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Assumption

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2020 2019 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: Assumption
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1055 (#117) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1098 (#96) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +73 elo More → 1015 (#127) HCA +73 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → +8.2 (#144) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More → +3.5 (#182) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.564 (#129) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +66.7 More → 1.000 (#22) NetEff +66.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +7.6 More → 0.707 (#145) AdjNet +7.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +7.7 More → 0.709 (#147) AdjNet +7.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 82.4 | AdjD 76.4 More → 0.633 (#139) AdjO 82.4 | AdjD 76.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 76.8 | AdjD 75.5 More → 0.529 (#142) AdjO 76.8 | AdjD 75.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.619 (#142) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.598 (#144) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 127 | GP 30 More → 1093 (#96) RD 127 | GP 30

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Chestnut Hill W 87 - 64
2025-11-15 vs St. Thomas Aquinas W 98 - 90
2025-11-19 vs Post W 91 - 74
2025-11-22 vs Franklin Pierce W 115 - 70
2025-11-25 @ Bentley L 77 - 79
2025-11-30 vs Queens (NY) W 104 - 91
2025-12-03 @ Pace W 75 - 64
2025-12-06 vs Southern N.H. W 78 - 71
2025-12-17 @ Daemen L 67 - 77
2025-12-19 @ Nova Southeastern L 68 - 125
2025-12-21 @ Caldwell L 92 - 94
2026-01-04 @ Saint Michael's L 70 - 81
2026-01-07 vs Adelphi W 77 - 67
2026-01-10 @ American Int'l W 91 - 80
2026-01-13 @ Southern Conn. St. W 74 - 68
2026-01-17 vs Bentley L 81 - 85
2026-01-21 @ Saint Anselm L 86 - 100
2026-01-24 vs Franklin Pierce - Incomplete score
2026-01-28 @ Southern N.H. - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 vs Saint Michael's L 77 - 79
2026-02-04 @ Adelphi L 59 - 79
2026-02-07 vs American Int'l W 69 - 65
2026-02-10 vs Southern Conn. St. W 66 - 56
2026-02-14 @ Bentley L 62 - 77
2026-02-18 vs Saint Anselm W 94 - 82
2026-02-21 @ Franklin Pierce W 86 - 80
2026-02-25 vs Pace L 59 - 62
2026-02-28 vs Adelphi W 76 - 63
2026-03-04 @ Saint Anselm L 77 - 90
2026-03-14 @ Saint Anselm L 81 - 92

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Tayeshawn Cunningham-Pemberton - 27 27.6 14.3 4.2 1.0 1.9 0.4 2.0 10.3 9.5 62 23 2.7 4.1 48.9 34.9 64.4 1.06 57.4 54.1
Daouda Dembele - 29 25.6 12.1 5.2 1.3 1.3 0.8 1.8 9.4 9.5 64 24 2.7 4.4 49.5 30.3 66.4 0.61 54.8 51.3
Zamareon McCown - 29 30.1 11.5 3.0 4.2 1.3 0.1 1.7 10.0 8.4 22 24 0.9 1.3 46.9 27.0 75.9 0.21 52.8 49.8
Barilugbene Mawo - 28 23.4 10.8 4.1 0.9 1.6 0.5 1.1 8.6 8.2 68 24 2.8 5.0 43.8 36.3 70.4 1.37 57.1 54.8
Noah Payne - 29 22.8 10.0 2.9 2.9 1.3 0.1 2.1 8.3 6.8 -63 24 -2.6 -5.0 40.9 30.9 77.6 -3.42 51.7 46.1
Leonard Tangishaka - 28 30.3 9.4 3.5 2.8 1.9 1.4 1.1 8.0 9.9 38 23 1.7 2.3 40.9 30.9 84.7 1.45 52.6 47.6
Luke Michalski - 22 12.0 6.1 2.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.5 4.8 3.5 -56 18 -3.1 -9.9 49.1 35.3 62.5 -1.72 54.6 51.9
Jacob Gibbons - 29 18.1 3.6 3.0 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.5 2.7 6.0 -61 24 -2.5 -5.9 46.8 30.6 48.8 -1.83 54.2 53.9
Hudson Geremia - 18 9.0 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.3 3.4 1.9 -36 15 -2.4 -10.2 33.9 29.8 70.0 -0.59 47.4 45.2
Connor O'Leary - 17 7.4 2.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 2.4 2.5 -9 11 -0.8 -4.0 37.5 25.0 81.2 -0.33 52.1 45.0
Myles Alcindor - 16 7.3 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.7 2.5 1.8 4 13 0.3 1.6 17.5 16.7 50.0 0.81 28.7 22.5
Matthew Breen - 7 4.8 1.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 -2 5 -0.4 -2.3 75.0 0 0 -1.59 75.0 75.0
Michael Pittman - 6 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 1 3 0.3 6.6 0.0 0.0 0 -0.43 0.0 0.0
Kyle Gaskins - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Kevin Dunn - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Kyle Hicks - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Evan Brown - 3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1 1 -1.0 -92.3 0 0 0 -0.93 0 0
Luke Latina - 5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 -1 2 -0.5 -9.4 0.0 0.0 0 -0.79 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG