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Adrian Bulldogs

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Adrian
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 850 (#579) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 834 (#563) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 778 (#765) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -15.0 (#315) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -20.1 (#687) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.173 (#691) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -13.0 More → 0.193 (#48) NetEff -13.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -15.6 More → 0.142 (#590) AdjNet -15.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -15.9 More → 0.135 (#591) AdjNet -15.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.8 | AdjD 78.7 More → 0.254 (#587) AdjO 66.8 | AdjD 78.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 85.5 More → 0.214 (#729) AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 85.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.142 (#717) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.144 (#723) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 101 | GP 22 More → 733 (#601) RD 101 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ Oberlin W 63 - 57
2025-11-08 vs Franciscan L 92 - 106
2025-11-12 @ Siena Heights L 61 - 73
2025-11-15 @ Capital L 56 - 79
2025-11-19 vs Wittenberg L 90 - 104
2025-11-25 @ Central Mich. L 67 - 112
2025-12-06 @ Denison L 73 - 86
2025-12-13 @ Dominican (IL) W 93 - 88
2025-12-14 @ Concordia Chicago W 92 - 81
2025-12-17 vs Wilmington (OH) L 75 - 97
2025-12-29 vs Bluffton L 77 - 91
2025-12-31 vs Hiram L 83 - 91
2026-01-07 vs Kalamazoo W 77 - 55
2026-01-10 vs Calvin L 68 - 92
2026-01-14 @ Hope L 76 - 86
2026-01-17 @ Trine L 55 - 101
2026-01-21 vs Olivet L 64 - 78
2026-01-24 @ Albion L 78 - 80
2026-01-28 @ Alma L 79 - 102
2026-01-31 vs Hope L 75 - 85
2026-02-04 @ Calvin L 59 - 92
2026-02-07 vs Trine L 66 - 71

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Justin Bushu - 1 20.0 17.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 15.0 - - - 85.7 100.0 100.0 - 102.2 100.0
Darrius Welsh - 21 31.9 15.3 6.3 1.8 2.1 0.9 3.3 11.5 11.6 -21 -3.0 -23.0 42.6 37.9 72.7 -0.83 55.4 50.0
Seth Logan - 21 26.5 14.3 3.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.0 10.8 7.0 -2 -0.1 -0.5 39.4 34.0 84.9 1.94 56.9 50.2
Carson Lutz - 19 22.7 9.9 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 2.2 7.1 5.5 -83 -4.9 -23.3 41.8 29.4 85.7 -3.77 56.0 45.5
George Kalatzis - 1 21.0 9.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 8.0 4.0 - - - 37.5 25.0 40.0 - 44.1 43.8
Brendon Schlink - 11 22.0 8.3 3.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.5 7.5 4.5 -3 -0.3 -6.2 42.2 32.6 63.6 0.03 51.8 50.6
Luke Rager - 19 26.6 7.7 2.3 3.3 0.5 0.1 2.2 7.0 4.7 -45 -2.6 -16.9 42.9 35.7 75.9 -1.79 50.1 46.6
Jeremiah Dallas-Martian - 20 20.5 7.0 3.2 2.9 1.9 0.1 2.6 5.5 6.9 -12 -3.0 -22.7 39.6 44.0 58.6 0.32 49.4 44.6
Danilo Rajlic - 1 29.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 3.0 - - - 20.0 0.0 75.0 - 37.0 20.0
Gavin Saunders - 10 4.3 4.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.2 2.3 2.2 -14 -1.6 -65.9 60.9 57.1 66.7 0.36 78.0 78.3
Dylan Gira - 18 11.3 3.9 1.7 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 3.6 2.8 -74 -4.6 -50.2 41.5 31.2 70.0 -0.82 51.2 49.2
Austin Burns - 15 18.2 3.5 3.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.0 2.8 5.3 -52 -3.5 -18.8 52.4 44.4 44.4 0.52 56.6 57.1
Noah Vanlaningham - 20 10.6 3.2 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.7 3.9 0.7 -49 -2.7 -34.9 33.8 22.5 50.0 0.32 40.2 39.6
Jayden Smiley - 20 15.7 2.9 2.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.7 3.0 2.7 -16 -0.8 -8.1 45.0 0.0 37.5 -2.96 44.9 45.0
Jacob Rehor - 10 8.5 2.5 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.3 -13 -1.6 -191.4 52.4 37.5 0 0.21 59.5 59.5
Lewis Covile - 15 5.7 2.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.3 - - - 28.6 18.2 57.1 - 38.9 34.3
Cayden Lepper - 11 9.0 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.4 -12 -1.2 -17.7 15.8 18.2 62.5 -0.45 28.9 21.1
Tavion Long - 4 3.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 -0.8 - - - 20.0 0 0.0 - 17.0 20.0
Austin Foster - 4 2.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 91 4.8 21.1 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.29 53.2 0.0
Curtis Dell - 6 2.9 0.3 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 -2 -0.4 -13.3 33.3 0 0 0.26 33.3 33.3
Maisen Bordchart - 1 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Aidan Wright - 1 5.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 36 2.0 41.4 0.0 0 0 0.83 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG