Alfred
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 828 (#593) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 796 (#592) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 718 (#778) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -18.5 (#351) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -18.3 (#661) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.375 (#550) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.279 (#45) | NetEff -8.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.124 (#609) | AdjNet -17.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.118 (#609) | AdjNet -17.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.236 (#617) | AdjO 57.4 | AdjD 70.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.299 (#668) | AdjO 64.1 | AdjD 73.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.137 (#723) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.146 (#722) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 627 (#639) | RD 104 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | Lycoming | L | 73 - 76 |
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Alfred St. | W | 62 - 38 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | MCLA | W | 70 - 60 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ | Williams | L | 53 - 60 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Pitt.-Bradford | L | 66 - 72 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Hilbert | L | 66 - 71 |
| 2025-12-02 | @ | Buffalo St. | L | 62 - 66 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Nazareth | L | 56 - 90 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Penn College | W | 74 - 62 |
| 2026-01-02 | @ | Grove City | L | 42 - 69 |
| 2026-01-02 | @ | Grove City | L | 0 - 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | @ | St. John Fisher | L | 49 - 67 |
| 2026-01-09 | vs | SUNY Poly | L | 55 - 60 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Utica | L | 62 - 67 |
| 2026-01-16 | @ | Hartwick | L | 61 - 63 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Russell Sage | L | 64 - 83 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | SUNY Geneseo | L | 67 - 68 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | SUNY Brockport | L | 70 - 75 |
| 2026-01-27 | @ | Houghton | L | 94 - 97 |
| 2026-01-30 | @ | Elmira | L | 62 - 64 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Keuka | L | 62 - 73 |
| 2026-02-06 | @ | Utica | L | 76 - 84 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | SUNY Poly | L | 71 - 83 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Shanahan | - | 1 | 36.4 | 24.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 16.0 | 15.0 | -7 | -0.3 | -1.7 | 56.2 | 57.1 | 66.7 | 3.42 | 69.3 | 68.8 |
| Isaiah Valentine | - | 1 | 37.6 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 16.0 | -81 | -4.3 | -13.0 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 50.0 | 1.15 | 72.7 | 75.0 |
| Jackson Rein | - | 1 | 28.0 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | -92 | -4.2 | -31.1 | 54.5 | 50.0 | 50.0 | -1.21 | 63.1 | 63.6 |
| Zion Baitey | - | 20 | 32.4 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 10.5 | 10.2 | -103 | -5.4 | -21.8 | 47.1 | 29.2 | 54.2 | -0.17 | 54.4 | 53.3 |
| Tyler Curran | - | 18 | 30.7 | 12.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 9.8 | 7.1 | -66 | -3.7 | -15.7 | 39.8 | 34.0 | 76.1 | -1.03 | 54.8 | 49.1 |
| Elisha Slabach | - | 1 | 30.1 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | -10 | -0.6 | -3.6 | 28.6 | 33.3 | 100.0 | -0.53 | 59.5 | 35.7 |
| Amoi Charles | - | 2 | 31.7 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | -16 | -5.3 | -17.8 | 46.2 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -0.16 | 54.7 | 46.2 |
| Franlys Valenzuela | - | 18 | 27.2 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 7.2 | 13.7 | -113 | -6.6 | -34.8 | 51.5 | 21.1 | 52.9 | -0.81 | 54.4 | 53.1 |
| EJ Sommers | - | 1 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | -43 | -2.4 | -32.5 | 60.0 | 0 | 33.3 | -0.54 | 52.4 | 60.0 |
| Gennaro Picco | - | 18 | 19.7 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 4.0 | -26 | -1.5 | -7.2 | 50.0 | 51.3 | 66.7 | 1.93 | 64.2 | 62.5 |
| J.J. Beagle | - | 1 | 23.4 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -63 | -3.1 | -18.3 | 75.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.47 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Noa'Sosa Friedman | - | 1 | 36.8 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | -48 | -2.4 | -9.4 | 50.0 | 0 | 66.7 | 0.37 | 56.4 | 50.0 |
| Nolan Gilbert | - | 20 | 19.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 | -83 | -4.4 | -31.8 | 52.3 | 26.5 | 83.3 | -3.99 | 59.7 | 57.6 |
| Tyler Hind | - | 20 | 22.5 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 6.0 | 0.8 | -96 | -5.1 | -32.9 | 28.6 | 31.2 | 60.0 | -2.72 | 42.6 | 41.2 |
| Dylan Shepherd | - | 1 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | -43 | -2.4 | -118.5 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | -0.68 | 41.7 | 41.7 |
| Josh Ademiju | - | 11 | 12.1 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 7.1 | -5 | -0.6 | -2.6 | 66.7 | 0 | 70.0 | 0.66 | 68.2 | 66.7 |
| Robby Hicks | - | 16 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 0.6 | -27 | -1.7 | -19.5 | 37.3 | 34.5 | 66.7 | 0.26 | 53.1 | 52.2 |
| Andria Siamashvili | - | 16 | 15.8 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | -70 | -4.7 | -31.0 | 38.8 | 29.6 | 64.3 | -0.9 | 47.2 | 44.8 |
| Ty Kuehl | - | 1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -10 | -0.9 | -35.6 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 33.3 | 1.48 | 86.2 | 150.0 |
| Hudson Hansen | - | 1 | 25.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | -32 | -1.5 | -11.0 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 0.81 | 19.0 | 14.3 |
| Gabriel Buksh | - | 1 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -41 | -3.7 | -45.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | -4.09 | 150.0 | 150.0 |
| Charlie Sims | - | 1 | 9.8 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -22 | -2.0 | -9.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0 | -0.14 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Gabe Eldaye | - | 11 | 16.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | - | - | - | 26.5 | 19.0 | 50.0 | -0.47 | 33.6 | 32.4 |
| Abdoul Toure | - | 17 | 13.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | -47 | -2.9 | -18.1 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 40.0 | -0.03 | 34.4 | 33.3 |
| Noah Mathis | - | 1 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -22 | -1.1 | -8.2 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.24 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Damon Merazzi | - | 2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -2 | -1.0 | -184.6 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.45 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Tarren Wilkins | - | 2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | -2 | -1.0 | -184.6 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.45 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Luke Penna | - | 7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | -5 | -0.8 | -21.1 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Joseph Werner | - | 7 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 1.0 | 124.1 | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.27 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Khalil Carlson | - | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1 | -0.3 | -37.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 0 |
| Isiaha Dickens | - | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -12 | -0.6 | -13.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.96 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Blackman | - | 3 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Christopher Coyle | - | 2 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 2.0 | 61.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Chris Redhead | - | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG