Amherst
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1099 (#76) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1196 (#51) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1139 (#66) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +12.7 (#71) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +12.2 (#190) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.907 (#240) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.911 (#148) | NetEff +16.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.949 (#168) | AdjNet +25.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.951 (#170) | AdjNet +24.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.768 (#192) | AdjO 65.4 | AdjD 52.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.769 (#77) | AdjO 64.6 | AdjD 51.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.825 (#118) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.826 (#117) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1231 (#53) | RD 94 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | vs | Arcadia | W | 76 - 55 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Bridgewater St. | W | 74 - 47 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Oswego St. | W | 61 - 44 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Albertus Magnus | W | 72 - 31 |
| 2025-12-09 | @ | Wesleyan (CT) | W | 66 - 49 |
| 2025-12-10 | vs | Colby-Sawyer | W | 78 - 42 |
| 2025-12-28 | vs | Gettysburg | L | 59 - 73 |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | Salve Regina | W | 61 - 47 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | Whittier | W | 48 - 46 |
| 2026-01-13 | @ | Coast Guard | L | 76 - 83 |
| 2026-01-16 | vs | Trinity (CT) | W | 61 - 50 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Wesleyan (CT) | W | 68 - 46 |
| 2026-01-19 | vs | Western New Eng. | W | 71 - 51 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Williams | W | 63 - 57 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Hamilton | W | 61 - 56 |
| 2026-01-30 | @ | Colby | W | 66 - 59 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Bowdoin | L | 52 - 57 |
| 2026-02-06 | @ | Tufts | L | 44 - 49 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Connecticut Col. | W | 65 - 38 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annie McCarthy | - | 18 | 29.3 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 33 | 1.9 | 16.1 | 45.1 | 31.6 | 79.4 | 1.06 | 55.9 | 52.7 |
| Laura Mendell | - | 18 | 30.1 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 6 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 36.3 | 27.9 | 69.6 | -0.01 | 46.4 | 40.1 |
| Chase Anderson | - | 18 | 28.2 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 8.0 | 11.2 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 39.6 | 27.8 | 64.5 | -0.23 | 47.3 | 44.8 |
| Anna Tranum | - | 15 | 25.3 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 7.5 | -8 | -0.6 | -19.4 | 38.1 | 32.0 | 82.1 | -0.85 | 47.3 | 41.9 |
| Olivia Soenens | - | 17 | 16.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 4.7 | -16 | -1.0 | -12.2 | 44.2 | 38.1 | 72.2 | 0.72 | 54.1 | 51.9 |
| Elizabeth Cain | - | 18 | 23.6 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 17 | 1.0 | 7.5 | 43.2 | 20.0 | 60.0 | -0.2 | 46.9 | 44.1 |
| Reagan Pahl | - | 10 | 22.6 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 31 | 3.1 | 13.4 | 36.7 | 36.6 | 21.7 | 1.85 | 45.6 | 49.2 |
| Brielle Renwick | - | 18 | 17.4 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 9.2 | -27 | -1.7 | -15.4 | 51.4 | 50.0 | 69.4 | 0.45 | 57.7 | 52.9 |
| Sylvia Liddle | - | 11 | 12.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 4.8 | - | - | - | 40.0 | 40.0 | 26.7 | - | 40.8 | 42.5 |
| Za'Nyah Bernard | - | 9 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 | -11 | -2.2 | -152.6 | 32.4 | 27.3 | 46.2 | 0.22 | 39.0 | 36.8 |
| Avery Myerberg | - | 7 | 16.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.6 | 11.8 | 80.0 | 0.09 | 35.3 | 31.0 |
| Macie Nugent | - | 2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 0 | 0 | - | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Brooke Ingemi | - | 11 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.5 | -26 | -2.6 | -392.5 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -0.37 | 41.5 | 28.6 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG