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Alabama State

Also known as: Alabama State Hornets
Program History

Model Outputs

1992-1993
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 895 (#199) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 956 (#174) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +108 elo More โ†’ 1005 (#135) HCA +108 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.7 More โ†’ -5.8 (#209) HCA +3.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.6 More โ†’ -3.6 (#184) HCA +3.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.530 (#135) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -8.0 More โ†’ 0.285 (#211) AdjNet -8.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -8.1 More โ†’ 0.281 (#211) AdjNet -8.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 75.1 | AdjD 80.4 More โ†’ 0.381 (#214) AdjO 75.1 | AdjD 80.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 75.9 | AdjD 77.2 More โ†’ 0.470 (#168) AdjO 75.9 | AdjD 77.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.396 (#199) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.413 (#192) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 142 | GP 23 More โ†’ 895 (#213) RD 142 | GP 23

1993 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
1992-12-05 vs Florida A&M W 83 - 65
1992-12-08 @ Samford L 76 - 86
1992-12-18 @ UNC Wilmington L 93 - 102
1992-12-19 N Louisiana Tech L 73 - 88
1992-12-28 N Drexel L 75 - 83
1992-12-29 N Sam Houston W 82 - 75
1993-01-02 @ Georgia State L 74 - 91
1993-01-05 @ Florida A&M W 70 - 57
1993-01-09 @ Texas Southern L 89 - 91
1993-01-13 @ Prairie View A&M W 96 - 92
1993-01-16 vs Southern W 92 - 80
1993-01-18 vs Alcorn State W 97 - 87
1993-01-23 @ Mississippi Valley State L 84 - 108
1993-01-25 vs Grambling W 90 - 74
1993-01-30 vs Jackson State L 85 - 91
1993-02-06 vs Texas Southern W 83 - 69
1993-02-10 vs Prairie View A&M W 95 - 74
1993-02-13 @ Southern W 86 - 82
1993-02-15 @ Alcorn State W 85 - 81
1993-02-20 vs Mississippi Valley State W 93 - 87
1993-02-22 @ Grambling L 91 - 95
1993-02-27 @ Jackson State L 75 - 86
1993-03-11 N Alcorn State L 80 - 83

1993 Roster

No roster data available for this season.