Adrian
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 987 (#262) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 984 (#347) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 918 (#593) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +11.5 (#81) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +4.5 (#287) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.276 (#547) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.955 (#126) | NetEff +20.3 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.468 (#366) | NetEff -0.9 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.444 (#373) | NetEff -1.6 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.391 (#417) | AdjNet -3.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.382 (#412) | AdjNet -4.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.447 (#405) | AdjO 61.5 | AdjD 63.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.537 (#321) | AdjO 62.9 | AdjD 61.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.531 (#359) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.523 (#362) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 940 (#387) | RD 101 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Hiram | W | 84 - 53 |
| 2025-11-12 | @ | Siena Heights | W | 52 - 51 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | CWRU | L | 58 - 65 |
| 2025-11-18 | vs | Bluffton | W | 70 - 66 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Otterbein | L | 57 - 68 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Wittenberg | L | 62 - 69 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Olivet | W | 82 - 42 |
| 2025-12-10 | vs | St. Mary's (IN) | W | 98 - 68 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Oberlin | W | 66 - 48 |
| 2025-12-17 | @ | Elmhurst | L | 54 - 60 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Ohio Dominican | L | 46 - 60 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Calvin | L | 39 - 61 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Hope | L | 65 - 84 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Trine | L | 50 - 68 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | St. Mary's (IN) | L | 53 - 63 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Alma | W | 80 - 67 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Hope | L | 46 - 88 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Calvin | L | 62 - 73 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Trine | L | 45 - 71 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Babb | - | 18 | 27.5 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 10.8 | 11.1 | -50 | -2.6 | -17.5 | 41.0 | 28.9 | 78.8 | -1.54 | 51.6 | 44.4 |
| Aubrie Ickes | - | 18 | 29.7 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 9.8 | 11.1 | -54 | -2.8 | -15.8 | 49.4 | 0.0 | 62.1 | 0.67 | 53.5 | 49.4 |
| Anna Ignatovich | - | 1 | 17.1 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 40.0 | 33.3 | 100.0 | - | 55.1 | 50.0 |
| Christina Malackanic | - | 1 | 24.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | - | - | - | 57.1 | 33.3 | 60.0 | - | 65.2 | 64.3 |
| Hannah Lisch | - | 18 | 29.1 | 9.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 10.7 | 1.3 | -92 | -4.8 | -32.9 | 34.4 | 22.8 | 56.0 | -3.51 | 40.4 | 39.1 |
| Madelyn Burdis | - | 1 | 29.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -68 | -4.9 | -30.6 | 37.5 | 0.0 | 75.0 | -1.32 | 46.1 | 37.5 |
| Anna Ignatoski | - | 16 | 18.1 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 6.8 | 2.1 | -39 | -2.2 | -27.2 | 35.8 | 28.8 | 80.0 | -1.44 | 45.4 | 43.6 |
| Ava Schultz | - | 18 | 29.0 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 5.8 | 5.6 | -11 | -0.6 | -3.1 | 43.3 | 22.4 | 60.0 | 2.43 | 49.4 | 48.6 |
| Sophia Bussell | - | 9 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 | -18 | -2.0 | -14.3 | 40.5 | 46.4 | 50.0 | -1.29 | 58.0 | 58.1 |
| Kaylee Bush | - | 1 | 27.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | -8.0 | -84 | -6.0 | -33.0 | 22.2 | 0.0 | 20.0 | -1.6 | 22.3 | 22.2 |
| Reese Gohsman | - | 1 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 | -82 | -6.3 | -26.2 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -1.85 | 23.5 | 12.5 |
| Alex Mitchell | - | 1 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -47 | -2.9 | -45.7 | 25.0 | 0 | 100.0 | -2.25 | 41.0 | 25.0 |
| Ashlyn Moorehead | - | 18 | 19.7 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | -12 | -0.6 | -5.8 | 32.0 | 35.0 | 61.1 | 0.79 | 39.8 | 36.7 |
| Darby Lienerth | - | 18 | 21.2 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | -45 | -2.4 | -18.6 | 28.2 | 15.4 | 50.0 | -0.04 | 33.5 | 32.4 |
| Alexis Woodbeck | - | 1 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -51 | -3.2 | -26.2 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -3.57 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Drue Allen | - | 1 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | -77 | -4.8 | -33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | -4.51 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Kinsley Hatfield | - | 1 | 28.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | -83 | -5.2 | -27.9 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2.06 | 18.4 | 20.0 |
| Caitlin Griffin | - | 7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 10 | 1.4 | 20.4 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 2.7 | 41.4 | 40.0 |
| Jenna Tierman | - | 13 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 7 | 0.5 | 13.7 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.01 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Emma McElroy | - | 16 | 7.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | -15 | -0.9 | -15.9 | 25.0 | 22.2 | 70.0 | -1.54 | 41.7 | 31.2 |
| Lauren Bartkiewicz | - | 17 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 0.2 | 6.2 | 37.5 | 20.0 | 75.0 | 2.11 | 47.9 | 43.8 |
| Abigail Malone | - | 2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 9 | 9.0 | 122.7 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1.17 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Ava Lord | - | 1 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | -2.0 | -95 | -5.9 | -39.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -4.08 | 6.3 | 0.0 |
| Greer Simpson | - | 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 6 | 3.0 | 221.5 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.47 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Makenna Johnson | - | 2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 7 | 7.0 | 60.6 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.53 | 56.8 | 0 |
| Anya Riley | - | 4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1 | 0.3 | 17.9 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.49 | 113.6 | 0 |
| Aleena McCullough | - | 6 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -0.3 | -2 | -0.5 | -10.3 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.35 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Jenna Hinzmann | - | 2 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1.0 | 12.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.48 | 0 | 0 |
| Teresa Repichowski | - | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -2.0 | -42 | -4.7 | -126.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Peyton Russell | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Kaitlyn Otto | - | 2 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Rylee Troth | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Shamiah Long | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG