Arkansas State
2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)
64.7
PPG
78.7
Opp
-14.0
Margin
31.7%
FG%
24.0%
3P%
69.5%
FT%
35.0
RPG
12.3
APG
18.3
TO
82.7
Est. poss./game
61.0
Adj PPG
68.5
Adj Opp PPG
#185
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1007 (#155) | Preseason prior 1095 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1099, returning -35, transfers +31, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1020 (#143) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1019 (#143) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -6.8 (#227) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -6.9 (#227) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.345 (#188) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.338 (#231) | AdjNet -15.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.358 (#223) | AdjNet -14.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.448 (#185) | AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 68.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.448 (#185) | AdjO 60.9 | AdjD 68.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.406 (#203) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.406 (#203) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 979 (#174) | RD 180 | GP 3 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.472 (#169) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | @ | Ball State Cardinals | L | 74 - 84 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ | Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | L | 59 - 89 |
| 2026-11-11 | @ | Loyola Chicago Ramblers | L | 61 - 63 |
| 2026-11-17 | vs | Jackson State Lady Tigers | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Crislyn Rose
|
G | 3 | 34.3 | 22.0 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 17.3 | 13.0 | -24 | 3 | -8.0 | -9.4 | 40.4 | 40.0 | 90.0 | 2.13 | 54.3 | 46.2 |
Monica Marsh
|
SG | 2 | 21.5 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | -37 | 2 | -18.5 | -34.2 | 34.6 | 35.3 | 66.7 | -2.5 | 48.9 | 46.2 |
Amina Gray
|
G | 3 | 30.7 | 11.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 12.3 | -2.3 | -28 | 3 | -9.3 | -12.1 | 29.7 | 28.0 | 100.0 | -2.24 | 43.4 | 39.2 |
Jermesha Frierson
|
G | 3 | 21.0 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | -25 | 3 | -8.3 | -15.7 | 35.7 | 0.0 | 75.0 | -0.5 | 45.7 | 35.7 |
Angela Carroll
|
F | 3 | 17.0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 6.7 | -17 | 3 | -5.7 | -13.3 | 55.6 | 0 | 50.0 | -2.91 | 55.9 | 55.6 |
Audreonia Benson
|
G | 3 | 20.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 3.3 | -14 | 3 | -4.7 | -9.2 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 33.3 | -1.08 | 32.6 | 31.2 |
Maya Chocano
|
G | 3 | 16.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 0.7 | -2 | 3 | -0.7 | -1.7 | 25.0 | 18.8 | 0 | -1.67 | 32.5 | 32.5 |
Jasmine Jordan
|
F | 3 | 10.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 33.3 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.49 | 38.8 | 41.7 |
Allyson Ferguson
|
F | 3 | 12.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 1.7 | -29 | 3 | -9.7 | -31.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | -4.12 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
Jaidyn Elam
|
G | 3 | 12.0 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 0.3 | -8 | 3 | -2.7 | -8.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.77 | 5.1 | 0.0 |
Ta'Niyah Davis
|
G | 3 | 11.3 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | -30 | 3 | -10.0 | -35.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Aniyah Ruddock
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
193 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Crislyn RoseAmina GrayMonica MarshMaya Chocano
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 20-44 | 45.5 | 40 | Crislyn Rose 25% (10 pts) | Jermesha Frierson 20% (8 pts) | Crislyn Rose 33% (8 misses) | Amina Gray 12% (3 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 16-46 | 34.8 | 32 | Crislyn Rose 50% (16 pts) | Angela Carroll 12% (4 pts) | Crislyn Rose 37% (11 misses) | Amina Gray 13% (4 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 1-5 | 20.0 | 2 | Amina Gray 100% (2 pts) | - | Crislyn Rose 75% (3 misses) | Jaidyn Elam 25% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 1-1 | 100.0 | 2 | Crislyn Rose 100% (2 pts) | - | - | - |
| Mid-range right | 1-2 | 50.0 | 2 | Crislyn Rose 100% (2 pts) | - | Amina Gray 100% (1 misses) | - |
| Left corner 3 | 4-14 | 28.6 | 12 | Amina Gray 75% (9 pts) | Audreonia Benson 25% (3 pts) | Amina Gray 30% (3 misses) | Audreonia Benson 20% (2 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 5-15 | 33.3 | 15 | Monica Marsh 40% (6 pts) | Amina Gray 20% (3 pts) | Amina Gray 30% (3 misses) | Jaidyn Elam 30% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 7-27 | 25.9 | 21 | Monica Marsh 43% (9 pts) | Amina Gray 29% (6 pts) | Amina Gray 25% (5 misses) | Monica Marsh 25% (5 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 4-14 | 28.6 | 12 | Maya Chocano 50% (6 pts) | Amina Gray 25% (3 pts) | Crislyn Rose 30% (3 misses) | Maya Chocano 30% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 5-25 | 20.0 | 15 | Crislyn Rose 40% (6 pts) | Jasmine Jordan 20% (3 pts) | Amina Gray 25% (5 misses) | Maya Chocano 15% (3 misses) |