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AUM

Also known as: AUM
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 889 (#385) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 798 (#521) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 853 (#572) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -4.0 (#252) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → -13.7 (#491) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.242 (#463) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +29.2 More → 0.966 (#145) NetEff +29.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -0.6 More → 0.482 (#423) AdjNet -0.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -0.5 More → 0.486 (#424) AdjNet -0.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 77.7 | AdjD 77.7 More → 0.501 (#421) AdjO 77.7 | AdjD 77.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.9 | AdjD 78.4 More → 0.244 (#567) AdjO 65.9 | AdjD 78.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.221 (#519) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.215 (#533) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 103 | GP 23 More → 788 (#457) RD 103 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs Spring Hill W 95 - 68
2025-11-15 vs Tuskegee L 58 - 73
2025-11-18 @ Shorter L 76 - 78
2025-11-24 @ Ga. Southwestern L 78 - 94
2025-11-25 vs Florida Tech L 79 - 83
2025-12-02 vs Shorter W 86 - 84
2025-12-04 @ Trevecca Nazarene L 63 - 67
2025-12-06 @ Lee L 73 - 81
2025-12-07 @ Jacksonville St. L 39 - 66
2025-12-11 vs Mississippi Col. L 78 - 82
2025-12-14 vs Delta St. L 65 - 83
2025-12-18 @ Union (TN) W 74 - 71
2025-12-20 @ Christian Brothers L 64 - 69
2026-01-04 @ Montevallo L 62 - 89
2026-01-08 vs West Ala. L 61 - 75
2026-01-10 vs UAH L 66 - 100
2026-01-15 @ West Florida L 71 - 101
2026-01-17 @ Valdosta St. L 80 - 110
2026-01-22 vs Lee L 61 - 95
2026-01-29 @ Delta St. L 62 - 76
2026-01-31 @ Mississippi Col. W 76 - 74
2026-02-05 vs Christian Brothers W 54 - 53
2026-02-07 vs Union (TN) L 64 - 71

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Chappelle Whitney - 11 26.3 16.3 5.7 1.2 1.9 0.3 2.0 13.8 9.5 -75 -6.8 -108.5 44.1 29.8 75.7 -1.61 53.2 49.7
Marius Canery - 22 26.2 12.6 3.0 2.0 0.9 0.6 2.6 11.5 5.1 -57 -2.9 -12.1 37.7 33.9 67.1 -1.32 48.7 45.0
Colby Williams - 20 27.3 10.8 5.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 2.2 8.1 8.5 -41 -2.2 -12.9 47.2 30.3 71.6 -3.62 55.5 50.3
Elhadji Thiam - 23 24.6 8.7 5.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 5.3 9.8 -83 -3.8 -19.7 56.6 60.0 62.8 -1.33 61.2 57.8
Jayden Doyle - 16 25.2 6.6 5.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 7.0 6.2 -76 -5.4 -28.3 37.5 29.2 60.9 -0.17 43.0 40.6
Jamarious Martin - 23 28.8 6.4 2.7 3.0 0.8 0.0 1.4 7.3 4.2 -75 -3.4 -15.1 33.7 26.8 90.0 -0.66 41.3 38.2
Ti'Avain Scruggs - 20 16.9 6.4 3.6 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 4.9 6.0 -83 -5.2 -31.0 48.0 33.3 47.6 0.61 54.9 55.1
Devin Barksdale - 21 20.4 6.4 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.0 1.0 6.0 3.3 -47 -2.4 -13.8 36.2 32.3 85.7 -2.19 50.3 48.0
Jacob St. Clair - 19 18.6 4.6 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.7 4.4 1.3 - - - 36.9 33.3 75.0 - 51.3 50.6
Max Ogbalet-Ndiaye - 12 14.5 4.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.5 4.6 1.8 17 1.5 16.1 30.9 31.0 75.0 -0.41 44.0 42.7
Omar Zeigler - 14 16.8 3.7 2.9 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.5 4.2 3.4 -11 -0.9 -4.5 28.8 27.6 50.0 -0.57 38.3 35.6
Jamir Williams - 5 10.4 1.8 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.2 2.2 31 7.8 320.7 27.3 0 37.5 0.52 31.0 27.3

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG