Adrian
Model Outputs
2024-2025
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 987 (#262) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 972 (#269) | - |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +0.5 (#183) | HCA +2.4 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.276 (#547) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.269 (#308) | NetEff -7.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.391 (#417) | AdjNet -3.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.382 (#412) | AdjNet -4.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.447 (#405) | AdjO 61.5 | AdjD 63.9 |
2025 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-08 | vs | Oberlin | L | 60 - 63 |
| 2024-11-09 | @ | Hiram | L | 44 - 58 |
| 2024-11-16 | @ | Denison | L | 34 - 79 |
| 2024-11-17 | vs | La Roche | L | 52 - 62 |
| 2024-11-23 | @ | Manchester | W | 68 - 59 |
| 2024-11-26 | vs | Siena Heights | L | 50 - 57 |
| 2024-12-04 | @ | Kalamazoo | W | 63 - 60 |
| 2024-12-07 | vs | Alma | L | 58 - 70 |
| 2024-12-16 | vs | Olivet | W | 87 - 77 |
| 2024-12-21 | @ | Bluffton | L | 54 - 65 |
| 2024-12-29 | @ | DePauw | L | 57 - 87 |
| 2024-12-30 | vs | Capital | L | 61 - 73 |
| 2025-01-08 | @ | Calvin | L | 45 - 68 |
| 2025-01-11 | @ | Albion | L | 51 - 64 |
| 2025-01-15 | vs | Trine | L | 49 - 79 |
| 2025-01-18 | vs | St. Mary's (IN) | W | 70 - 57 |
| 2025-01-22 | @ | Hope | L | 46 - 97 |
| 2025-01-25 | @ | Alma | L | 56 - 60 |
| 2025-01-29 | vs | Kalamazoo | L | 46 - 48 |
| 2025-02-05 | @ | Olivet | W | 69 - 56 |
| 2025-02-08 | vs | Calvin | W | 60 - 57 |
| 2025-02-12 | @ | Trine | L | 40 - 69 |
| 2025-02-15 | vs | Albion | L | 65 - 70 |
| 2025-02-19 | vs | Hope | L | 63 - 88 |
| 2025-02-22 | @ | St. Mary's (IN) | W | 82 - 71 |
| 2025-02-25 | @ | Calvin | L | 61 - 75 |
2025 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laney Murphy | - | 1 | 33.0 | 22.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 92 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 43.8 | 46.2 | 100.0 | 0.72 | 65.2 | 62.5 |
| Morgan Babb | - | 26 | 31.7 | 15.1 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 13.7 | 10.3 | -65 | -1.9 | -1.9 | 39.5 | 25.0 | 77.1 | -0.22 | 48.1 | 42.3 |
| Samaree Perkins | - | 1 | 29.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 17.0 | 33 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 76.9 | 0.24 | 56.0 | 20.0 |
| Hannah Lisch | - | 26 | 28.6 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 10.0 | 1.2 | -40 | -1.2 | -1.3 | 33.6 | 26.4 | 65.7 | -0.23 | 43.7 | 40.2 |
| Aubrie Ickes | - | 26 | 28.2 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 7.8 | 8.7 | -5 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 44.6 | 0.0 | 63.1 | 0.51 | 49.5 | 44.6 |
| Jenna Horsley | - | 1 | 18.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 0 | -0.24 | 56.2 | 56.2 |
| Kylie Skidmore | - | 25 | 30.2 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 7.8 | -22 | -0.9 | -1.0 | 40.9 | 23.1 | 61.2 | 0.46 | 47.9 | 42.5 |
| Kya Jordan | - | 1 | 33.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 65 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 40.0 | 0 | 60.0 | 0.84 | 48.6 | 40.0 |
| Rani Thigpen | - | 1 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 75.0 | 50.0 | 0 | - | 87.5 | 87.5 |
| Kaitlyn Otto | - | 26 | 24.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | -66 | -2.5 | -3.1 | 36.5 | 31.7 | 66.7 | -0.63 | 49.1 | 46.8 |
| Darby Lienerth | - | 26 | 25.3 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | -33 | -1.0 | -1.2 | 27.4 | 20.8 | 72.2 | -0.6 | 34.3 | 32.0 |
| Bri O'Connor | - | 1 | 23.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 46 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 14.3 | 20.0 | 100.0 | 0.17 | 26.9 | 21.4 |
| Maddi Weiland | - | 1 | 26.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 41 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 0.2 | 16.9 | 12.5 |
| Ashlyn Weatherly | - | 19 | 11.3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 4.1 | - | - | - | 51.5 | 0.0 | 46.7 | - | 51.8 | 51.5 |
| Emma Mcelroy | - | 3 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | -2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 18.2 | 20.0 | 0 | -0.01 | 22.7 | 22.7 |
| Anya Riley | - | 17 | 9.3 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | -21 | -1.6 | -5.5 | 10.0 | 0 | 47.8 | -0.2 | 21.2 | 10.0 |
| Jenna Tierman | - | 24 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | -8 | -0.3 | -1.4 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 28.6 | 28.6 |
| Lauren Bartkiewicz | - | 23 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 | -4 | -0.2 | -0.7 | 22.2 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 0.14 | 34.4 | 22.2 |
| Rylee Troth | - | 21 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | - | 113.6 | 0 |
| Rylee Mcelory | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Abby Haller | - | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Aleena Mccullough | - | 2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Abigail Malone | - | 23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Makenna Johnson | - | 23 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Emmalee Wolfe-plain | - | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Rylee McElroy | - | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Abby Hall | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 58 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 0 |
| Abigayl Haller | - | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Bailey Taylor | - | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton Russell | - | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Spreen | - | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -41 | -1.1 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.62 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Nyla Washington | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 |
| Tahirah Ellis | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -12 | -0.4 | -1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenzie Weiland | - | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -27 | -1.3 | -5.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Aleyna Rick | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Olivia Rouser | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.02 | 0 | 0 |
| Izzy Rodriguez | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -31 | -1.7 | -4.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.28 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG