Ark.-Fort Smith
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1156 (#17) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1215 (#31) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1175 (#23) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +19.9 (#18) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +18.3 (#73) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.734 (#194) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.989 (#96) | NetEff +43.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.878 (#161) | AdjNet +17.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.880 (#163) | AdjNet +17.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.755 (#175) | AdjO 81.5 | AdjD 69.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.715 (#62) | AdjO 82.6 | AdjD 72.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.841 (#38) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.838 (#31) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1232 (#34) | RD 133 | GP 6 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Newman | W | 94 - 87 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | Emporia St. | W | 83 - 59 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Mo. Southern St. | L | 81 - 86 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Pittsburg St. | W | 76 - 71 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Neb.-Kearney | W | 83 - 70 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Fort Hays St. | W | 87 - 77 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarren McAllister | - | 6 | 23.4 | 19.3 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 10.3 | 16.5 | -19 | -0.9 | -15.6 | 67.7 | 65.0 | 82.6 | 2.24 | 80.4 | 78.2 |
| Brandon Scott | - | 6 | 24.3 | 14.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 10.7 | 8.5 | -9 | -0.5 | -6.5 | 40.6 | 42.5 | 90.5 | 0.59 | 60.1 | 53.9 |
| Christian Moore | - | 6 | 29.3 | 13.7 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 9.7 | 14.5 | -113 | -5.4 | -23.4 | 51.7 | 50.0 | 66.7 | 0.51 | 64.8 | 63.8 |
| Kanaan Holder | - | 6 | 19.1 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 40 | 2.0 | 27.3 | 47.5 | 33.3 | 68.4 | -0.64 | 58.9 | 55.0 |
| Kameron Johnson | - | 6 | 18.3 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 6.5 | -60 | -3.0 | -39.0 | 45.5 | 0.0 | 88.2 | -2.6 | 55.6 | 45.5 |
| Aiden Buckmon | - | 5 | 22.3 | 7.0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 34 | 2.4 | 21.8 | 43.5 | 42.1 | 77.8 | -0.38 | 64.9 | 60.9 |
| VJ Reeves | - | 6 | 22.2 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 96 | 4.8 | 70.3 | 35.0 | 25.0 | 71.4 | -0.68 | 45.3 | 42.5 |
| Jack Hoth | - | 5 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 69 | 4.1 | 64.8 | 40.0 | 57.1 | 100.0 | -1.48 | 58.2 | 53.3 |
| Zane Restelli | - | 1 | 9.7 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 65 | 8.1 | 267.6 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | -1.13 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Tyler Frederick | - | 6 | 8.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | -7 | -0.4 | -8.7 | 44.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 1.59 | 50.6 | 44.4 |
| Jace Linenberger | - | 4 | 8.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 56 | 5.1 | 214.4 | 28.6 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.73 | 33.6 | 28.6 |
| Donovan Black | - | 4 | 18.5 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 31 | 1.6 | 24.0 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 1.64 | 16.9 | 12.5 |
| C.J. Ford | - | 6 | 7.9 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 103 | 4.9 | 73.2 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.65 | 13.4 | 14.3 |
| Rex Krout | - | 1 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -6 | -1.0 | -50.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.01 | 0 | 0 |
| Markece Young | - | 1 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 11 | 2.2 | 97.1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.31 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG