Assumption
Model Outputs
2016-2017
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 826 (#264) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 830 (#265) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 886 (#266) | HCA +68 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +0.4 (#229) | HCA +2.5 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +0.3 (#210) | HCA +2.8 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.307 (#248) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.425 (#244) | AdjNet -2.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.426 (#244) | AdjNet -2.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.459 (#244) | AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 73.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.440 (#232) | AdjO 70.1 | AdjD 72.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.392 (#248) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.389 (#250) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 846 (#251) | RD 160 | GP 27 |
2017 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-11 | vs | Queens (NY) | L | 87 - 93 |
| 2016-11-12 | vs | Alliance | L | 67 - 68 |
| 2016-11-16 | @ | Stonehill | W | 74 - 59 |
| 2016-11-19 | vs | Saint Michael's | W | 82 - 78 |
| 2016-11-22 | @ | Bentley | L | 72 - 80 |
| 2016-11-30 | vs | Southern N.H. | L | 71 - 72 |
| 2016-12-03 | @ | Franklin Pierce | L | 61 - 84 |
| 2016-12-06 | vs | Saint Anselm | L | 62 - 105 |
| 2016-12-08 | vs | Merrimack | L | 59 - 62 |
| 2016-12-17 | @ | Holy Family | L | 69 - 76 |
| 2016-12-18 | vs | Jefferson | L | 84 - 90 |
| 2016-12-30 | vs | Molloy | L | 68 - 70 |
| 2017-01-04 | @ | American Int'l | W | 77 - 72 |
| 2017-01-07 | @ | Le Moyne | L | 59 - 83 |
| 2017-01-11 | vs | Saint Rose | L | 65 - 71 |
| 2017-01-14 | @ | New Haven | L | 78 - 80 |
| 2017-01-17 | vs | Concordia (NY) | W | 87 - 81 |
| 2017-01-21 | @ | Pace | W | 92 - 85 |
| 2017-01-24 | vs | Southern Conn. St. | L | 60 - 67 |
| 2017-01-28 | vs | Adelphi | L | 73 - 83 |
| 2017-01-30 | vs | Mercy | W | 79 - 62 |
| 2017-02-01 | @ | Southern N.H. | L | 58 - 67 |
| 2017-02-04 | vs | Bentley | L | 63 - 70 |
| 2017-02-07 | @ | Saint Anselm | L | 61 - 81 |
| 2017-02-11 | vs | Stonehill | L | 67 - 70 |
| 2017-02-15 | @ | Merrimack | L | 74 - 80 |
| 2017-02-18 | @ | Saint Michael's | W | 98 - 88 |
| 2017-02-21 | vs | Franklin Pierce | L | 65 - 70 |
2017 Roster
No roster data available for this season.