Alfred St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 888 (#550) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 811 (#583) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 782 (#763) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -22.2 (#378) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -31.0 (#760) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.150 (#704) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.004 (#68) | NetEff -36.9 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.026 (#736) | AdjNet -31.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.025 (#736) | AdjNet -31.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.108 (#738) | AdjO 63.7 | AdjD 86.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.128 (#772) | AdjO 65.0 | AdjD 86.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.064 (#767) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.069 (#770) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 653 (#632) | RD 100 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | vs | Hiram | L | 80 - 93 |
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Alfred | L | 38 - 62 |
| 2025-11-11 | vs | SUNY Cobleskill | W | 82 - 74 |
| 2025-11-13 | @ | Houghton | L | 80 - 83 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Juniata | L | 65 - 97 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Buffalo St. | L | 64 - 72 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | SUNY Geneseo | L | 60 - 87 |
| 2025-12-02 | @ | Keuka | W | 92 - 75 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | La Roche | L | 60 - 74 |
| 2025-12-10 | @ | Penn St.-Behrend | L | 44 - 70 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Pitt.-Greensburg | L | 61 - 91 |
| 2025-12-15 | @ | Clarkson | L | 73 - 75 |
| 2026-01-02 | @ | Cornell | L | 65 - 133 |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | Carlow | W | 84 - 71 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Penn St.-Altoona | W | 89 - 73 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Pitt.-Bradford | L | 88 - 97 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Mount Aloysius | W | 69 - 68 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Hilbert | L | 53 - 81 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Pitt.-Greensburg | L | 55 - 74 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Penn St.-Behrend | L | 45 - 68 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Carlow | L | 62 - 70 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Pitt.-Bradford | L | 92 - 120 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Mount Aloysius | L | 89 - 92 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mykell Lawson | - | 22 | 32.5 | 17.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 17.9 | 5.0 | -92 | -5.1 | -18.0 | 33.3 | 29.3 | 72.7 | -1.28 | 44.9 | 40.7 |
| LD Jones | - | 10 | 29.4 | 15.4 | 12.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 13.5 | 16.0 | - | - | - | 51.9 | 0.0 | 41.2 | - | 51.3 | 51.9 |
| Darius Cunningham Jr | - | 23 | 31.7 | 14.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 14.5 | 5.3 | - | - | - | 33.8 | 25.0 | 60.0 | - | 42.6 | 39.1 |
| Elijah Kioko | - | 22 | 16.4 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 5.0 | 5.5 | -70 | -3.9 | -26.1 | 54.1 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.16 | 58.1 | 56.8 |
| Ben Sneddon | - | 22 | 17.8 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 5.0 | 6.1 | -41 | -2.4 | -19.7 | 43.1 | 31.7 | 50.0 | 0.06 | 52.3 | 51.8 |
| Eli Taft | - | 22 | 22.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 22 | 1.2 | 6.4 | 38.1 | 27.8 | 50.0 | -0.11 | 44.5 | 43.7 |
| JJ Howard | - | 23 | 17.0 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 35 | 1.9 | 14.0 | 58.6 | 33.3 | 41.2 | 0.35 | 57.1 | 59.3 |
| Joe Bauer | - | 21 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | -41 | -2.4 | -37.8 | 32.1 | 7.7 | 56.5 | -1.52 | 38.0 | 33.0 |
| Avery Cunningham | - | 22 | 24.3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 5.1 | -108 | -6.0 | -31.5 | 33.9 | 14.3 | 53.3 | -0.67 | 38.9 | 36.4 |
| Cole Kaufman | - | 15 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | -10 | -0.8 | -35.6 | 40.0 | 35.7 | 66.7 | 0.69 | 54.5 | 50.0 |
| Hunter Streb | - | 18 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | -31 | -2.2 | -46.2 | 40.6 | 14.3 | 64.3 | 0.0 | 47.2 | 42.2 |
| Kalen Czelusta | - | 5 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Nesir Navarrete | - | 12 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | -3 | -0.3 | -6.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 33.3 | 0.98 | 15.1 | 0.0 |
| Hank Wheaton | - | 13 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 | -0.3 | -1 | -0.1 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 0.94 | 3.9 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG