 -1.3 53.3 0.0 56.2 0.06 54.6 53.3
Teagan Curran - 33 21.2 3.8 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.2 1.8 4.2 1.7 -17 -0.4 -0.5 31.4 20.5 75.0 -0.09 41.7 37.2
Maeve Moriarty - 33 15.4 3.2 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.2 3.2 9 0.2 0.4 35.6 35.3 71.4 0.25 44.0 38.5
Grace Leary - 33 7.9 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.8 -12 -0.6 -1.5 43.9 27.5 88.0 0.04 56.5 50.6
Teagan Kamm - 33 9.7 3.0 2.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 2.6 2.9 17 0.5 0.8 50.6 0 40.0 0.09 49.9 50.6
Antonia Panayides - 33 23.5 3.0 2.1 2.9 0.4 0.2 2.0 3.6 3.0 2 0.1 0.1 26.9 21.9 62.9 0.1 37.2 32.8
Laura Johnson-Shedd - 31 9.3 2.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.7 2.2 1.9 -30 -1.0 -1.7 35.8 0.0 71.4 -0.23 44.3 35.8
Emma Dahl - 33 7.7 1.9 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.1 33 1.2 2.5 38.7 29.2 81.8 0.2 47.9 44.4
Olivia Found - 32 9.9 1.0 0.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.1 -11 -0.4 -1.1 12.1 11.8 81.2 0.08 22.6 15.2
Avah Ingalls - 33 4.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 -8 -0.5 -1.4 37.5 22.2 60.0 -0.08 52.4 43.8
Ashlyn Pacheco - 20 6.6 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.1 0.7 0.2 -29 -3.6 -5.9 35.7 100.0 40.0 -0.19 40.1 39.3
Ashley Pacheco - 15 6.6 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 1.3 0.5 1.1 2 0.2 1.0 14.3 0 33.3 -0.04 20.7 14.3
Emily Collins - 31 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 - - - 100.0 0 0 -0.17 100.0 100.0
Lauryn Wright - 32 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG