🐻⬇️🏀

Alma

Also known as: Alma
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1097 (#81) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1049 (#245) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 972 (#532) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +6.3 (#124) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +2.2 (#333) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.458 (#470) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -2.1 More → 0.434 (#378) NetEff -2.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +3.5 More → 0.600 (#345) AdjNet +3.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +3.4 More → 0.599 (#343) AdjNet +3.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.0 | AdjD 64.2 More → 0.540 (#343) AdjO 66.0 | AdjD 64.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.8 | AdjD 63.8 More → 0.523 (#346) AdjO 64.8 | AdjD 63.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.496 (#386) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.501 (#379) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 102 | GP 21 More → 964 (#366) RD 102 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ John Carroll L 56 - 97
2025-11-08 vs Lebanon Valley L 61 - 66
2025-11-14 @ Simpson L 70 - 73
2025-11-15 vs Lake Forest W 90 - 70
2025-11-18 @ Hope L 59 - 85
2025-11-21 vs Otterbein W 54 - 46
2025-11-25 @ Oberlin L 51 - 64
2025-12-10 @ Hiram W 89 - 62
2025-12-20 vs Buena Vista L 67 - 70
2026-01-10 vs Trine L 47 - 69
2026-01-14 @ St. Mary's (IN) W 73 - 63
2026-01-21 vs Albion L 61 - 81
2026-01-24 vs Kalamazoo L 64 - 68
2026-01-28 @ Adrian L 67 - 80
2026-01-31 @ Trine L 37 - 66
2026-02-04 vs Olivet W 72 - 55
2026-02-07 vs Hope L 62 - 69

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Cadence Kaminski - 17 28.4 13.8 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.0 1.6 11.4 3.9 -94 -4.5 -20.4 44.6 41.9 76.0 0.4 57.6 56.0
Kate Starkey - 17 27.6 12.7 2.3 2.7 0.9 0.2 3.2 12.0 3.7 -95 -4.5 -19.9 40.7 33.3 70.0 -3.88 48.7 46.1
Breckyn Werner - 17 23.6 8.7 5.9 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.8 7.4 9.1 -29 -1.4 -6.2 44.8 27.3 89.2 0.79 52.4 46.0
Molly Deurloo - 17 28.9 8.4 5.6 1.4 0.8 0.2 2.1 8.1 6.4 -26 -1.2 -4.5 34.3 28.6 87.9 -1.71 47.2 41.6
Sarah Ebel - 17 20.6 5.1 4.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.3 5.2 4.2 -48 -2.3 -11.4 34.1 19.2 73.3 -1.31 43.0 36.9
Reese Wisniewski - 17 19.0 4.3 2.6 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.5 5.3 3.2 -39 -1.9 -11.9 32.2 21.2 66.7 1.68 39.4 38.3
Mady Weber - 16 10.9 2.9 3.2 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.3 4.0 -13 -0.7 -8.3 51.4 100.0 72.7 -0.61 56.2 52.7
Anna Waterstredt - 16 9.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.6 1.6 0.8 -67 -3.4 -57.3 56.0 33.3 66.7 -0.06 59.7 58.0
Noelle Ebel - 17 14.8 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.6 -82 -3.9 -31.4 19.4 7.7 65.2 -1.8 32.5 20.8
Taelynn Hatfield - 14 8.9 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.7 -55 -3.1 -49.4 43.5 0 50.0 0.13 45.2 43.5
Kendra Cooley - 7 4.5 1.7 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.6 7 1.0 25.9 50.0 0 66.7 1.13 53.0 50.0
Makayla Porter - 7 2.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.1 9 1.3 184.6 50.0 0 33.3 -0.06 46.3 50.0
Mackenna Weber - 13 3.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 -11 -0.7 -25.6 22.2 33.3 41.7 1.48 35.0 27.8
Maddie Stevens - 8 2.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1 0.1 5.6 66.7 0.0 50.0 -0.48 63.0 66.7
Kadyn Maida - 7 6.6 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.3 5 0.7 4.0 40.0 0 0 0.69 40.0 40.0
Grace Mitchell - 6 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 4 0.7 102.1 33.3 100.0 0 -0.37 50.0 50.0
Kaitlyn Jabczenski - 3 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 -1 -0.3 -8.6 0 0 50.0 -0.07 56.8 0
Aubri Torok - 5 1.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 -0.2 4 0.8 266.7 0.0 0 0 -0.36 0.0 0.0
Megan Leslie - 1 0.8 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 -0.1 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG