🐻⬇️🏀

Alas. Anchorage

Also known as: Alas. Anchorage
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1048 (#110) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1147 (#71) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1116 (#63) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +12.7 (#67) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +12.3 (#132) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.705 (#211) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +31.4 More → 0.973 (#137) NetEff +31.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +11.7 More → 0.794 (#237) AdjNet +11.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +12.0 More → 0.802 (#232) AdjNet +12.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 72.2 | AdjD 63.9 More → 0.681 (#249) AdjO 72.2 | AdjD 63.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.0 | AdjD 61.9 More → 0.695 (#76) AdjO 71.0 | AdjD 61.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.756 (#97) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.755 (#89) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 136 | GP 6 More → 1215 (#41) RD 136 | GP 6

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-01-22 vs Seattle Pacific W 54 - 50
2026-01-24 vs Mont. St. Billings W 84 - 70
2026-01-29 @ Western Wash. L 75 - 84
2026-01-31 @ Simon Fraser W 69 - 54
2026-02-05 vs Central Wash. W 77 - 70
2026-02-07 vs Northwest Nazarene W 71 - 53

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Hasaan Herrington - 6 33.7 16.0 3.7 7.0 1.5 0.0 2.5 10.8 14.8 170 7.1 28.0 47.7 44.0 88.5 1.89 62.8 56.2
Bishop Tosi - 6 30.8 16.0 6.2 1.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 9.7 14.0 117 4.9 19.8 67.2 40.0 61.5 1.66 69.1 69.0
Sylas Williams - 6 35.6 15.8 9.7 2.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 13.7 15.0 171 8.1 31.0 45.1 31.2 68.8 2.38 53.3 51.2
Akok Machar - 6 33.1 7.5 4.7 3.0 2.5 0.5 1.5 7.5 9.2 68 2.8 10.7 42.2 18.2 83.3 0.26 47.2 44.4
Zach Ibbetson - 5 10.5 4.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.6 -55 -2.6 -26.7 61.5 62.5 50.0 0.1 79.3 80.8
Luke Johnston - 6 24.0 4.2 1.5 2.5 1.0 0.0 0.8 5.0 3.3 - - - 30.0 29.2 0 - 41.7 41.7
Cole Johnson - 6 24.0 4.2 1.5 2.5 1.0 0.0 0.8 5.0 3.3 92 3.8 18.9 30.0 29.2 0 0.18 41.7 41.7
Elijah Mobley - 6 15.0 4.2 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.3 1.2 3.3 4.5 -20 -0.8 -6.3 45.0 0.0 58.3 3.32 49.4 45.0
John McFadden - 6 9.7 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 2.5 3.8 -28 -1.2 -11.5 46.7 0 80.0 0.02 52.3 46.7
Jeremiah Coleman - 6 5.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.3 1.2 1.3 -35 -1.8 -46.2 28.6 0.0 100.0 -1.15 38.1 28.6
Jesse Stines - 4 5.8 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 -3 -0.1 -1.8 0.0 0.0 66.7 -2.14 30.1 0.0
Parker Kroon - 1 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3 -0.3 -9.1 0 0 0 -1.72 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG