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Ark.-Monticello

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Ark.-Monticello
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 949 (#317) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 948 (#348) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 970 (#433) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +5.4 (#168) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +9.5 (#165) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.351 (#410) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +33.4 More → 0.979 (#124) NetEff +33.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +1.5 More → 0.543 (#401) AdjNet +1.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +1.8 More → 0.551 (#397) AdjNet +1.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 67.3 | AdjD 65.3 More → 0.545 (#380) AdjO 67.3 | AdjD 65.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 65.4 More → 0.638 (#113) AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 65.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.672 (#168) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.650 (#182) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 83 | GP 37 More → 1026 (#200) RD 83 | GP 37

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Northeastern St. L 74 - 79
2025-11-14 vs Harding W 75 - 64
2025-11-15 vs Ouachita Baptist W 73 - 70
2025-11-15 vs Central Okla. L 57 - 70
2025-11-18 vs Hendrix W 87 - 57
2025-11-18 vs Ozarks (AR) W 100 - 46
2025-11-20 vs Hendrix W 110 - 41
2025-11-25 vs Delta St. W 75 - 69
2025-11-26 @ Henderson St. W 95 - 92
2025-11-29 vs Ecclesia W 106 - 61
2025-12-02 @ Northeastern St. W 86 - 75
2025-12-04 vs Okla. Baptist L 57 - 71
2025-12-06 @ Newman W 89 - 59
2025-12-06 vs Southern Nazarene L 50 - 59
2025-12-09 vs Harding L 46 - 70
2025-12-12 vs Ecclesia W 84 - 46
2025-12-13 @ Ouachita Baptist L 55 - 68
2025-12-16 vs Midwestern St. W 79 - 65
2025-12-17 @ Lincoln (MO) L 61 - 69
2025-12-17 vs UT Permian Basin W 78 - 64
2025-12-18 vs Arkansas Tech W 61 - 54
2025-12-21 @ Drury W 94 - 86
2026-01-01 vs Pittsburg St. W 72 - 58
2026-01-03 vs Mo. Southern St. W 90 - 83
2026-01-03 @ Henderson St. L 64 - 66
2026-01-07 @ Rogers St. L 61 - 73
2026-01-08 @ East Central W 61 - 58
2026-01-10 @ Southeastern Okla. W 71 - 66
2026-01-10 @ Central Okla. L 86 - 93
2026-01-15 vs Northwestern Okla. L 59 - 64
2026-01-16 vs Northeastern St. L 63 - 71
2026-01-17 vs Southwestern Okla. L 62 - 74
2026-01-22 vs Southern Ark. W 68 - 57
2026-01-30 @ Southern Nazarene L 50 - 64
2026-01-31 @ Okla. Baptist L 60 - 70
2026-02-05 vs Southeastern Okla. W 70 - 62
2026-02-07 vs East Central L 56 - 75

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
D'Necco Rucker - 1 40.0 27.0 10.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 13.0 32.0 -32 -1.4 -20.7 69.2 71.4 80.0 0.17 88.8 88.5
Solomon Oraegbu - 1 27.0 19.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 13.0 9.0 55 2.9 24.5 38.5 50.0 88.9 1.99 56.0 42.3
Ashton Price - 20 33.9 15.1 5.0 2.0 0.9 0.2 2.4 10.2 10.5 -31 -1.6 -6.7 46.3 30.4 78.9 -2.08 58.1 49.8
Isaac Jackson - 20 34.6 14.8 5.0 2.4 0.8 0.4 2.9 13.3 7.0 -59 -3.1 -11.6 46.1 29.7 62.3 0.92 50.2 48.1
Max Ekono - 1 39.3 14.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 8.0 10.0 33 1.4 9.4 75.0 100.0 100.0 -1.19 82.9 81.2
Brandon Scott - 16 21.1 13.2 3.5 0.7 0.9 0.3 1.0 9.9 7.8 -9 -0.5 -6.5 42.8 37.6 78.8 0.59 58.3 53.8
Josh Smith - 20 32.5 12.2 6.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 2.0 8.1 11.2 -11 -1.8 -2.5 56.5 0 67.0 -0.77 60.5 56.5
Christian Moore - 16 26.4 11.8 3.2 4.6 1.5 0.0 1.8 9.0 10.4 -113 -5.4 -23.4 46.5 41.3 75.0 0.51 57.2 53.1
Jakob Zenon - 20 37.0 11.6 3.6 1.6 0.9 0.2 1.5 9.5 7.0 -24 -1.3 -4.9 38.9 38.4 80.8 2.14 57.6 55.5
Kameron Johnson - 16 20.6 9.1 7.2 1.4 0.8 0.6 1.6 7.4 10.2 -60 -3.0 -39.0 43.2 20.0 78.0 -2.6 51.8 44.9
Jack Hoth - 15 17.5 8.4 2.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.7 7.3 4.6 69 4.1 64.8 43.6 28.9 65.4 -1.48 51.9 49.5
Kanaan Holder - 16 17.1 8.2 2.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.1 6.5 5.8 40 2.0 27.3 46.2 38.2 67.6 -0.64 55.5 52.4
Jarren McAllister - 16 18.0 8.1 4.0 0.8 1.0 0.5 1.1 6.1 7.2 -19 -0.9 -15.6 51.5 35.7 65.5 2.24 58.8 56.7
VJ Reeves - 16 18.0 7.5 4.6 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.9 6.8 5.4 96 4.8 70.3 39.8 39.1 53.8 -0.68 52.8 52.3
Aiden Buckmon - 11 18.9 6.4 2.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.7 3.8 6.9 34 2.4 21.8 57.1 53.6 100.0 -0.38 77.6 75.0
GianCarlo Valdez - 20 33.6 6.2 5.2 3.2 0.9 0.2 1.6 6.2 8.0 -1 -0.1 -0.2 34.4 31.9 70.0 0.59 46.0 43.6
Malcolm Davis - 1 36.6 6.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 10.0 -13 -0.5 -3.9 0.0 0.0 85.7 -1.23 37.1 0.0
Zane Restelli - 6 10.6 5.8 2.7 1.5 1.0 0.2 1.0 4.7 5.5 65 8.1 267.6 50.0 41.7 66.7 -1.13 59.7 58.9
Lamont Jackson - 8 14.5 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 3.5 2.8 -10 -1.1 -6.0 35.7 21.4 66.7 -1.79 44.1 41.1
Antwan Robinson - 8 10.1 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.0 3.5 1.9 -12 -1.7 -20.7 32.1 18.2 63.6 -1.57 41.1 35.7
Donovan Black - 16 12.7 3.0 3.1 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.9 2.7 4.6 31 1.6 24.0 46.5 33.3 63.6 1.64 50.2 47.7
Robin Discamps - 1 17.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 7.0 -5.0 41 2.0 73.8 14.3 25.0 0 -0.25 21.4 21.4
Tyler Frederick - 14 10.8 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 -7 -0.4 -8.7 50.0 41.7 75.0 1.59 63.6 60.4
Jace Linenberger - 10 7.3 2.5 1.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 56 5.1 214.4 64.3 0 87.5 0.73 71.3 64.3
C.J. Ford - 16 13.0 2.2 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.6 103 4.9 73.2 33.3 20.0 77.8 -0.65 47.5 36.7
Felix Smedjeback - 20 12.6 1.9 1.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.5 -19 -1.1 -18.6 46.9 29.4 50.0 0.61 54.8 54.7
Jackson Birmingham - 6 5.9 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 - - - 50.0 40.0 50.0 - 64.4 66.7
Gianssen Valdez - 6 5.9 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 -1 -0.1 -0.2 50.0 40.0 50.0 0.59 64.4 66.7
Bryson Hammond - 13 6.7 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.7 -14 -1.2 -69.1 57.1 0 50.0 -0.26 57.1 57.1
Rex Krout - 6 5.3 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.2 -6 -1.0 -50.2 25.0 0.0 0.0 -0.01 23.7 25.0
Giancarlo Bastianoni - 4 10.1 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.8 0.8 - - - 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.46 12.7 0.0
Markece Young - 4 6.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 11 2.2 97.1 25.0 0 0 -0.31 25.0 25.0
Amar Kadic - 1 6.3 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 -7 -0.4 -3.6 0.0 0.0 0 -0.91 0.0 0.0
Sterling Rivera - 1 4.4 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 54 5.4 48.4 0.0 0 0 -1.5 0.0 0.0
Rashad Williams - 1 29.3 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 12 0.5 18.0 0.0 0 0.0 -1.01 0.0 0.0
Elem Shelby - 5 6.7 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 1.8 7 1.4 212.7 0.0 0.0 0 0.54 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG