🐻⬇️🏀

Amherst

Also known as: Amherst
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1099 (#76) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1196 (#51) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1139 (#66) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +12.7 (#71) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +12.2 (#190) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.907 (#240) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +16.5 More → 0.911 (#148) NetEff +16.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +25.3 More → 0.949 (#168) AdjNet +25.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +24.9 More → 0.951 (#170) AdjNet +24.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 65.4 | AdjD 52.3 More → 0.768 (#192) AdjO 65.4 | AdjD 52.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.6 | AdjD 51.3 More → 0.769 (#77) AdjO 64.6 | AdjD 51.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.825 (#118) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.826 (#117) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 94 | GP 22 More → 1231 (#53) RD 94 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-16 vs Arcadia W 76 - 55
2025-11-19 @ Bridgewater St. W 74 - 47
2025-11-25 vs Oswego St. W 61 - 44
2025-12-03 vs Albertus Magnus W 72 - 31
2025-12-09 @ Wesleyan (CT) W 66 - 49
2025-12-10 vs Colby-Sawyer W 78 - 42
2025-12-28 vs Gettysburg L 59 - 73
2025-12-29 @ Salve Regina W 61 - 47
2025-12-31 @ Whittier W 48 - 46
2026-01-13 @ Coast Guard L 76 - 83
2026-01-16 vs Trinity (CT) W 61 - 50
2026-01-17 vs Wesleyan (CT) W 68 - 46
2026-01-19 vs Western New Eng. W 71 - 51
2026-01-21 @ Williams W 63 - 57
2026-01-24 @ Hamilton W 61 - 56
2026-01-30 @ Colby W 66 - 59
2026-01-31 @ Bowdoin L 52 - 57
2026-02-06 @ Tufts L 44 - 49
2026-02-07 @ Connecticut Col. W 65 - 38

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Annie McCarthy - 18 29.3 11.1 4.0 1.7 1.4 0.4 1.9 9.1 7.7 33 1.9 16.1 45.1 31.6 79.4 1.06 55.9 52.7
Laura Mendell - 18 30.1 9.7 4.1 3.1 1.5 0.4 3.3 8.7 6.7 6 0.4 2.5 36.3 27.9 69.6 -0.01 46.4 40.1
Chase Anderson - 18 28.2 8.3 6.9 1.8 1.2 2.9 1.9 8.0 11.2 -1 -0.1 -0.4 39.6 27.8 64.5 -0.23 47.3 44.8
Anna Tranum - 15 25.3 7.4 4.9 1.9 1.5 0.4 1.5 7.0 7.5 -8 -0.6 -19.4 38.1 32.0 82.1 -0.85 47.3 41.9
Olivia Soenens - 17 16.1 7.1 3.0 0.6 1.0 0.1 1.1 6.1 4.7 -16 -1.0 -12.2 44.2 38.1 72.2 0.72 54.1 51.9
Elizabeth Cain - 18 23.6 6.9 3.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.9 6.6 3.8 17 1.0 7.5 43.2 20.0 60.0 -0.2 46.9 44.1
Reagan Pahl - 10 22.6 6.4 3.0 2.0 1.6 0.5 1.5 6.0 6.0 31 3.1 13.4 36.7 36.6 21.7 1.85 45.6 49.2
Brielle Renwick - 18 17.4 5.5 5.2 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.3 3.9 9.2 -27 -1.7 -15.4 51.4 50.0 69.4 0.45 57.7 52.9
Sylvia Liddle - 11 12.7 3.5 3.7 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.4 3.6 4.8 - - - 40.0 40.0 26.7 - 40.8 42.5
Za'Nyah Bernard - 9 8.4 3.4 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.8 3.8 1.3 -11 -2.2 -152.6 32.4 27.3 46.2 0.22 39.0 36.8
Avery Myerberg - 7 16.0 3.1 2.6 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.9 4.1 2.4 0 0.0 0.0 27.6 11.8 80.0 0.09 35.3 31.0
Macie Nugent - 2 6.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.5 -1.0 - - - 66.7 0 0 - 66.7 66.7
Brooke Ingemi - 11 6.0 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.6 1.5 -26 -2.6 -392.5 28.6 0.0 66.7 -0.37 41.5 28.6

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG