Air Force
2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)
Model Outputs
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 776 (#301) | Preseason prior 707 (returning production + recruiting): last season 789, returning +19, transfers -74, freshmen -27 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 880 (#306) | HCA +206 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 884 (#304) | HCA +205 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -5.6 (#221) | HCA +2.2 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -5.6 (#221) | HCA +2.2 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.285 (#242) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.385 (#226) | AdjNet -0.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.387 (#225) | AdjNet -0.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.376 (#265) | AdjO 82.2 | AdjD 83.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.379 (#259) | AdjO 82.3 | AdjD 83.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.367 (#235) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.367 (#235) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 885 (#270) | RD 178 | GP 3 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.290 (#295) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | @ | Wright State Raiders | L | 71 - 102 |
| 2026-11-05 | vs | Calumet St. Joseph Crimson Wave | W | 107 - 58 |
| 2026-11-08 | vs | Idaho State Bengals | W | 89 - 82 |
| 2026-11-11 | vs | Loyola Chicago Ramblers | W | 107 - 93 |
| 2026-11-14 | @ | Pacific Tigers | - | Postponed |
| 2026-11-15 | @ | Pacific Tigers | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-21 | @ | UTSA Roadrunners | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions and box-score rates; an unlisted position is inferred from those rates, and missing rates are treated as zero. Legend numbers are each player's share of recorded roster minutes, scaled to five players' regulation minutes; they can differ from minutes per game in the roster below, especially when players miss games or coverage is incomplete. Each position column totals one regulation game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kam Sanders
|
G | 4 | 28.2 | 20.2 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 14.2 | 15.8 | -9 | 2 | -4.5 | -5.8 | 49.1 | 31.2 | 64.5 | -0.21 | 57.3 | 53.5 |
Grant Best
|
G | 4 | 30.5 | 18.5 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 12.0 | 17.8 | -18 | 2 | -9.0 | -11.5 | 41.7 | 47.4 | 92.6 | -0.04 | 61.8 | 51.0 |
Lucas Hobin
|
F | 4 | 24.8 | 16.0 | 4.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 7 | 2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 39.0 | 42.3 | 80.8 | -0.1 | 61.0 | 52.4 |
Caleb Walker
|
F | 3 | 28.0 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 10.3 | 11.7 | -14 | 2 | -7.0 | -9.6 | 35.5 | 0 | 56.0 | -0.1 | 42.9 | 35.5 |
Ethan Greenberg
|
G | 4 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | -11 | 2 | -5.5 | -11.0 | 45.8 | 27.8 | 33.3 | -0.81 | 55.3 | 56.2 |
A.J. Patterson
|
G | 4 | 17.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 7.0 | -19 | 2 | -9.5 | -19.8 | 42.9 | 50.0 | 80.0 | -0.9 | 65.5 | 53.6 |
Diggy Griffin
|
G | 1 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | - | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 86.8 | 100.0 |
Keaton Frisch
|
F | 1 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 0.0 | - | 82.0 | 100.0 |
Justin Hinds
|
G | 4 | 12.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 13 | 2 | 6.5 | 27.5 | 42.9 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 0.51 | 50.4 | 46.4 |
Brendan Martin
|
F | 4 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | -18 | 2 | -9.0 | -45.1 | 23.5 | 9.1 | 83.3 | -1.87 | 35.6 | 26.5 |
Eli Robinson
|
F | 4 | 11.8 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | -5 | 2 | -2.5 | -8.1 | 41.7 | 0 | 50.0 | -1.69 | 43.6 | 41.7 |
Mayson Thomas
|
F | 1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 61.5 | 50.0 |
Mark Caslaru
|
C | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Tre Keene
|
G | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Josh Gatete
|
F | 4 | 13.0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | -3 | 2 | -1.5 | -7.0 | 22.2 | 16.7 | 0 | -0.6 | 27.8 | 27.8 |
Wesley Celichowski
|
C | 2 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -1 | 1 | -1.0 | -3.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.03 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Riley Dering
|
F | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -2.0 | -8 | 1 | -8.0 | -114.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.68 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Elliott Taite
|
G | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Caleb Fay
|
F | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Kolby Gilles
|
F | 2 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 23.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.85 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
Alumni in the Pros
Former Air Force players in G League 2026-2027, matched by provider player ids (ESPN athlete ids, ESPN bios, linked StatsNBA/EuroLeague ids). Only games after their last Air Force game count. These are observed results, not certified complete seasons. League and team are where each player last played a regular-season or playoff game (NBA ahead of G League when he played in both); recent games include the preseason.
Active alumni
| Player | At School | League | Team | GP | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | Last game | Last 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Taylor | 2021-25 | G League | Birmingham Squadron | 0 | - | - | - | - | 11-08 3 pts, 0 reb, 0 ast Play-In | 1 GP, 3.0 PPG, 0.0 RPG, 0.0 APG |
Alumni around the leagues: recent games
| Date | Player | League | Team | Opponent | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | Box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Ethan Taylor | G League Play-In | Birmingham Squadron | @ Austin Spurs | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | Box |
2026-2027 Shot Zones
286 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Kam SandersGrant BestLucas HobinEthan GreenbergCaleb WalkerBrendan Martin
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 64-123 | 52.0 | 128 | Kam Sanders 22% (28 pts) | Caleb Walker 17% (22 pts) | Caleb Walker 24% (14 misses) | Grant Best 17% (10 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 10-39 | 25.6 | 20 | Kam Sanders 50% (10 pts) | Grant Best 20% (4 pts) | Kam Sanders 28% (8 misses) | Caleb Walker 21% (6 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 4-7 | 57.1 | 8 | Kam Sanders 50% (4 pts) | Ethan Greenberg 25% (2 pts) | Grant Best 67% (2 misses) | Kam Sanders 33% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 0-0 | - | 0 | - | - | - | - |
| Mid-range right | 3-6 | 50.0 | 6 | Kam Sanders 67% (4 pts) | Keaton Frisch 33% (2 pts) | Kam Sanders 67% (2 misses) | Lucas Hobin 33% (1 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 0-9 | 0.0 | 0 | - | - | Brendan Martin 44% (4 misses) | Ethan Greenberg 33% (3 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 2-18 | 11.1 | 6 | Grant Best 50% (3 pts) | Justin Hinds 50% (3 pts) | Lucas Hobin 25% (4 misses) | Brendan Martin 19% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 11-34 | 32.4 | 33 | Grant Best 36% (12 pts) | Lucas Hobin 36% (12 pts) | Lucas Hobin 26% (6 misses) | Ethan Greenberg 22% (5 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 7-13 | 53.8 | 21 | Ethan Greenberg 29% (6 pts) | Grant Best 29% (6 pts) | Kam Sanders 33% (2 misses) | Brendan Martin 17% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 16-37 | 43.2 | 48 | Lucas Hobin 38% (18 pts) | Kam Sanders 19% (9 pts) | Grant Best 24% (5 misses) | Lucas Hobin 19% (4 misses) |