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Assumption

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2020 2019 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: Assumption
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1015 (#169) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1098 (#107) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1045 (#134) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +10.3 (#98) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +1.9 (#298) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.558 (#310) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +66.7 More → 1.000 (#22) NetEff +66.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +7.0 More → 0.691 (#305) AdjNet +7.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +6.8 More → 0.690 (#309) AdjNet +6.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 81.6 | AdjD 76.6 More → 0.611 (#320) AdjO 81.6 | AdjD 76.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 79.5 | AdjD 77.9 More → 0.535 (#239) AdjO 79.5 | AdjD 77.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.617 (#220) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.600 (#230) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 22 More → 1079 (#152) RD 97 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Chestnut Hill W 87 - 64
2025-11-15 vs St. Thomas Aquinas W 98 - 90
2025-11-19 vs Post W 91 - 74
2025-11-22 vs Franklin Pierce W 115 - 70
2025-11-25 @ Bentley L 77 - 79
2025-11-30 vs Queens (NY) W 104 - 91
2025-12-03 @ Pace W 75 - 64
2025-12-06 vs Southern N.H. W 78 - 71
2025-12-17 @ Daemen L 67 - 77
2025-12-19 @ Nova Southeastern L 68 - 125
2025-12-21 @ Caldwell L 92 - 94
2026-01-04 @ Saint Michael's L 70 - 81
2026-01-07 vs Adelphi W 77 - 67
2026-01-10 @ American Int'l W 91 - 80
2026-01-13 @ Southern Conn. St. W 74 - 68
2026-01-17 vs Bentley L 81 - 85
2026-01-21 @ Saint Anselm L 86 - 100
2026-01-24 vs Franklin Pierce W 83 - 69
2026-01-28 @ Southern N.H. W 81 - 74
2026-01-31 vs Saint Michael's L 77 - 79
2026-02-04 @ Adelphi L 59 - 79
2026-02-07 vs American Int'l W 69 - 65

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Tayeshawn Cunningham-Pemberton - 21 26.1 14.7 4.3 1.1 2.0 0.3 2.0 10.3 10.2 44 1.9 10.9 51.2 33.3 66.0 0.2 59.2 56.0
Daouda Dembele - 22 24.0 11.6 5.0 1.4 1.4 0.9 1.9 9.0 9.4 116 4.8 30.9 48.5 26.1 65.2 3.18 54.0 50.0
Noah Payne - 22 23.5 10.7 2.7 3.2 1.3 0.1 2.5 8.5 7.0 -71 -2.6 -22.9 44.1 31.3 83.1 -3.68 55.2 49.7
Zamareon McCown - 22 28.9 10.5 3.1 4.1 1.3 0.1 1.8 9.5 7.9 64 2.7 14.7 45.2 26.5 78.4 2.73 51.3 48.3
Barilugbene Mawo - 21 21.2 9.2 3.7 0.9 1.5 0.5 1.0 7.7 7.1 54 2.5 16.5 42.6 34.3 67.7 2.61 55.2 53.4
Leonard Tangishaka - 22 28.9 8.5 3.5 2.9 1.8 1.4 1.1 7.1 9.9 41 1.7 10.1 40.4 29.0 83.7 -1.91 52.7 46.8
Luke Michalski - 17 13.4 7.1 2.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.8 4.9 4.5 -32 -1.9 -21.9 54.2 35.7 64.1 -2.22 59.9 57.2
Matthew Breen - 2 6.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.5 3.0 - - - 85.7 0 0 - 85.7 85.7
Jacob Gibbons - 22 17.5 4.2 3.0 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.5 2.5 6.9 -32 -1.5 -12.6 58.9 41.7 53.1 -0.48 66.4 67.9
Hudson Geremia - 17 9.5 3.7 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.4 3.6 2.1 -22 -1.2 -20.5 33.9 29.8 70.0 0.01 47.4 45.2
Connor O'Leary - 16 7.8 3.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 2.5 2.6 0 0.0 0.0 37.5 25.0 81.2 -0.12 52.1 45.0
Myles Alcindor - 13 8.7 2.2 2.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.8 2.8 2.4 -4 -0.3 -2.8 18.9 17.4 50.0 2.43 30.6 24.3
Luke Latina - 3 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Michael Pittman - 4 1.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Evan Brown - 2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 1.0 13.0 0 0 0 1.3 0 0
Kyle Gaskins - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Kyle Hicks - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG