🐻⬇️🏀

Ark.-Fort Smith

Also known as: Ark.-Fort Smith
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 856 (#483) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 821 (#492) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 966 (#529) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +1.0 (#161) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +12.5 (#179) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.388 (#406) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -11.5 More → 0.187 (#370) NetEff -11.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +11.3 More → 0.786 (#280) AdjNet +11.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +12.2 More → 0.808 (#277) AdjNet +12.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 72.3 | AdjD 64.6 More → 0.669 (#276) AdjO 72.3 | AdjD 64.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.3 | AdjD 55.5 More → 0.629 (#139) AdjO 61.3 | AdjD 55.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.621 (#253) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.623 (#249) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 158 | GP 7 More → 970 (#280) RD 158 | GP 7

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs Ark.-Monticello L 45 - 60
2026-01-22 vs Newman W 72 - 53
2026-01-23 vs Emporia St. L 71 - 77
2026-01-29 @ Mo. Southern St. L 36 - 59
2026-01-31 @ Pittsburg St. L 58 - 68
2026-02-05 @ Neb.-Kearney W 67 - 49
2026-02-07 vs Fort Hays St. L 68 - 73

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Telisha Brown - 7 28.2 12.9 2.3 2.4 1.7 0.0 1.7 10.9 6.7 -32 -2.0 -9.1 40.8 37.8 73.7 0.08 53.3 50.0
Keytonna Ross Wilson - 7 28.1 9.9 3.6 1.9 1.0 0.0 1.6 9.9 4.9 -19 -0.9 -7.1 37.7 22.6 76.9 -0.32 46.2 42.8
Haleigh Jackson - 7 26.5 8.9 4.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.4 9.7 3.0 -65 -3.1 -23.1 29.4 18.2 78.3 -1.24 39.7 32.4
Marie-Rose Priscilla BALOWA KASAMBU BABENESHA WEMBA - 7 24.6 8.4 7.7 0.6 0.9 0.4 3.0 5.7 9.3 - - - 55.0 0.0 78.9 - 61.0 55.0
Senese Rainey - 7 16.5 5.9 2.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.7 4.4 3.6 -36 -1.8 -27.9 48.4 42.9 40.0 0.54 61.7 62.9
Jordan Gregory - 7 24.1 4.9 3.3 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.9 7.6 1.1 -10 -0.6 -4.5 24.5 13.9 50.0 0.18 30.6 29.2
DAjha Horton - 5 10.0 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.8 2.6 1.6 -26 -1.6 -12.1 38.5 14.3 60.0 0.01 48.9 42.3
Jordan Gramlich - 2 6.8 3.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 -5 -0.6 -4.6 50.0 50.0 50.0 -0.78 61.5 62.5
Jah'Mareah Linville - 6 17.9 2.8 4.7 2.5 0.0 0.0 2.3 4.8 2.8 -30 -1.7 -27.8 24.1 9.1 50.0 -0.31 27.6 25.9
Ndidiamaka Chineke - 4 10.7 2.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.8 -34 -2.8 -31.7 66.7 0.0 0 -0.82 66.7 66.7
Layne Kirkendoll - 6 15.6 1.3 4.5 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.3 5.8 -68 -3.6 -24.2 50.0 0.0 0.0 -0.32 41.0 50.0
Shawna Beatty - 3 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.3 14 1.3 24.4 66.7 0 0 1.75 66.7 66.7
Taylor Addison - 2 10.8 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 0.0 -35 -5.8 -33.6 20.0 0 0.0 -1.13 14.8 20.0
Madison Young - 2 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 2.0 56.2 0 0 0 0.79 0 0
Abby Summitt - 1 11.8 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 -2.0 -9 -1.3 -16.5 0.0 0.0 0 -0.35 0.0 0.0
Caiyiah Smith - 1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 -53 -4.4 -241.8 0.0 0.0 0 -0.75 0.0 0.0
Jah'Mareah Linville-Finley - 1 2.9 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 -1.0 -11 -11.0 -80.0 0 0 0 -0.87 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG