🐻⬇️🏀

Adams St.

Also known as: Adams St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1032 (#132) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1084 (#126) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1105 (#72) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +6.8 (#143) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +8.3 (#183) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.439 (#372) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +28.2 More → 0.959 (#152) NetEff +28.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +5.3 More → 0.647 (#332) AdjNet +5.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +5.4 More → 0.652 (#334) AdjNet +5.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 90.2 | AdjD 86.3 More → 0.587 (#340) AdjO 90.2 | AdjD 86.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 86.8 | AdjD 81.8 More → 0.611 (#135) AdjO 86.8 | AdjD 81.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.666 (#176) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.670 (#155) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 139 | GP 6 More → 1170 (#64) RD 139 | GP 6

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-01-22 vs CSU Pueblo L 65 - 73
2026-01-24 vs Colo. Christian W 94 - 80
2026-01-29 vs Regis (CO) W 114 - 87
2026-01-31 vs Colo. Sch. of Mines W 96 - 78
2026-02-03 vs N.M. Highlands W 92 - 79
2026-02-05 vs Fort Lewis W 95 - 93

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Wyatt Helming - 6 25.7 17.2 7.3 1.5 0.7 0.5 2.3 10.5 14.3 112 5.1 21.5 61.9 50.0 91.7 1.72 75.4 73.0
Dillan Baker - 6 29.1 14.8 4.3 2.5 1.7 0.8 2.5 9.5 12.2 156 7.1 28.9 50.9 34.4 80.0 2.24 65.4 60.5
Jarmell Johnson - 6 19.6 13.7 2.8 0.8 1.3 0.2 1.5 8.8 8.5 30 1.4 8.2 52.8 30.4 70.4 -0.62 63.2 59.4
Jaylen Alexander - 6 27.8 12.7 6.3 3.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 7.2 15.8 122 5.8 23.7 69.8 14.3 68.2 0.62 72.1 70.9
Luke Williams - 6 25.8 12.2 3.2 6.5 1.5 0.2 2.2 10.3 11.0 109 12.1 21.3 43.5 33.3 63.6 3.66 50.9 47.6
Emilek Jallow - 5 20.9 8.8 3.4 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.8 5.8 8.4 143 7.9 36.9 51.7 45.0 71.4 1.52 68.6 67.2
Jayce King - 6 10.9 4.8 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 4.0 0.7 24 1.1 8.7 41.7 42.1 50.0 -1.71 58.3 58.3
Jerrick Guidry - 6 14.0 4.3 2.8 1.2 0.7 0.2 1.8 3.0 4.3 1 0.0 0.3 61.1 50.0 50.0 -2.13 68.9 69.4
Nathan Day - 1 15.8 3.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 2.0 14 2.3 35.7 20.0 33.3 0 0.54 30.0 30.0
Ivan Dorn Jr - 6 10.3 2.7 2.5 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.2 2.7 - - - 53.8 0 25.0 - 48.4 53.8
Chaz Holman - 2 4.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 -12 -0.8 -54.4 50.0 50.0 0 -1.06 75.0 75.0
Tajuan Jamestown - 6 12.4 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.3 2.5 15 0.7 5.5 37.5 25.0 66.7 -2.86 48.3 43.8
Thomas Adams - 2 8.8 1.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 1.5 -9 -2.2 -18.6 20.0 25.0 0 -0.81 30.0 30.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG