Assumption
Model Outputs
2016-2017
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1191 (#44) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1218 (#37) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1096 (#60) | HCA +52 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +12.5 (#49) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +11.8 (#43) | HCA +2.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.837 (#45) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.896 (#42) | AdjNet +18.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.897 (#42) | AdjNet +18.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.738 (#42) | AdjO 64.6 | AdjD 53.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.656 (#57) | AdjO 62.0 | AdjD 55.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.788 (#44) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.775 (#45) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1216 (#38) | RD 131 | GP 23 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2016-2017 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-13 | vs | Post | W | 78 - 42 |
| 2016-11-16 | @ | Stonehill | L | 48 - 56 |
| 2016-11-19 | vs | Saint Michael's | - | Preview |
| 2016-11-22 | @ | Bentley | L | 65 - 76 |
| 2016-11-27 | vs | Queens (NY) | W | 67 - 59 |
| 2016-11-30 | vs | Southern N.H. | W | 66 - 54 |
| 2016-12-03 | @ | Franklin Pierce | W | 69 - 61 |
| 2016-12-06 | vs | Saint Anselm | W | 62 - 52 |
| 2016-12-08 | vs | Merrimack | W | 63 - 47 |
| 2016-12-19 | @ | Post | W | 86 - 43 |
| 2016-12-29 | vs | LIU Post | W | 67 - 59 |
| 2017-01-04 | @ | American Int'l | W | 66 - 56 |
| 2017-01-07 | @ | Le Moyne | L | 42 - 48 |
| 2017-01-11 | vs | Saint Rose | W | 69 - 46 |
| 2017-01-14 | @ | New Haven | W | 62 - 51 |
| 2017-01-17 | @ | St. Thomas Aquinas | W | 58 - 55 |
| 2017-01-21 | @ | Pace | W | 67 - 61 |
| 2017-01-24 | vs | Southern Conn. St. | L | 43 - 48 |
| 2017-01-28 | vs | Adelphi | W | 63 - 58 |
| 2017-02-01 | @ | Southern N.H. | L | 53 - 56 |
| 2017-02-04 | vs | Bentley | L | 59 - 73 |
| 2017-02-07 | @ | Saint Anselm | W | 55 - 46 |
| 2017-02-11 | vs | Stonehill | W | 53 - 44 |
| 2017-02-15 | @ | Merrimack | W | 56 - 42 |
| 2017-02-18 | @ | Saint Michael's | W | 64 - 50 |
| 2017-02-21 | vs | Franklin Pierce | W | 68 - 49 |
| 2017-02-26 | vs | Le Moyne | L | 54 - 62 |
| 2017-03-10 | @ | Queens (NY) | L | 48 - 69 |
2016-2017 Roster
No roster data available for this season.