Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 50.7% | 49.3% | -1.0 | ✓ (3.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.4% | 33.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 82.1% | 17.9% | -8.4 | ✓ (4.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 66.3% | 33.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.0% | 30.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.1% | 29.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.9% | 40.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -4 (109-113). Ratings: 2026-27 ratings to date (they include this game).
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington * | 40 | 6-15 | 4-11 | 4-4 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 16 | - |
| Cooper Flagg * | 39 | 12-23 | 2-8 | 3-3 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 26 | - |
| Kyrie Irving * | 32 | 7-17 | 2-11 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Daniel Gafford * | 25 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | - |
| Max Christie * | 25 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 29 | 2-13 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 17 | 6-7 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 15 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Marcus Sasser | 7 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Sergio de Larrea | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 38 | 12-23 | 2-4 | 3-7 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 27 | - |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 33 | 6-12 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | - |
| Davion Mitchell * | 33 | 9-15 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 7 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 3-10 | 0-5 | 2-4 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Klay Thompson * | 15 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Pelle Larsson | 33 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Bobby Portis Jr. | 24 | 3-11 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 15 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Dru Smith | 14 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
* = starter