Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 806 (#612) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 768 (#612) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 848 (#724) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -14.1 (#302) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -19.0 (#673) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.119 (#723) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.109 (#636) | AdjNet -18.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.104 (#636) | AdjNet -18.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.225 (#630) | AdjO 67.7 | AdjD 81.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.230 (#726) | AdjO 67.5 | AdjD 80.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.159 (#705) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.162 (#711) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 769 (#576) | RD 107 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | Ohio Wesleyan | L | 67 - 86 |
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Denison | L | 66 - 88 |
| 2025-11-12 | vs | North Park | L | 77 - 82 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Carthage | L | 60 - 79 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Manchester | W | 77 - 65 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Saginaw Valley | L | 55 - 87 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Concordia Chicago | W | 89 - 67 |
| 2025-12-12 | @ | Linfield | L | 44 - 67 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Pacific (OR) | L | 77 - 90 |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | Westminster (PA) | L | 64 - 100 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Wis.-Whitewater | L | 61 - 90 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Capital | L | 79 - 91 |
| 2026-01-07 | @ | Calvin | L | 78 - 91 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Trine | L | 80 - 94 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Olivet | L | 69 - 77 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Hope | L | 64 - 80 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Albion | L | 60 - 87 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Kalamazoo | W | 79 - 65 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Adrian | W | 102 - 79 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Trine | L | 55 - 72 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Olivet | L | 62 - 90 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Hope | L | 48 - 80 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korbin Heitzman | - | 21 | 32.3 | 16.9 | 9.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 12.7 | 14.0 | -189 | -9.0 | -61.0 | 49.8 | 16.7 | 66.9 | -0.23 | 54.8 | 50.2 |
| Lee Hardy | - | 1 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | -35 | -1.8 | -11.1 | 63.6 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.35 | 58.9 | 63.6 |
| Conner Schipper | - | 1 | 26.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 10.0 | -2 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 42.9 | 20.0 | 0.0 | -1.18 | 45.0 | 46.4 |
| Elijah Sykes | - | 20 | 20.9 | 11.2 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | -114 | -6.0 | -49.4 | 37.6 | 34.2 | 87.3 | -0.86 | 54.3 | 48.3 |
| Porter Kretschman | - | 1 | 22.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 18.0 | -33 | -1.6 | -5.9 | 71.4 | 0 | 100.0 | -0.79 | 73.9 | 71.4 |
| Nathan Richardson | - | 1 | 30.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | -22 | -1.1 | -3.8 | 50.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 1.82 | 52.7 | 55.0 |
| Donovan Collins | - | 21 | 26.3 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | -94 | -4.7 | -52.6 | 31.4 | 28.7 | 71.4 | -0.44 | 45.9 | 42.7 |
| Josh Elliott | - | 20 | 25.2 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | -160 | -8.0 | -49.6 | 31.7 | 32.7 | 95.2 | -0.55 | 48.6 | 44.6 |
| Raine Rodich | - | 21 | 18.1 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 4.5 | -80 | -3.8 | -34.4 | 50.0 | 14.3 | 68.0 | -1.9 | 54.9 | 50.4 |
| Kayden Neiderquill | - | 1 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 10 | 1.7 | 98.8 | 66.7 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.01 | 87.2 | 83.3 |
| Joss Bradley | - | 21 | 19.3 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 4.7 | 6.0 | -118 | -5.6 | -60.2 | 42.9 | 40.0 | 57.1 | -1.02 | 49.8 | 46.9 |
| Logan St. Martin | - | 21 | 23.1 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 4.8 | 6.8 | -101 | -6.3 | -628.0 | 50.0 | 22.2 | 40.0 | 0.51 | 52.4 | 53.0 |
| Sean Shenker | - | 1 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 60 | 3.2 | 12.2 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 3.62 | 34.2 | 33.3 |
| Mike Okello | - | 1 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 18 | 0.9 | 6.9 | 50.0 | 0 | 100.0 | -0.82 | 69.4 | 50.0 |
| Jaxon Jurmu | - | 7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 0.0 | -15 | -1.9 | -56.0 | 33.3 | 30.0 | 66.7 | -0.73 | 44.0 | 41.7 |
| Preston Malpass | - | 19 | 11.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 | -120 | -6.7 | -77.5 | 29.6 | 32.4 | 28.6 | -2.84 | 40.3 | 40.7 |
| Luciano Guerrazzi | - | 20 | 11.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 3.4 | -124 | -6.2 | -39.6 | 47.6 | 50.0 | 50.0 | -0.64 | 50.5 | 50.0 |
| Jamahr Motley | - | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7 | 1.4 | 69.1 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Logan Walton | - | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 16 | 2.3 | 87.9 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Darrion Sardo | - | 6 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | -21 | -3.5 | -89.4 | 50.0 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 0.21 | 68.3 | 58.3 |
| Brighton Gavin | - | 13 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.5 | -40 | -3.3 | -45.9 | 50.0 | 0 | 70.0 | -3.86 | 60.5 | 50.0 |
| Lance Atkinson | - | 10 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 8 | 0.8 | 19.6 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 60.0 | -0.43 | 34.0 | 28.6 |
| James Dymek | - | 7 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 3 | 0.5 | 16.4 | 75.0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.59 | 82.0 | 75.0 |
| Rashad Smith | - | 12 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -22 | -2.2 | -74.8 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 0.84 | 54.6 | 50.0 |
| Tyran Griffin | - | 14 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | -10 | -0.7 | -18.0 | 30.0 | 16.7 | 50.0 | -0.03 | 38.3 | 35.0 |
| Liam Adams | - | 7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -9 | -1.3 | -57.4 | 40.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Kyler Chovanec | - | 11 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -24 | -2.2 | -77.0 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -1.55 | 19.0 | 14.3 |
| Grant Mossburg | - | 10 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -5 | -0.5 | -27.5 | 50.0 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.99 | 52.1 | 50.0 |
| Jayden Hanson | - | 2 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tucker Blemaster | - | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4 | 4.0 | 39.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 |
| Waylon Sales | - | 2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.02 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG